沁颍

2/24/2015

We saw another day of little action to start the week. Housing numbers were weaker than expected and Oil (/CL) fell sharply but investors ignored the news and we finished the day essentially flat. This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are flat again as traders look for direction. Traders will watch more Housing data today but the main focus will be on Fed Chair Yellen’s testimony to Congress over the next two days.  Investors will watch for any hawkish tone to her statements as employment and growth seems to warrant higher interest rates. Some say she could surprise investors by keeping alive the possibility of a June rate hike, even though the minutes of the most recent Federal Reserve meeting showed a dovish tone. She also could provide some additional volatility to the markets which has been muted recently.  



Bonds are a little lower, in tandem with modest losses in core European sovereigns as Greece is close to finalizing its bailout extension. The 10-year Treasury yield has edged up to 2.07%. Trading was rather restrained, however, as the market awaits Fed Chair Yellen's testimony. There wasn't much news overnight. Japanese services PPI fell 0.5% in January, while Euro-zone data was as expected, with German Q4 GDP at 0.7%. Attention will be squarely focused on Yellen today and what she might suggest about the policy path. Today's data on February consumer confidence, the December Case-Shiller home price index and weekly chain store sales will be overlooked. The Treasury is auctioning $26 B in 2-year notes, kicking off $90 B in 2-, 5-, and 7-year note offerings over the next three days.



Stock Stories:

Home Depot (HD) –Cleaning up – The home improvement retailer posted another blow-out quarter this morning on its earnings call. Better than expected EPS and Revenue showed continued strong growth as the stock sits at all-time highs. The shares are up 3.5% ahead of the opening bell, which is slightly more than the option market was pricing in.  



Major Economic Reports:

8:00 am CT – S&P Case-Shiller HPI

9:00 am CT– Consumer Confidence

9:00 am CT – Fed’s Yellen Speaks

9:00 am CT – Richmond Fed Mfg. Index

12:00 pm CT – 2-Year Note Auction Results



Notable Earnings:   

Tuesday – 2/24:

Before Market:  AMT, BMO, CMCSA, DPZ, DYN, HD, KATE, M, ODP, SPWR, TOL, VRX, VAL

After Market:  CLR, CLGX, FSLR, HPQ, PZZA, SINA, WBMD



Wednesday – 2/25:

Before Market:  CPB, CHK, DLTR, LOW, SODA, TGT, TJX

After Market: CRM, DRYS, LB, RIG, TIVO, WDAY

沁颍

2/25/2015

The Benchmark S&P 500 index (SPX) and the small cap sector (RUT, IWM) rose to another round of all-time highs yesterday. Testimony from Fed Chair Yellen yesterday reiterated that the Fed would take a patient approach to raising interest rates. This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are slightly lower as traders look for a catalyst to bring back movement and volumes. Traders will watch more Housing data today but the main focus will be on Fed Chair Yellen’s second day of testimony to the House.  Option volatility sank as stocks ground higher. The low volume totals are showing that the rally is not fully supported but the trend is higher. The CBOE Volatility index (VIX) settled below $14 for the first time since the beginning of December.   



Treasuries are little changed to slightly higher on follow-through from Yellen's testimony yesterday. The 10-year yield has dipped to 1.97% and a close here would be the lowest since the first week of February. Bonds rallied sharply on Tuesday with the thought that rates will remain lower and the hike won’t come until after the summer. Global bonds are higher as well this morning and Germany sold 5-year notes at a negative yield of -0.08%. Stocks are mostly lower even after China's manufacturing PMI beat expectations as growth worries remain. There's also concern Greece will not be able to meet its obligations. The markets will focus on Yellen's House testimony today, though analysts doubt she will change her tune. The Treasury auctions $35 B in 5-year notes and data includes January new home sales. The MBA reported a 3.5% decline in mortgage applications for the week ended February 20 and continues to weaken despite low rates.



