沁颍

4/1/2015

Stocks reversed Monday’s gains yesterday as potential profit-taking into the quarter end took hold.  The major indices attempted to get back to positive territory but the Bears continually beat them down. Overnight saw stock futures trade in a massive range as the S&P 500 (/ES) was off over 1.25% early in the after-market when Asian markets opened. They have rebounded throughout the overnight session but are still weak. The U.S. equity futures (/ES) are down modestly but we may be in for some volatility to start the quarter.  On yesterday’s fall in equities, option volatility rose moderately. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) jumped over 5% as stocks finished the session near lows for the day.



Treasuries are sharply higher this morning as stocks fall. The demand for Bonds remains solid as many expect the Fed to hold off on interest rate increases past the June meeting and potentially longer. Global bonds are mostly higher too. Greece exit risks are underpinning the demand. U.S. equity futures are extending losses after closing Q1 on the back foot. European bourses are mostly higher after better than expected PMI data, while Asian markets were choppy amid less positive confidence data. Today's U.S. reports will be important, but won't really alter the outlook sufficiently. The March ADP, the ISM, the PMI, auto sales and construction spending are due. Fed-speak from the doves Williams and Lockhart will be monitored too. Most focus however, is Friday's nonfarm payroll report although markets will be closed when it is released on Good Friday.



Stock Stories:

Airlines (DAL, AAL, UAL) – Standby – The major international airlines received a major analyst downgrade this morning. The analyst sites currency concerns with the U.S. Dollar and international weakness. All three stocks are down ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

Auto Sales – All Day

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications – up 4.6%

7:15 am CT – ADP Employment Report

8:45 am CT – PMI Mfg. Index

9:00 am CT – ISM Mfg. Index

9:00 am CT – Construction Spending

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories



Notable Earnings:   

Wednesday – 4/1:

Before Market:  MON

After Market:  N/A



Thursday – 4/2:

Before Market:  KMX

After Market:  MU, SKY

沁颍

4/2/2015

Stocks tumbled down yesterday but finished the session far off of lows. Private-sector job gains were weaker than expected while a larger-than-forecast drop in ISM manufacturing index suggested the economy slowed in the first quarter. Slower Auto Sales also negatively affected equities. In today’s pre-market, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are down modestly but the recent swings have created some solid volatility. On yesterday’s fall in equities, option volatility actually fell slightly. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) finished in the red as stocks closed the session trying to go positive. There were some large Buy prints on the close yesterday in SPY, IWM, DIA and the e-mini S&P 500 futures (/ES) that made the overall market spike higher off of lows.



Treasuries are higher again this morning after spiking significantly yesterday. The 10-year yield is now below the 1.9% level at 1.85% as the trend for lower rates continues. However, activity is thinning fast in Europe ahead of the Easter holiday. Stocks are little changed overseas, having pared earlier gains though U.S. futures are posting small losses. There wasn't much data overnight, but U.K. construction PMI was much weaker than expected. Meanwhile, expectations on Friday's March nonfarm payroll report are turning sour, though analysts are still forecasting a 250k increase. Stock Markets are closed tomorrow so affects from the Jobs data will come next week. Today's calendar includes February trade numbers, weekly jobless claims, and February factory orders. The Treasury announces details on next week's 3-10-, and 30-year auctions also. Fed Chair Yellen will give welcome remarks to a conference, but most likely will not say anything policy related.



Stock Stories:

Mondelez, Kraft (MDLZ, KRFT) – Busted? – The two food companies could trade actively today after both were charged with manipulating the prices of Wheat in both Futures and the Cash Markets.  The suit was brought by the CFTC, which actually oversees trading in both products.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT –International Trade

7:30 am CT – Weekly Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT –Fed’s Yellen Speaks

9:00 am CT – Factory Orders

9:30 am CT – Natural gas Inventories



Notable Earnings:   

Wednesday – 4/2:

Before Market:  KMX

After Market:  N/A



Friday – 4/3:

Before Market:  MARKETS

After Market:   CLOSED

沁颍

4/6/2015

Friday’s jobs data showed that a Fed rate hike at the June meeting may be remote. This would historically be a positive for ‘Risk-On’ assets such as equities, but corporate concerns may be weighing on markets. Payrolls on Friday showed only 126K jobs added in March, which was far lower than the estimates of close to 250K. In today’s pre-market, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are down sharply as they were on Friday’s report although markets were closed for the Good Friday holiday. Oil futures (/CL) are sharply higher despite last week’s Iranian nuclear deal as many expect supply increases won’t be immediate. Also, Saudi Arabia reportedly raised prices to Asian customers. Option Volatility should spike today if stocks remain in the red.



