沁颍

3/17/2015

Stocks had a massive rally to start the week on Monday as global markets pushed higher. It looks as if it may be a tough act to follow today ahead of the start of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. This morning, the U.S. equity futures (/ES) are showing a slight pull back as the luck of the Irish is nowhere to be seen for stocks on this St. Patrick’s Day. Oil (/CL) is continuing to slide this morning and is below $43 a barrel for the first time since early 2009.  Option volatility was relatively strong yesterday despite the pop in equities. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell 2.5% but should be higher today if we continue to trade in the red. Volumes may be light today as the FOMC meeting announcement comes tomorrow afternoon and economic data is light.



Bonds are significantly stronger today and rose yesterday also despite the ‘Risk-On’ trade in play. The 10-year yield is falling towards the 2% level again as investors have continued to pour into the safety of U.S. Treasuries. The Dollar (/DX) is down slightly but remains elevated. Overseas, Europe is lower on weaker than expected German data. Asia on the other hand continues to rally as Japan’s Nikkei Index hit another 15-year closing high and China’s Shanghai Index closed at seven-year highs. On today's U.S. slate are Housing starts and earnings after the close from tech bellwether Oracle (ORCL).



Stock Stories:

Apple (AAPL) –Why not?! – Rumors are swirling that the tech product maker is in talks to launch an online television service. The offerings are said to be slim to start but the sector has had a nice run as of late. With the resources and money, AAPL could easily become a major disruptor in the space. The shares are relatively flat ahead of the bell.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT –Housing Starts

FOMC Meeting begins



Notable Earnings:   

Tuesday – 3/17:

Before Market:  DSW, PLUG

After Market:  ADBE, ORCL, PSUN



Wednesday – 3/18:

Before Market:  FDX, GIS

After Market: CTAS, GES, JBL, NQ, SCVL, WSM

沁颍

3/18/2015

Stocks were mixed yesterday ahead of the FOMC meeting as the Benchmark S&P 500 Index (SPY) was off slightly while the Nasdaq (QQQ) finished up modestly. It looks as if it may be a rough start today ahead of the results of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcement. Ahead of the opening bell, the U.S. equity futures (/ES) are showing a pull back and have been sliding consistently overnight. Oil (/CL) is continuing to fall again today and many are calling for lows under $40 a barrel. Option volatility was stable as equities bounced around the unchanged level on Tuesday. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) remains above the $15 level but direction will get clarity after 1:30 pm today. Volumes will be light today as the FOMC meeting announcement comes in the afternoon and economic data is light.



Treasuries are modestly higher, in sync with gains in sovereigns overseas. The 10-year note yield has slipped to test 2.02%, the lowest since late February as the market sees little prospect of an overly hawkish Fed. Concurrently, Germany saw a strong 10-year Bund auction. European stock markets are mostly lower as Greek-exit fears flare up again, and are weighing on U.S. equity futures. In the U.S. today, it's all about the FOMC. The policy statement, the economic projections and Yellen's press conference are all awaited for insights on the timing of rate lift-off. The MBA reported mortgage applications fell 3.9% in the week of March 13 and besides the FOMC announcement, the only other item today are oil inventories.



Stock Stories:

Federal Express (FDX) –Delivering? – The delivery giant posted better than expected EPS this morning and revenue was in-line with estimates. The company stated that moderate economic growth should support expectations. The shares were initially up 1.5% after the report this morning but are now down over 1% ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

6:00 am CT – MBA Mortgage Applications – Down 3.9%

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

1:00 pm CT – FOMC Statement

1:30 pm CT – FOMC Chair Yellen Press Conference



Notable Earnings:   

Wednesday – 3/18:

Before Market:  FDX, GIS

After Market:  CTAS, GES, JBL, NQ, SCVL, WSM



Thursday – 3/19:

Before Market:  LEN

After Market: NKE

沁颍

3/19/2015

The FOMC meeting produced a massive rally in stocks yesterday. The Fed dropped ‘Patience’ from its statement but remains Dovish despite the labor market at multi-year lows for unemployment. Yesterday’s move put the Dow ($DJI) back above 18,000, and for a short time the Nasdaq rose above 5,000 and the S&P (SPX) traded above 2100. Ahead of the opening bell, the U.S. equity futures (/ES) are showing a slight pull-back, albeit small. Oil (/CL) is reversing lower after a massive mid-day rally yesterday. Option volatility dropped like a stone on the bullish equity market. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) settled below $14 for the first time in two weeks and volumes were big on the rally.