Stock Stories:

First Solar (FSLR) –renewable – The solar company had a mixed earnings report last night after the closing bell. Although guidance was lowered, the company had announced a partnership with another company for future investments yesterday, which had the shares up over 10% on Tuesday. We have a couple of analyst upgrades this morning and the stock is reacting positively as it is up over 2% ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications – Down 3.5%

9:00 am CT – New Home Sales

9:00 am CT – Fed’s Yellen Speaks

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 5-Year Note Auction Results



Notable Earnings:   

Wednesday – 2/25:

Before Market:  CPB, CHK, DLTR, LOW, SODA, TGT, TJX

After Market:  CRM, DRYS, LB, RIG, WDAY



Thursday – 2/26:

Before Market:  BUD, DDD, GOGO, KSS, RBS, SHLD, TWI, TD

After Market: CROX, GPS, HLF, JCP, ROST, SWN, YOKU

沁颍

2/26/2015

The Dow Industrials ($DJI) closed at another all-time high yesterday in another quiet session. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) and the small cap sector (RUT, IWM) also hit record levels yesterday afternoon before falling towards the close. The Nasdaq broke its 10-day winning streak as Apple (AAPL) shares were weak. This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are slightly higher as investors ignore any negative news.  The final day of testimony from Fed Chair Yellen yesterday did little to stop the Bulls but the exchanges were a little more heated with the House members. Option volatility was also muted on Wednesday as equities were mixed. There is plenty of data due today to sway stocks and hopefully we will see some additional movement. Comments this morning from noted Fed Hawk Bullard stated that they should remove the word ‘patient’ from their statement and have a clear path to a rate hike, which could also move stocks.



Global bonds are higher today and have been trending up this week. Many Euro-zone yields have dropped to new all-time lows after dovish Draghi comments late yesterday and ahead of the start of their QE. Bond gains comes despite some better European data and gains in equities. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 1.94%, still driven lower from Yellen's testimony. Today's highlight is the January CPI report where there is risk the y/y pace falls into negative territory. Also today is the January durable orders data, as well as weekly initial jobless claims and the FHFA home price index for December. The Treasury auctions $29 B in 7-year notes to finish up supply this week. Focus will then move to Friday’s Q4 GDP which will be reported and it is expected to be revised lower.



Stock Stories:

Starbucks (SBUX) –buzzing – The coffee giant got more price target upgrades over the last couple of days.  Comments from the CFO and optimism on growth has Wall Street pushing shares to additional all-time highs. The valuation is rising and the shares are up slightly ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – Weekly Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT – Consumer Price Index

7:30 am CT – Durable Goods Orders

8:00 am CT – FHFA House Price Index

9:30 am CT – Natural gas Inventories

11:40 am CT – Fed’s Lockhart Speaks

12:00 pm CT – 7-Year Note Auction Results



Notable Earnings:   

Thursday – 2/26:

Before Market:  BUD, DDD, GOGO, KSS, RBS, SHLD, TWI, TD

After Market:  CROX, GPS, HLF, JCP, ROST, SWN, YOKU



Friday – 2/27:

Before Market:  ISIS, NRG

After Market: N/A

沁颍

2/27/2015

Stocks finished the day mixed yesterday and were led by the tech heavy Nasdaq (QQQ), which rallied on the back of Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOG/GOOGL) and Facebook (FB). This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are slightly lower ahead of a key update on Gross Domestic Product (GDP).  Investors will use the GDP data to see if the economy’s growth is still present. The number is expected to be revised as fourth quarter preliminary expectations have been brought down. Anything above 2% will most likely be positive for equities. Option volatility was also muted on Thursday as equities continue to chop in a tight range near all-time highs. Thursday’s data was again mixed but had little negative effect on U.S. Stocks.



Bonds are lower again today after a turn lower yesterday. The 10-year yield popped back over 2% on Thursday as Treasuries were under pressure into the close. There is more rhetoric in the Euro-Zone as there are expectations that Greece will need a third bailout. Germany continues to push the issue in the media and comments by the European economic leaders are not favorable to Greece. It will be interesting to see if stocks can hold their high levels into the weekend. Today's highlights besides the GDP data are the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index and Consumer Sentiment.  