Treasuries are slightly lower today and will look to break its recent upward trend. As Bonds have been strong, the 10-year yield is now down to the 1.9% level. Most European markets remained shut for Easter Monday, while most Asian exchanges were on holiday too, which kept trading very light. The U.S. will open with hefty losses as the market reacts to the disappointing March jobs report. That could give Treasuries some support, even after Friday's big rally. Data today includes the March ISM non-manufacturing report, along with the Services PMI. The Fed also releases its LMCI (labor market conditions index), though it's only a compilation of previously released numbers, so won't provide much new information. Treasury supply will be a significant factor for traders this week with $58 B in coupons on tap, 3-year notes (Tuesday), 10’s (Wednesday), and $13 B in reopened 30-year bonds (Thursday).



Stock Stories:

Microsoft (MSFT) – Battleground – The software behemoth received an analyst upgrade this morning on Positive strategic positioning and price action. The stock is down over 10% this year and estimates are continuing to come under pressure on the heels of previous downgrades from analysts.  The stock is up slightly ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

8:45 am CT – PMI Services Index

9:00 am CT– ISM Non-Mfg. Index

9:00 am CT – Labor Market Conditions Index

11:30 am CT – TD Ameritrade IMX



Notable Earnings:   

Monday – 4/6:

Before Market:  N/A

After Market:  SHLM



Tuesday – 4/7:

Before Market:  GBX, SCHN

After Market:   N/A

沁颍

4/7/2015

The week started with a sharp reversal on Monday as stocks quickly bounced off of opening lows. Fed member Dudley spoke yesterday morning and once again gave Dovish comments due to the lower than expected Jobs Report from last Friday.  In today’s pre-market, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are up modestly as they attempt to extend Monday’s gains. Option Volatility was actually flat during the session despite the rise in equities. Oil futures (/CL) are slightly lower after yesterday’s rally back over $51 a barrel. The U.S. Dollar (/DX) is sharply higher this morning and Blackrock’s CEO stated that a higher Greenback may slow growth and stifle corporate results in the near-term.



Treasuries are mixed with Bonds higher but shorter-term Notes flat to slightly lower this morning. European equity markets are playing catch-up after being closed since last Thursday. Global equities are higher, in large part on expectations of additional Central Bank stimulus. Overnight, Overseas data were mixed with the services PMI revised slightly lower to 54.2, while the U.K. services PMI was stronger than expected. The U.S. calendar is thin today but the Treasury's $24 B 3-year note auction kicks off supply this week. There is also more market-moving potential Fed-speak today from the dovish Kocherlakota. Data includes just February JOLTS and earnings season kicks off tomorrow.



Stock Stories:

FedEx (FDX) – Delivered – The shipping giant announced a $4.8B deal to buy TNT Express this morning. The deal should help expand FedEx’s presence in Europe and abroad. FDX shares are up 4% ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

7:50 am CT –Fed’s Kocherlakota Speaks

9:00 am CT – JOLTS

12:00 pm CT – 3-Year Note Auction Results



Notable Earnings:   

Tuesday – 4/7:

Before Market:  GBX, SCHN

After Market:  N/A



Wednesday – 4/8:

Before Market:  FDO, RPM

After Market:   AA, BBBY, PIR

沁颍

4/8/2015

Stocks were strong through most of Tuesday’s session but failed to hold gains into the close. Small Caps (IWM, RUT) were down earlier in the day and forecasted the dump into the red near the last hour of the session. Alcoa, (AA) will be reporting its results after the close today, and investors remain concerned about the recent string of poor economic data and its effect on corporate earnings. This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are relatively flat to slightly higher ahead of the open. Option Volatility was slightly higher on Tuesday after trading lower most of the day. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) continues to hover in a tight range near $14-$15. Oil futures (/CL) are sharply lower after yesterday’s rally. There was more signs of rising inventories of Crude and record production out of Saudi Arabia.



Bonds and Notes in the U.S. are a little higher, in tandem with gains in most sovereign markets overnight. The 10-year yield has dipped to 1.85% as demand for Treasuries continues. German Bonds (Bunds) are outperforming with the 10-year rate down to a new record low at 0.15%. German manufacturing orders unexpectedly contracted and Euro-zone retail sales dropped which are highlighting risks to the recovery. Greek yields are bouncing higher, reversing yesterday's slide given little progress on a reform deal. In the U.S. today, the FOMC minutes and the 10-year note auction highlight an otherwise thin calendar. There's more Fed-speak from Powell and Dudley, but his dovish views are widely known.



Stock Stories:

Apple (AAPL) – Dare to Downgrade?!– The tech product-maker received a rare analyst downgrade this morning. Research included a lower selling price point for iPhones in March quarter and currency headwinds will negatively affect results. AAPL shares are down slightly ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications – up 0.4%

7:00 am CT – Fed’s Powell Speaks

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 10-Year Note Auction Results

1:00 pm CT – FOMC Minutes



Notable Earnings:   

Wednesday – 4/8:

Before Market:  FDO, RPM

After Market:  AA, BBBY, PIR



Thursday – 4/9:

Before Market:  RAD, STZ, WBA

After Market:   PSMT, RT