Treasuries are slightly higher following yesterday's big gains on a more dovish than expected FOMC outcome. The 10-year yield has edged up to 1.94% from an overnight low of 1.89%. Trading volume remained strong as demand for Bonds continues. Bonds and stocks overseas largely tracked yesterday's rally, with some sovereign yields reaching more record lows. The Dollar (/DX) is recovering from yesterday's losses and has moved slightly higher. There are ongoing concerns over Greece's situation, where the ECB boosted emergency funding by an additional 400 M Euros. Today's data calendar won't have much impact as the markets continue to digest and focus on the FOMC. The reports includes the Philly Fed, initial jobless claims and leading indicators.



Stock Stories:

Ebay.com (EBAY) –0 Bids! – The online auction site and PayPal owner received an analyst downgrade this morning. The company will see more competition from Google Wallet and Apple-Pay in the near-term, which may offset the bid put in by the upcoming PayPal spin-off. The shares are down over 2% ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – Weekly Jobless Claims

9:00 am CT – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

9:00 am CT – Fed’s Tarullo Speaks

9:00 am CT – Leading Economic Indicators

9:30 am CT – Natural gas Inventories



Notable Earnings:   

Thursday – 3/19:

Before Market:  LEN

After Market:   NKE



Friday – 3/20:

Before Market:  DRI, KBH, TIF

After Market:  N/A

沁颍

3/20/2015

Stocks gave back some of the Fed-induced rally on Thursday as level heads prevailed. Reversals in the U.S. Dollar and less than stellar economic data were the causes for the downturn.  In the pre-market today, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are attempting to end the week on a positive note as they are up slightly. Option volatility firmed up but is still hovering at low levels. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is near the $14 level and has remained in a tight range. We don’t expect this low level of volatility to expand as monetary policy has kept a lid on any risk to the downside for equities.  The ‘Buy the Dip’ action is still in full effect and most likely it would take a one-off event to sway the sentiment..



Treasuries are higher again this morning and continue to shoot higher after the Fed’s policy meeting this week. The 10-year yield broke through the 2% mark for the first time in a couple of weeks as demand for Bonds has been strong. Overseas markets are higher as global stocks rally on Central Bank policies. The U.K. and Japanese markets are at multi-year highs and seem to have no concerns at this point. Greece sent a list of accommodations to German and Euro-Zone officials for review over the weekend. This “Grexit’ situation could be the one negative catalyst to spur markets in the near-term.  Today is quadruple-witching expiration so that may cause a little volatility in the option markets. Economic data is light but there is Fed-Speak from Lockhart and the Uber-dove Evans today.



Stock Stories:

Nike  (NKE) –Did It! – The athletic apparel-maker posted better than expected earnings results after the close yesterday. Expanding margins and strong global sales led the way. The stock is responding positively and is up over 4% ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

9:00 am CT – Atlanta Fed business expectations

9:20 am CT – Fed’s Lockhart Speaks

10:30 am CT–Fed’s Evans Speaks



Notable Earnings:   

Friday – 3/20:

Before Market:  DRI, KBH, TIF

After Market:  N/A



Monday – 3/23:

Before Market:  CCL

After Market: N/A

沁颍

Weekend Update

March 22, 2015



Stocks rallied this past week as the Market-Friendly Fed spurred more gains for equities. The Dovish rhetoric resonated through the markets despite removing the word ‘patient’ from its statement. Early-week strength in the U.S. Dollar (/DX) was weighing on stocks to start the week, but they reversed quickly after the Fed statement on Wednesday afternoon.  Thursday was mixed with some indexes coming off Fed related euphoria but Friday, sentiment changed, focusing on both Fed policy and central bank policy overseas. Equities gained on belief that the Fed will not change its near zero policy until at least mid-year and likely later.  Traders also noted that monetary policy in Europe will be easing. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) jumped 2.7% and the Blue Chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average’s ($DJI) rose 2.1% for the week. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (QQQ) led gains up over 3% and the small caps (RUT, IWM) were up by 2.8%. The gains pushed the Dow and the S&P 500 Index into positive territory for the year.  