Stock Stories:

Exxon Mobil (XOM) –Slipping on Oil – The energy company’s stock continues to fall as oil prices weaken.  Despite the dump in shares, we saw massive call buying in the option market, which may be signaling the thought of a near-term bottom in the stock. This morning, the shares are up slightly ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – GDP

8:45 am CT– Chicago PMI

9:00 am CT – Consumer Sentiment

9:00 am CT – Pending Home Sales Index

Fed’s Dudley Speaks

Fed’s Mester Speaks

Fed’s Fischer Speaks



Notable Earnings:   

Friday – 2/27:

Before Market:  ISIS, NRG

After Market:  N/A



Monday – 3/2:

Before Market:  AMBC, BID, SSYS

After Market: ARNA, CZR, MBI, MCP, MYL, SLXP

沁颍

March 1, 2015

We saw another slow week on Wall Street as stocks feel like they are topping out near all-time highs. Despite the muted moves this week, the Benchmark S&P 500 Index (SPX) notched its largest one-month gain since October 2011 by rallying 5.5% in February. The rallies were never massive but the grind higher was consistent for almost the entire month. The accommodative stance from Central Banks around the world had investors pouring into the riskier asset classes such as stocks. Volumes continued to be light and the daily moves only averaged less than 0.5% in either direction. Many are predicting a more volatile month in March but we will need geopolitical news and economic data to drive markets as earnings season is essentially over. Almost 90% of the S&P 500 stocks have reported quarterly results and just under 70% have beaten expectations compared with 74% at the same time last year. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) and the Blue Chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average’s ($DJI) were basically flat as were the tech-heavy Nasdaq (QQQ) and the small caps (RUT, IWM).



With equities trending near the flat line all week, Option volatility only fell slightly. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell another 6.7% and is approaching the multi-year support level near $12.  The ‘Fear Gauge’ should see some additional movement into March as investors may feel the all-time highs are due for a pull-back. The economy continues to grow but not consistently. The bright spot continues to be the consumer due in part to healthy optimism from declining inflation and energy prices. Geopolitical risks may increase also as Greece and the ‘cease fire’ in Ukraine seem to be coiling for a catalyst. Treasury yields fell this past week as the Dovish comments from Fed members put a small bid in Bonds. The 10-year yield fell to 2% and Fed-Speak continues to move bonds prices quickly. Oil futures (/CL) fell modestly this past week as supply and production remains at elevated levels.  Rig counts are falling but it has not boosted crude prices at all.



While the fourth quarter got a downgrade, current quarter growth for monthly data are mixed but net moderately positive. Meanwhile, the Fed confirmed that the first rate hike would be no sooner than June. The upcoming week is full of economic data and the all-important Jobs report comes out on Friday. Housing has been mixed but many are predicting a tough Spring selling season.  Traders will be watching news on manufacturing and Services this week also. Fed Chair Yellen is speaking again on Tuesday and there will be plenty of Fed-Speak on tap also.


Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:

Monday:

A.M. – AMBC, BID, SSYS

P.M. –ARNA, CZR, MBI, MCP, MYL, SLXP



Tuesday:

A.M. – AZO, BBY, DKS, KATE, RST

P.M.– BOBE, SWHC



Wednesday:

A.M. –  ANF, AEO, PETM, REV, TSL

P.M. – DAR, VSLR



Thursday:

A.M. – CNQ, CIEN, COST, JOY, KR, SFE

P.M. – CKP, DMND, MMI, QIHU, SINA, TFM  



Friday:

A.M. –BIG, FL, SPLS



Economic Releases (3/2 – 3/6):

Monday:

7:30 am CT – Personal Income & Outlays

8:45 am CT– PMI Mfg. Index

9:00 am CT – ISM Mfg. Index

9:00 am CT – Construction Spending

                                                                                                                                                                              

Tuesday:

Auto Sales – All Day

7:15 pm CT – Fed’s Yellen Speaks

                                                                                                                                                                                                        

Wednesday:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

7:15 am CT – ADP Employment Report

8:00 am CT – Fed’s Evans Speaks

8:45 am CT – PMI Services Index

9:00 am CT – ISM Non Mfg. Index

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

12:00 pm CT –Fed’s George Speaks

12:00 pm CT –Fed’s Fisher Speaks

1:00 pm CT – Beige Book



Thursday:

