找半天没找到,原来被读美眉要求置顶了。。。
January 31, 2015
The FOMC meeting this past week sent shockwaves through the markets. The Fed continued with a go slow approach to tightening. Meanwhile, economic data were mixed, including a surprise on the downside for manufacturing. The Greek elections had little effect to start the week but then the roller coaster effect took hold. Blue chips led early losses and lower oil prices continued to downtrend. The FOMC statement weighed on equities on Wednesday but they bounced back slightly on Thursday as weekly jobless claims helped stocks. Markets continued to slide on Friday as GDP growth was sluggish. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) finished the week down 2.8% and the Blue Chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average’s ($DJI) led losses off 2.9%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) finished down 2.6% even with the massive rise in APPL, GOOGL and AMZN. The small caps (RUT, IWM) fell 2% only as it was stronger early in the week.
With equities dumping for the week, Option volatility rose significantly last week. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rallied 25% and once again settled above the psychological $20 level. The jumps above this level have increased in number and duration and volatility should remain in the markets in the near-term. The economy appears to have lost a little steam despite mixed economic signals. Manufacturing is soft—in part due to sluggish growth in Europe and Asia. And a recently stronger dollar does not help the manufacturing outlook.
Treasury yields fell in conjunction with rising demand for Bonds. The yields trade opposite the Treasury prices and the 10-year yield hit levels not seen for almost two years. The ‘Risk-off’ trade was strong as the safety of Bonds remained in favor. Oil (/CL) prices rebounded modestly for the week. Crude fell sharply at the start of the week but saw a snap-back rally on Friday to send it higher.
There will be plenty to digest this upcoming week for economic data. The consumer sector and Services industry are the focus this week. The consumer mood has been improving and several indicators will confirm this trend or not. The January jobs report for January posts on Friday and the two key questions are whether payroll gains continue at a moderately healthy pace and if wages improve from a soft trend. Personal income starts the week and a key issue is how much the consumer sector gets in terms of income. The proof of consumer strength is what drives the economy and the first January data on spending is with this week's motor vehicle sales. Earnings season also continues in earnest as the energy and pharma sectors will be in focus.
Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:
Monday:
A.M. – LII, PBI, SYY, XOM
P.M. –APC, CLF, HIG, S
Tuesday:
A.M. – AET, ADM, AN, CME, ETN, GCI, JLL, NYT, UPS
P.M.– AFL, CHRW, CMG, DIS, GILD, TTWO
Wednesday:
A.M. – AGN, CLX, CTSH, GM, HUM, MRK, MSI, RL, SMG, SNE, SO, TM, WHR
P.M. – ALL, CLR, HAIN,GMCR, SU, UA, WSTL, YUM
Thursday:
A.M. – BLL, CHTR, CI, CMI, DNKN, GRUB, ICE, KORS, NUS, PM, TEVA, USG, VLO
P.M. – ATVI, ATHN, BWLD, EXPE, GPRO, LNKD, LOCO, MCK, P, TWTR, YELP
Friday:
A.M. –AON, CBOE, FLIR, MCO, STRA
Economic Releases (2/2 – 2/6):
Monday:
7:30 am CT – Personal Income and Outlays
8:45 am CT – PMI Mfg. Index
9:00 am CT – ISM Mfg. Index
9:30 am CT – Construction Spending
Tuesday:
Auto Sales
9:00 am CT – Fed’s Bullard Speaks
9:00 am CT– Factory Orders
11:45 am CT – Fed’s Kocherlakota Speaks
Wednesday:
6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications
7:15 am CT – ADP Employment Report
8:45 am CT – PMI Services Index
9:00 am CT – ISM Non-Mfg. Index
9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories
11:45 am CT – Fed’s Mester Speaks
Thursday:
4:00 am CT – Fed’s Rosengren Speaks
7:30 am CT – International Trade
7:30 am CT – Weekly Jobless Claims
7:30 am CT – Productivity and Costs
9:30 am CT – Natural gas Inventories
Friday:
7:30 am CT – January Jobs Report
11:45 am CT – Fed’s Lockhart Speaks |