In this past week's FOMC statement, the Fed eliminated the word "patient" regarding when rates begin to rise but there was no change in policy rates. They changed their characterization of the economy as growth is no longer solid but only moderate.  The statement is somewhat dovish, which has the Bulls jumping for joy again. The Fed was a little positive about the labor market. The Fed lowered its forecasts for the unemployment rate but also for GDP growth and inflation. They appear to either be willing to accept lower unemployment or acknowledge that labor force participation is declining. The lower GDP and inflation number supported the Fed's dovish statement to end the week.



With equities trending up sharply for the week, Option volatility took a big dump. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell almost 19% and is again approaching the multi-year support level near $12.  The ‘Fear Gauge’ should see some additional movement this week as there is plenty of economic data and Fed-speak due. Bond yields sank like a stone on the equity rally this week. The 10-year yield fell back below 2% and sits at 1.93%. Dovish Fed comments put a solid bid into Treasuries as many investors believe the risk of a rate rise has been pushed off. Oil futures (/CL) finished the week relatively unchanged but the daily sessions were volatile. Inventories continue to grow but Rig counts are falling. We should see continued volatility in the energy markets with Oil and gas prices near 6-year lows.



There will be plenty of potential catalysts for markets in the upcoming week. While economic data remains mixed the Fed is still in an accommodative stance. The wavering sectors of the economy recently have been housing and manufacturing, which we will get a better look at this week.  Market-Watchers have once again been blaming weather for the most recent weak numbers, but they are not where the Fed wants them.  For housing, sales have been soft over the winter.  With a stronger dollar and weaker growth in Europe and Asia, manufacturing has slowed, relying on domestic demand.  Durables orders will point to whether the manufacturing sector returns positive after three monthly declines in manufacturing output ending in February.


Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:

Monday:

A.M. – FMSA

P.M. –N/A



Tuesday:

A.M. – MKC

P.M.– SONC, SCS



Wednesday:

A.M. –  APOL

P.M. – FIVE, LE, PSUN, PAYX, PVH, RHT



Thursday:

A.M. – CAN, CAG, CCL, FRED, LULU, WGO

P.M. – GME, OCN, RH



Friday:

A.M. –BBRY, FINL



Economic Releases (3/23 – 3/27):

Monday:

7:30 am CT – Chicago Fed Activity Index

9:00 am CT– Existing Home Sales

9:00 pm CT –Fed’s Williams Speaks

                                                                                                                                                                              

Tuesday:

5:05 am CT –Fed’s Bullard Speaks

7:30 am CT – Consumer Price Index (CPI)

8:00 am CT – House Price Index

8:45 am CT – PMI Mfg. Index – Flash

9:00 am CT – New Home Sales

9:00 am CT – Richmond Fed Mfg. Index

12:00 pm CT – 2-Year Note Auction Results

                                                                                                                                                                                                        

Wednesday:

5:30 am CT –Fed’s Evans Speaks

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

7:30 am CT – Durable Goods Orders

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 5-Year Note Auction Results



Thursday:

3:35 am CT –Fed’s Bullard Speaks

7:30 am CT – Weekly Jobless Claims

8:00 am CT –Fed’s Lockhart Speaks

9:00 am CT – PMI Services - Flash

9:30 am CT – Natural gas Inventories

10:00 am CT – Kansas City Fed Mfg. Index

                                                                                                                                                                                                   

Friday:

7:30 am CT – GDP

9:00 am CT– Consumer Sentiment

沁颍

3/23/2015

Friday’s rally saw stocks finish with their second best week of 2015. The Nasdaq Composite (COMP) finished above 5K again and the Dow Industrials settled above 18K. Ahead of the opening bell, the U.S. equity futures (/ES) are showing a slight pull-back, albeit a small one. The Dovish Fed stance has investors pouring into risk assets such as stocks and we could see more gains as complacency reigns. The U.S. Dollar is down again today which is adding to last week’s slide. We saw an inverse correlation take place last week but today’s move is showing a little bit of divergence. Option volatility may get a bounce higher today if stocks remain in the red but premarket indicators are already off of overnight lows. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell almost 20% last week and is approaching support near the $12 level.



This week will be a good indicator for the Treasury market. We saw fresh demand for Bonds last week as the dovish Fed had investors scrambling to buy. The 10-year yield broke through the 2% level and is approaching 1.9% for the first time in a month. Overseas, the Bundesbank sees a "vibrant expansion" in Germany. U.S. equity futures are weaker, following the lead from Euro-zone bourses after Asian markets rallied. It's a quiet start to the week in the U.S. but Fed-speak will highlight. Cleveland Fed's Mester, spoke earlier and noted the Fed is cognizant of bubble risks, and added the Committee has plenty of room to ease if the economy slows sharply. Fischer and Williams will also speak today. Data is light with just February existing home sales and the Chicago Fed's national activity index on tap.