7:30 am CT – Weekly Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT – Productivity & Costs

9:00 am CT – Factory Orders

9:30 am CT – Natural gas Inventories

                                                                                                                                                                                                   

Friday:

7:30 am CT – February Jobs Report

7:30 am CT– International Trade

2:00 pm CT – Consumer Credit

沁颍

3/2/2015

We saw a slight pull-back to end the week last Friday but momentum higher was strong last month. This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are mixed to start March.  There is plenty of economic data due this week and we wrap up with the February Jobs data on Friday. Oil (/CL) is falling today and is now back below $49 a barrel again. The consumer is holding up the economy at this point as spending has been solid. Option volatility continues to slide as downside catalysts dry up but hopefully we will see some additional movement this week.



Treasuries are flat this morning as investors look for direction. The 10-year Treasury yield fell is back to the 2% level after rising the last two weeks. European stocks are higher as the Euro-Zone posted its lowest jobless rate since 2012. Also, Euro-zone consumer prices fell for the third straight month in February, giving some encouragement to ECB policy makers as they prepare to meet in Cyprus on Wednesday and Thursday to set the stage for their new stimulus program. Asian stocks edged up on Monday after China cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point over the weekend and its PMI climbing to its strongest level since July. In the U.S., Manufacturing data is due today along with a reading on Construction Spending.



Stock Stories:

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) –Sold! – The company sold its Cordis business to Cardinal Health (CAH) for almost $2B. The company’s shares are up slightly ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – Personal Income & Outlays

8:45 am CT– PMI Mfg. Index

9:00 am CT – ISM Mfg. Index

9:00 am CT – Construction Spending



Notable Earnings:   

Monday – 3/2:

Before Market:  AMBC, BID, SSYS

After Market:  ARNA, CZR, MBI, MCP, MYL, SLXP



Tuesday – 3/3:

Before Market:  AZO, BBY, DKS, KATE, RST

After Market: BOBE, SWHC

沁颍

3/3/2015

The grind to another round of all-time highs took place to start the month of March. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (COMP) settled above $5K for the first time in 15 years yesterday and had its third highest close ever. The comparison is not meaningful as there are now only 48% of the components reflected as tech companies when 15 years ago it was about 65%. This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are slightly lower.  There is plenty of economic data due this week and we wrap up with the February Jobs data on Friday. No major catalyst is expected to emerge today, as little economic data is expected to be released. The only major economic data point expected to be unveiled today is auto sales, which takes place throughout the day.



Bonds are lower again today after a massive dump to start the week. The 10-year yield rose back to the 2.1% level and lower Treasury prices are most likely supporting higher equites. European data was mixed with stronger than expected German retail sales, U.K. construction PMI, while Euro-zone PPI was weaker. The U.S. calendar is very slim today with just February vehicle sales and a speech by Yellen tonight. The markets are bracing for key reports later in the week with Friday's February nonfarm payroll release topping the list. Wednesday's slate has February ADP, the ISM services index, along with the Fed's Beige Book. Traders are also awaiting QE details from the ECB on Thursday.



Stock Stories:

Best Buy (BBY) –Plugged in! – The company reported earnings this morning and the results were mixed as Revenue came in light. The company did raise its quarterly Dividend and intends to buy back $1B in shares over the next three years. The shares are up over 4% ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

Auto Sales– All Day

7:15 pm CT – Fed’s Yellen Speaks



Notable Earnings:   

Tuesday – 3/3:

Before Market:  AZO, BBY, DKS, KATE, RST

After Market:  BOBE, SWHC



Wednesday – 3/4:

Before Market: ANF, AEO, PETM, REV, TSL

After Market: DAR, VSLR

沁颍

3/4/2015

If you blinked yesterday, you missed an actual down day for stocks. We had broad-based selling and finally saw some substantial volume in the option markets. This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are lower again ahead of the private sector ADP jobs report.  Payrolls are forecast rising 220k after the disappointing 213k January gain. Option volatility rose as stocks hit the brakes yesterday, albeit modestly. The ‘Fear Gauge’ (VIX) rallied 6% and may be in for some more gains today. Despite all the geopolitical risks and mediocre economic data, investors have been ignoring much downside risk protection according to the markets.



Treasuries are relatively flat after paring earlier losses overnight and since the start of the week. The 10-year note is fractionally cheaper at 2.12% but has seen a nice move higher so far this week. Most equity markets are in the red as well as recent data suggest ongoing central bank accommodation will be coming to an end. Ironically, the Bank of India surprised with its second inter-meeting rate cut in 2 months, trimming it key rate another 25 bps to 7.5%, and the Bank of China also lowered rates further on some short term loans. Meanwhile, Euro-zone and U.K. services PMIs unexpectedly dipped lower, though the numbers still point to solid expansion in the sector. The ECB is expected to leave policy unchanged tomorrow while announcing QE details. There could also be details on whether Greek bonds will be reinstated by the group. Attention is shifting to the ADP private payroll report ahead of Friday's February employment release. Also out today is the February ISM services index and the Fed's Beige Book, which should not break any new ground. There is also Fed-speak from the Uber-Dovish Evans, and the Hawks George and Fisher.



Stock Stories:

Kohls (KSS) –Sold?! – The retailer’s shares are just below all-time highs and are up 22% since the start of 2015. The stock looks overbought on a technical level and is over $10 above its 50-day moving average. A pull-back may be warranted as valuations rise and the shares are flat ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications – up 0.1%

7:15 am CT – ADP Employment Report

8:00 am CT – Fed’s Evans Speaks

8:45 am CT – PMI Services Index

9:00 am CT – ISM Non Mfg. Index

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

12:00 pm CT –Fed’s George Speaks

12:00 pm CT –Fed’s Fisher Speaks

1:00 pm CT – Beige Book



Notable Earnings:   

Wednesday – 3/4:

Before Market:  ANF, AEO, PETM, REV, TSL

After Market:  DAR, VSLR



Thursday – 3/5:

Before Market: CNQ, CIEN, COST, JOY, KR, SFE

After Market: CKP, DMND, MMI, QIHU, SINA, TFM

沁颍

Weekend Update March 8, 2015

U.S. Markets took a gut shot on Friday after the ultra-bullish announcement of 295K new Jobs created in February inversely hinted towards an earlier than expected rate hike disappointment.  Even though the quality of job creation remains questionable with the leisure and hospitality sector seeing the greatest benefit, every other category with the exception of mining/logging still saw modest improvement.   The big concern at this stage of the cycle if new highs can still be recorded in this type of environment with rising rates and a stronger dollar.



The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) screamed 8% higher on Friday as momentum to the downside accelerated throughout the day.  Seeing some stability this week will be paramount if the aging bullish trend is to continue.  Gold Futures (/GC) had a tough week and closed at the low point of the year after giving up an astonishing $30 per ounce intra-day.  The typical safe haven play is expected to now have more competition within other asset classes should rates inch higher.  The other big surprise coming out of last week was the 10 Year Treasury’s rapid climb to 2.25% as rates have seen a tectonic shift in sentiment over a rather short time frame.



Earnings season is all but winding down with the exception of several key retail names slated to report during the course of the week.  With both monthly retail sales and consumer sentiment numbers also scheduled;  the importance of a strong consumer showing can’t be underestimated as the discounted price of oil should convert into more discretionary spending.  Another key retail headline will be Apple’s unveiling of the much anticipated  watch tomorrow.  This event will open the next chapter in Apple’s ongoing success story and the stakes couldn’t be higher with the building hype surrounding the product.  News of Apple replacing AT&T for a coveted spot in the DJIA boosted shares on Friday in wake of the broad-based selloff.



A wildcard to watch for this week will be the results of the Bank Stress tests scheduled for Wednesday immediately follow the market close.  The eventual rate hike may benefit banks over the long term if reserve requirements remain in check.  Any failures may potentially spark apprehension which could further impact the fragility of the market.


Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:



Monday:

A.M. – N/A

P.M. –CASY, KFY, QIHU, UNFI, URBN



Tuesday:

A.M. – BKS

P.M.– PAY, WSM



Wednesday:

A.M. –BWS, EXPR, URA

P.M. –KKD, SHAK



Thursday:

A.M. – DG, HOV, MTN, PLCE

P.M. –  ARO, LOCO, ULTA, ZUMZ



Friday:

A.M. –BKE, HIBB, TA

P.M. –N/A



Economic Releases (3/9 – 3/13):



Monday:

9:00 am CT – Labor Market Conditions



Tuesday:

8:00 am CT – Small Business Index

9:00 am CT – JOLTS

9:00 am CT – Wholesale Inventories



Wednesday:

9:30 am Oil Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 10 Year Bond Auction

1:00 pm CT – Federal Budget Balance

3:30 pm CT – Bank Stress Test Results



Thursday:

7:30 am CT – Weekly Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT – Retail Sales

7:30 am CT – Import Prices

9:30 am CT – Natural gas Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 30 Year Bond Auction



Friday:

7:30 am CT – Producer Price Index (PPI)

9:00 am CT–Consumer Sentiment

沁颍

3/9/2015

US Equity markets are stabilizing this morning after Friday’s big flush with S&P 500 futures (/ES) now up fractionally.   The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) will be an important gauge after reaching $15 with Friday’s route to determine how cautious investors remain going forward.  Shares in Europe and Asia were mostly lower as global markets reacted to the U.S based employment news pricing in the higher probabilities of a rate hike sometime over the next quarter.  Europe may begin to see more attention as they make ready plans to inject more liquidity into their financial system to spur growth while at the same time the US tries to normalize.



Treasuries are flat this morning after the steep hike in recent sessions fueled the perception of an expedited rate hike . Treasury auctions will be taking place throughout the week which may offer more insight into the sentiment of future expectations.   Mortgage applications will also be watched closely as well approaching the busy session for tepid homebuyers to determine if higher rates will stall out the recent recovery.



Domestic news will be mutes today with only Labor Market Conditions scheduled to be released.  Apple will likely grab most of the headlines today as a result with the unveiling of their newest watch product at a 12:00 CT exclusive release event. Shares are trading slightly higher ahead of the bell as a result with anticipation building.  Retail stocks in general will garner more attention throughout this week with several specialty stores reporting earnings throughout the next several sessions before the monthly retail report will cap off Friday.



Stock Stories:

General Motors  (GM) –What’s $5 Billion?  – The company announces a new capital plan capped by a $5 Billion buyback to squash an ongoing proxy fight which also included a coveted board seat.  Shares are up over 3% pre-market as a result.



McDonald’s  (MCD) –Mc hating it?  –Shares of McDonalds are down sharply this morning after another disappointing monthly sales report posted a 4% decline in same store sales. The company continues to scramble with new CEO on board to fix their perception problem as consumers continue to choose alternatives.   



Major Economic Reports:

9:00 am CT – Labor Market Conditions



Notable Earnings:   



Monday – 3/9:

Before Market:  N/A

After Market:  CASY, KFY, QIHU, UNFI, URBN



Tuesday – 3/10:

Before Market:  BKS

After Market: PAY, WSM

沁颍

3/10/2015

Yesterday saw a reversal higher from last Friday’s sell-off but moderate volumes showed little affirmation towards further highs. This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are sharply lower as a Fed rate hike has investors concerned. The U.S. Dollar (/DX) is surging higher against overseas rivals. Multi-year highs and heavy volume into the Greenback could provide the rally with more ammo. Monday marked the sixth year anniversary of the Bull Market on Wall Street and many feel we are due for a pull-back as valuations on equities rise.  The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell modestly to start the week but should spike higher if stocks remain in the red today.  



With the dump in stocks, Treasuries are catching a bid and will try to continue yesterday’s strength. The 10-year note is cheaper at 2.15% but may have a support base in if the call for higher rates from the Fed starts in June. An article in the Wall Street Journal also stated that the Fed will drop ‘Patient’ from its statement at next week’s FOMC policy meeting. Overseas is also seeing weakness as Asia finished moderately lower and European shares are continuing to slide into the U.S. open. The 3-year auction headlines in the U.S. today, and will test investor demand. Data is light today with just January JOLTS, January wholesale trade, and weekly chain store sales. Fed-speak will go dark into next week's FOMC meeting. Key data this week is back-ended to Thursday with retail sales and trade prices, and to Friday with PPI and consumer sentiment