Stock Stories:

Lululemon (LULU) –No Pants – The yoga apparel maker reports earnings this week and the stock has made significant strides after mid-2014 lows.  Sales momentum had positively picked up but may be topping out according to analysts. The shares are down over slighly ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – Chicago Fed Activity Index

9:00 am CT– Existing Home Sales

9:00 pm CT –Fed’s Williams Speaks



Notable Earnings:   

Monday – 3/23:

Before Market:  FMSA

After Market:  N/A



Tuesday – 3/24:

Before Market:  MKC

After Market:SONC, SCS

沁颍

3/24/2015

A late-day sell off did not take the luster off of upward momentum for stocks to start the week. Volume and movement yesterday was muted as traders were in a bit of a weekend hangover. Ahead of the opening bell today, the U.S. equity futures (/ES) are gaining back all of yesterday’s minor losses. Upbeat economic data out of the Euro-Zone and particularly Germany helped reverse global equities despite bearish news out of China. Chinese Factory activity showed a drop to an 11-month low and was far below expectations. Option volatility saw a small bounce higher yesterday as stocks were weak at the close. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) should reverse lower today if we remain in positive territory but there is plenty of economic news that could change that sentiment.



Yields continue to come under pressure as the demand for Treasuries remains strong. Bonds were choppy yesterday and are relatively strong this morning. The U.S. Dollar is easing more today and has given back much of the previous week’s gains. If the Greenback catches another bid, we could see downward pressure on stocks again especially global multinationals. Stocks are mixed with China's Shanghai index having rebounded from losses after its disappointing PMI that fell to 49.2, which is contraction. And Grexit fears remain intact after PM Tsipras failed to unlock emergency aid. In the U.S. today, there's key data on February CPI and February new home sales. There's also the PMI, the FHFA home price index, the Richmond Fed index  and the Treasury auctions $26 B in 2-year notes.



Stock Stories:

Metlife (MET) –Rate reality – A letter to shareholders from the CEO stated that there may be concerns for earnings if rates remain low for longer than expected. The financial sector may under pressure on margins if rates do not begin to normalize into 2016 and 2017 as estimates are based on higher levels.



Major Economic Reports:

5:05 am CT –Fed’s Bullard Speaks

7:30 am CT – Consumer Price Index (CPI)

8:00 am CT – House Price Index

8:45 am CT – PMI Mfg. Index – Flash

9:00 am CT – New Home Sales

9:00 am CT – Richmond Fed Mfg. Index

12:00 pm CT – 2-Year Note Auction Results



Notable Earnings:   

Tuesday – 3/24:

Before Market:  MKC

After Market:  SONC, SCS



Wednesday – 3/25:

Before Market:  APOL

After Market:FIVE, LE, PSUN, PAYX, PVH, RHT

沁颍

3/25/2015

Tuesday saw another session that failed at the end of the day. Stocks were weak after a 2-year Note auction mid-day and weakened into the close. Volatility rose only modestly despite the downturn as risk protection in the option markets remains cheap on a historical basis. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is still relatively low and is just above the $13 level. Ahead of the opening bell today, the U.S. equity futures (/ES) are showing minor losses again but the Nasdaq futures (/NQ) are in positive territory. Oil futures (/CL) are relatively flat but may become volatile today as inventory results are due this morning. The Dollar (/DX) is falling and has trended lower after hitting 12 year highs about a week ago.



Treasuries are higher, extending gains for a 4th straight session. Core European sovereigns and most Asian bonds outside of Japan are also in rally mode. As Bonds rise, the inverse yields fall and the 10-year yield has dipped to 1.86% in light volume. U.S. equity futures have headed south in tandem with European bourse as Grexit fears flare up again. There wasn't much data of note overnight in the overseas markets. Today's U.S. slate includes the $35 B 5-year sale while Durable Goods for March highlight the data calendar. The MBA reported mortgage applications surged 9.5% in the week ended March 20. Earlier the Fed's Evans said the U.S. economy is very strong, but reiterated concerns over raising rates too soon as he is the Uber-Dove member.