Stock Stories:

Qualcomm (QCOM) –All in – The tech chip-maker announced a $15B share buyback plan after the close yesterday. The company has struggled on its last couple of earnings calls but this should appease investors as the financial engineering continues to help stock prices. They also raised their quarterly Dividend on the business update and the shares are up 2% ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

8:00 am CT – Small Business Index

9:00 am CT – JOLTS

9:00 am CT – Wholesale Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 3-Year Note Auction Results



Notable Earnings:   

Tuesday – 3/10:

Before Market:  BKS

After Market:  SINA



Wednesday – 3/11:

Before Market: EXPR, VRA

After Market: KKD, MCP, MW, RST, SHAK

沁颍

3/11/2015

Yesterday was brutal for stocks as sellers were out in full force. The Benchmark S&P 500 Index (SPX) fell by 1.7% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (QQQ) dropped by 1.86% led by losses in Apple (AAPL). U.S. equity futures (/ES) this morning are showing a slight bounce off of the closing lows. The U.S. Dollar (/DX) is surging higher again today and is also being partially blamed for the recent weakness in equities. The Greenback is at levels not seen for 12 years and may be trending to trade even with the Euro.  Despite the massive slide in stocks yesterday, option volatility only rose modestly. Typically when stocks fall over 1.5% in one session, we see volatility pop significantly from the recent low levels.   The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose 10% but may give some of the gains back today if equities remain in positive territory.  



Treasuries have drifted lower, giving up gains from overnight as risk appetite rebounds. The 10-year Treasury yield has edged up to 2.15% after hitting 2.09% earlier. European bonds remain higher and the 10-year Bund rate has bounced off a record low of 0.197%. Euro-Zone equities have surged sharply higher as prices recover from yesterday's plunge despite renewed Grexit fears and disappointing U.K. production data. There's little on the U.S. calendar today. The MBA just reported mortgage applications slid 1.3% in the week ended March 6. The February Treasury budget and weekly oil inventories are the only other releases. The Treasury's $21 B 10-year reopening is on tap following a very successful 3-year sale on Tuesday.



Stock Stories:

Citigroup (C) –Beat down – The banking giant fell over 3% on Tuesday as the sector took a beating. Lower rates were the culprit and will drive future movement into next week’s FOMC policy meeting. The shares are bouncing slightly today as they are up ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications – Down 1.3%

9:30 am CT - Oil Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 10 Year Bond Auction

1:00 pm CT – Treasury Budget



Notable Earnings:   

Wednesday – 3/11:

Before Market:  EXPR, VRA

After Market:  KKD, MCP, MW, RST, SHAK  



Thursday – 3/12:

Before Market:  DG, HOV, JASO, MTN, REV

After Market: ARO, LOCO, ULTA, ZUMZ

沁颍

3/12/2015

Traction was still to the downside yesterday for stocks as the rising U.S. Dollar (/DX) continues to weigh on equities. We are seeing a reversal lower this morning in the Greenback and the inverse correlation may continue. U.S. equity futures (/ES) this morning are showing a slight bounce off of the closing lows. Despite the continued weakness in stocks, option volatility remains tepid. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose minimally yesterday but on recent drops in equities, we have seen more strength in the ‘Fear Gauge’. If the weakness continues, we could see the VIX pop back over $20 quickly as complacency for another ‘Buy the Dip’ has expanded.



Treasuries are higher in conjunction with gains in European and Asian bonds. The 10-year yield has dropped several basis points closer to 2.05% on strong trading volume. There was more two-way trading in the dollar versus yesterday's one-way ticket higher. The Bank of Korea unexpectedly cut rates 25 bps to a record low 1.75%. There's ongoing concern over Greece as talks drag on and German data was as expected. In the U.S., data on February retail sales and trade prices will highlight today, while business inventories, jobless claims and the Treasury budget will also be reported. Also, there is a $13 B 30-year bond reopening which winds up the supply this week.