Stock Stories:

Kraft (KRFT) –Processed Food Merger – H.J. Heinz Company and Kraft Foods Group (KRFT) announced that they have entered into a definitive merger agreement to create The Kraft Heinz Company, forming the third largest food and beverage company in North America. Kraft shares are up 32% ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

5:30 am CT –Fed’s Evans Speaks

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications – Up 9.5%

7:30 am CT – Durable Goods Orders

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 5-Year Note Auction Results



Notable Earnings:   

Wednesday – 3/25:

Before Market:  APOL

After Market:  FIVE, LE, PSUN, PAYX, PVH, RHT



Thursday – 3/26:

Before Market:  CAN, CAG, CCL, FRED, LULU, WGO

After Market: GME, OCN, RH

沁颍

看病去了，贴晚了。。。

3/26/2015

The markets were bleeding red yesterday as stocks fell sharply throughout the day. The Benchmark S&P 500 gave up 1.5% while the tech-heavy Nasdaq (QQQ) was lower by over 2%. The sell-off was blamed on pre-earnings jitters and profit-taking on bloated momentum names. Volatility rose sharply on the downturn as risk protection in the option markets got scooped up by investors. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) spiked over 13% yesterday as the ‘Fear Gauge’ may get choppy if stocks remain volatile. Ahead of the opening bell today, the U.S. equity futures (/ES) are suggesting a sharply lower open as the market appears ready to continue yesterday's selloff. Stocks may be reacting to reports that Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies began bombing targets in Yemen as the country moves closer to a civil war. The news has caused a spike in crude oil prices (/CL) and nervousness in Europe and the Middle East.



Capital flows into Bonds took a break yesterday and Treasuries are flat this morning. The 10-year yield remains below 2% and may have trouble breaking through resistance at that key level anytime soon. St Louis Fed moderate Bullard said stated in a speech that now may be a good time to begin normalizing policy, which will remain exceptionally accommodative. He is a non-voter at FOMC meetings but is part of the deliberations. Overseas saw German consumer confidence is at 13-year highs but Euro-Zone markets were still sharply lower. Today's U.S. calendar includes the $29 B 7-year auction, the last of the week. On the data slate are initial jobless claims for the week ended March 21, the March flash services PMI and the KC Fed manufacturing survey for March. Fed governor Lockhart will speak again on monetary policy and the economy, and his thoughts will be closely followed. Tomorrow's calendar has just revised Q4 GDP and the final print on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan.



Stock Stories:

Sandisk (SNDK) –Chipped Off! – The Chip-maker lowered its Q1 guidance this morning from previous forecasts. The change in Q1 revenue estimate is primarily due to certain product qualification delays, lower than expected sales of enterprise products and lower pricing in some areas of the business. The shares are reacting negatively and are down over 10% ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

3:35 am CT –Fed’s Bullard Speaks

7:30 am CT – Weekly Jobless Claims

8:00 am CT –Fed’s Lockhart Speaks

9:00 am CT – PMI Services - Flash

9:30 am CT – Natural gas Inventories

10:00 am CT – Kansas City Fed Mfg. Index

12:00 pm CT – 7-Year Note Auction Results



Notable Earnings:   

Thursday – 3/26:

Before Market:  CAN, CAG, CCL, FRED, LULU, WGO

After Market:  GME, OCN, RH



Friday – 3/27:

Before Market:  BBRY, FINL

After Market: N/A

沁颍

3/27/2015

Thursday started off deep in the red for stocks as concerns in Yemen and Saudi Arabia negatively affected global markets. ‘Buy the Dip’ once again showed its head and stocks recovered most of its loses into the end of the session. The Benchmark S&P 500 index (SPX) ended the day down a modest quarter of a percent but at the open was off 1%. Volatility initially rose sharply on the downturn but quickly reversed on the rally. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose a modest 2% but found resistance once again near the $17 level. This morning in pre-market, the U.S. equity futures (/ES) are suggesting a slightly lower open as the market is on shaky ground.



Treasuries are sharply higher and are attempting to end their recent slide. But the 10-year yield is still under 2.0%. The UK’s gilt is underperforming after BoE's Carney reiterated that the next interest rate move is probably higher. Stocks are mixed overseas while U.S. equity futures are in the red with Greece still a concern as the PM Tsipras prepares to present details reform plans over the weekend. In other news, German import prices jumped 1.4% in February thanks to the weaker EUR and the rise in oil prices. On the U.S. docket today, comments from Fed Chair Yellen on monetary policy and the new normal are anxiously awaited, though she will not be speaking until later in the afternoon. Before that there will be data on revised Q4 GDP and the final print on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan survey.



Stock Stories:

Gamestop (GME) –Game over?! – The video game retailer posted lower than expected quarterly results last night after the bell. The company also lowered FY15 guidance and is blaming currency issues for the pain. The shares are reacting negatively and are down over 4% ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – GDP

9:00 am CT– Consumer Sentiment

2:45 pm CT – Fed’s Yellen Speaks



Notable Earnings:   

Friday – 3/27:

Before Market:  BBRY, FINL

After Market:  N/A



Monday – 3/30:

Before Market:  CALM

After Market: CNET

total

沁颍

Weekend Update
Stocks took a bit of a hit this week as geopolitical concerns and poor economic data is finally having some negative impact on equities. Among the factors that concern investors globally is the current guessing game about when the Federal Reserve will begin to increase its fed funds rate. Despite comments out of the Fed, the markets are focused on either June or September, which is when FOMC meetings are followed by press conferences. Of late, a string of disappointing U.S. economic data has investors wondering if it will delay an increase in rates. Many economic indicators currently being released were affected by poor winter weather…although these should have been recognized by economists earlier. The question now is whether they will bounce back in the second quarter. It is a foregone conclusion that growth slowed in the first quarter of 2015. Other factors that influenced equity trading last week were the situation in Yemen especially given its geographic location regarding the flow of oil from the Middle East. The price swings in oil prices (/CL) have had a direct impact on energy company shares. Also dragging on financial markets are Greece's negotiations with its creditors. The markets continue to wait for some sort of an agreement to be reached. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) and the Blue Chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average’s ($DJI) both lost 2.2% for the week. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (QQQ) led losses off 2.7% and the small caps (RUT, IWM) were down just over 2%. The losses pushed the Dow and the S&P 500 Index into flat to negative territory for the year.  



With equities dumping this week, Option volatility jumped higher, albeit from extremely low levels. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose 15% and gained back the prior week’s slide.  The ‘Fear Gauge’ should see some additional movement this week as there is plenty of economic data, Fed-speak and increased geopolitical action. Treasuries had an extremely choppy week but ended flat on Friday. The 10-year yield sits below 2% and looks to have found a range under this level. Friday’s GDP data saw the U.S. economy grew at a 2.2% rate in the fourth quarter of 2014, which was in-line with estimates. Oil futures (/CL) rose about 4% on the heels of the escalating conflict in Yemen and this occurred despite a 5% slide on Friday. Energy prices and the oil market should continue to have a big impact on markets and the economy going forward.



The upcoming week is a short one as markets are closed on Friday for the Easter holiday. While economic data remains mixed, the Fed is still in an accommodative stance. The consumer is still underperforming spending expectations and the data is supporting the mixed numbers.  The upcoming week is full of potential market-moving news. Housing, manufacturing and jobs data are all due and could throw some volatility into equities. The March Jobs report is due on Friday when markets are closed. We have had 12 straight months of employment gains above 200K, which is the longest duration since 1994.


Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:

Monday:

A.M. – AIR, CALM

P.M. –N/A



Tuesday:

A.M. – CONN, GY, OCN, VTNR

P.M.– CNET, NG



Wednesday:

A.M. –  MON

P.M. – N/A



Thursday:

A.M. – KMX

P.M. – MU, SKY



Friday:

A.M. –Markets Closed



Economic Releases (3/23 – 3/27):

Monday:

7:30 am CT – Personal income and Outlays

9:00 am CT– Pending Home Sales

10:00 am CT – Dallas Fed Mfg. Index

6:15 pm CT –Fed’s Fischer Speaks

                                                                                                                                                                              

Tuesday:

Fed’s George Speaks

8:00 am CT –Fed’s Mester Speaks

8:00 am CT –Fed’s Lacker Speaks

8:00 am CT – S&P Case-Shiller HPI

8:45 am CT – Chicago PMI

9:00 am CT – Consumer Confidence

                                                                                                                                                                                                        

Wednesday:

Auto Sales – All Day

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

7:15 am CT – ADP Employment Report

8:45 am CT – PMI Mfg. Index

9:00 am CT – ISM Mfg. Index

9:00 am CT – Construction Spending

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories



Thursday:

7:30 am CT –International Trade

7:30 am CT – Weekly Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT –Fed’s Yellen Speaks

9:00 am CT – Factory Orders

9:30 am CT – Natural gas Inventories

                                                                                                                                                                                                   

Friday:

Holiday - Markets Closed

7:30 am CT – Jobs Report

7:30 am CT –Fed’s Kocherlakota Speaks

沁颍

3/30/2015

Stocks were in positive territory on Friday, but finished last week sharply lower. The Benchmark S&P 500 index (SPX) ended the week down over 2% as mixed economic data and geopolitical events were negatively affecting equities. This morning in pre-market, the U.S. equity futures (/ES) are sharply higher as the market is attempting to rebound.  Comments from Fed Chair Yellen on Friday afternoon and China’s Central Bank chief has investors feeling positive. The PBOC governor stated that they see ‘More Room’ for China to ease policy if the economic conditions remain soft. Volatility firmed up last week but will most likely see some weakness today on the rally. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose to the $15 level last week but is still in a tight range for the year.



Treasuries are slightly lower to start the week. The 10-year yield has dipped to 1.94% and remains firmly under 2%. The advent of month- and quarter-end is providing some support for Bonds over the last week. Stocks overseas are also posting solid gains too, underpinned by hopes for Chinese stimulus. In the U.S., today's data on personal income and consumption will be important for the GDP outlook. Other data today includes pending home sales and the Dallas Fed's manufacturing index. Comments from Fed VC Fischer will be closely monitored, though in comments to date, he hasn't provided any clear indications on the timing of a rate hike. He'll discuss monetary policy but well after the markets close.



Stock Stories:

Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA) –Scoop – The drug giant announced an agreement to buy Auspex Pharma (ASPX) for $3.2 B. This transaction is expected to enhance Teva’s revenue and earnings growth profile and strengthen its core central nervous system franchise with the addition of Auspex’s portfolio of innovative medicines for people who live with movement disorders. TEVA shares are down slightly ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – Personal income and Outlays

9:00 am CT– Pending Home Sales

10:00 am CT – Dallas Fed Mfg. Index

6:15 pm CT –Fed’s Fischer Speaks



Notable Earnings:   

Monday – 3/30:

Before Market:  AIR, CALM

After Market:  N/A



Tuesday – 3/31:

Before Market:  CONN, GY, OCN, VTNR

After Market:  CNET, NG

aimei

NO MARKET ON FRIDAY

沁颍

3/31/2015

Stocks were back in rally mode to start the week. The Benchmark S&P 500 index (SPX) jumped 1.2% and the Dow Industrials (DIA) were up almost 1.5%. M&A activity, China easing hints and decent Housing data had the Bulls in buying mode. Despite the rise in equities, option volatility finished the session off of lows reached at mid-morning. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell 3.7% but at one point was off by almost 7%.  This morning in pre-market, the U.S. equity futures (/ES) are sharply lower as stocks can’t seem to hold any gains recently.  Profit-taking ahead of the end of the quarter is being cited for the early weakness, as there is little on the foreign economic front that would point to such a significantly lower start.



Treasuries are slightly higher this morning. The 10-year yield has hovered under 2% recently and the trend looks to continue as the demand for Bonds remains firm. Stocks in Europe are also posting losses as data showed unemployment was still above expectations in February. Asia was also lower by 1% but the quarter produced double digit gains for the Japanese Nikkei and Shanghai Composite.  On the domestic economic calendar, investors will focus on the Case/Shiller home price report, the Chicago purchasing manager’s report, and a consumer confidence reading. There is also Fed-Speak from George, Mester and Lacker that could potentially sway markets.



Stock Stories:

McDonald’s (MCD) – More garbage, longer – The fast food giant will start to test an all-day breakfast in San Diego next month. The company continues to reach for ways to reverse the recent slide in revenue and growth. MCD shares have traded flat over the last few years and are down slightly ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

Fed’s George Speaks

8:00 am CT –Fed’s Mester Speaks

8:00 am CT –Fed’s Lacker Speaks

8:00 am CT – S&P Case-Shiller HPI

8:45 am CT – Chicago PMI

9:00 am CT – Consumer Confidence



Notable Earnings:   

Tuesday – 3/31:

Before Market:  CONN, GY, OCN, VTNR

After Market:  CNET, NG



Wednesday – 4/1:

Before Market:  MON

After Market:  N/A