Stock Stories:

Wells Fargo (WFC) –Housing looms – The banking giant has the most exposure to house financing and the sector continues to struggle. While higher rates typically help banks, it may also put a damper on home sales and refinancing. The company passed the Government Stress Test yesterday and the company raised its Dividend.  The shares are relatively flat today ahead of the opening bell as they did not announce a stock buyback program.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – Weekly Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT – Retail Sales

7:30 am CT – Import Prices

9:00 am CT – Business Inventories

9:30 am CT – Natural gas Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 30 Year Bond Auction

1:00 pm CT – Treasury Budget                     



Notable Earnings:   

Thursday – 3/12:

Before Market:  DG, HOV, JASO, MTN, REV

After Market:  ARO, LOCO, ULTA, ZUMZ



Friday – 3/13:

Before Market:  ANN, BKE

After Market: N/A

沁颍

3/13/2015

The U.S. Dollar (/DX) finally fell yesterday which in turn caused a massive rally in stocks. The inverse correlation between equities and the Greenback has been consistent recently and the reaction was intact again on Thursday. The rally was in spite of a lower than expected Retail Sales number, which economist are already blaming on the weather.  In the pre-market today, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are slightly higher to flat as markets look for direction. Option volatility took a nose-dive yesterday as stocks rose throughout the session.  As we expected the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) dumped significantly as it had only rallied modestly during weakness earlier in the week. The mixed economic data is only giving the Fed doves the thought that a June rate hike is off the table.



Treasuries are lower this morning and continue to gyrate ahead of the Fed’s policy meeting next week.  Today, Russia cut their main interest rate again. It is furthering its effort to stimulate the country’s economy as low oil prices (/CL) and economic sanctions take their toll. European markets were little changed as lower energy prices offset industrial gains.  In the U.S., investors will focus on inflation data and the consumer.  Although rhetoric about lower gas prices paying off in the retail sector, the consumer has only modestly ramped up spending. We could also see some more chop in the market in front of next week’s FOMC meeting.



Stock Stories:

Herbalife  (HLF) –Ponzied! – We could see trading pick up in the shares of the supplement maker/Pyramid product seller today. Activists have been pounding the table on whether the company is a legitimate business. Reports show that the Fed’s have extensively interviewed the main ‘Bear’ activist about their activity.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – Producer Price Index (PPI)

9:00 am CT–Consumer Sentiment



Notable Earnings:   

Friday – 3/13:

Before Market:  ANN, BKE

After Market:  N/A



Monday – 3/16:

Before Market:  ANN, BKE

After Market: N/A

沁颍

3/16/2015

Stocks bounced off of lows on Friday afternoon but were still in the red to end the day. Interest rate concerns and economic data continue to pressure equities. Today, the U.S. equity futures (/ES) are showing a slight bounce higher. Stocks seem to be reacting positively to reports that China will expand its efforts to boost economic growth. More gains in Europe are also putting a bid in equities. Option volatility remains in a tight range despite the choppy nature of equity markets. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is hovering between its 50 and 200-day moving averages and may remain stable into the Fed meeting this week.



Despite the rise in stocks this morning, Treasuries are also moving higher. The 10-year yield is at 2.09% within its recent tight range. Trading volume should remain muted early in the week as the markets look to Wednesday's FOMC decision where the Fed is expected to ditch the "patient" approach. The dollar (/DX) was slightly lower with crude oil (/CL) in the red again. On today's U.S. slate are the March Empire State index and industrial production, along with the March NHAB homebuilder survey figures, and January TIC data.



Stock Stories:

DuPont (DD) –Activism or Harassment?! – The company CEO responded to an activist proposal from Trian Partners over the weekend. The response stated it was the unanimous conclusion of the board that the proposal does not represent a meaningful step toward a constructive resolution. The company also received an analyst downgrade this morning. The shares are down over 2% ahead of the opening bell and volatility should pick up in trading today.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – Empire State Manufacturing

8:15 am CT – Industrial Production

9:00 am CT –Housing Market Index

3:00 pm CT – Treasury International Capital



Notable Earnings:   

Monday – 3/16:

Before Market:  N/A

After Market:  MCP



Tuesday – 3/17:

Before Market:  DSW, PLUG

After Market: ADBE, ORCL, PSUN