沁颍

9/16/2014

The benchmark S&P 500 Index (SPX) held the $1980 level yesterday as stocks fell to start the week. We will most likely test this support area again today as U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading slightly lower ahead of the opening bell. We had a big divergence in sectors yesterday as the tech-heavy Nasdaq (QQQ) and small caps (RUT, IWM) were down sharply while the Dow Jones Industrials (DIA) were positive. Many market-watchers were pointing to rotation ahead of the Alibaba (BABA) IPO this week. Are investors selling other high-flying tech and growth stocks to buy Alibaba shares? The uncertainty in stocks had option volatility moving higher yesterday. The CBOE volatility Index (VIX) was up 6% on Monday and is higher by 25% in the last few weeks.



A continued turnaround in U.S. Treasuries is occurring again today. Bonds are firming up ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting after falling sharply last week. The 10-year yield settled back under 2.6% yesterday and is near 2.55% this morning. Asian markets were mostly lower overnight as China Mobile fell sharply on lack of clarity on a release date for the new Apple (AAPL) iPhone. A disappointing German economic sentiment survey and worries on the Scottish referendum put downward pressure on European shares. The U.S. calendar is thin today with only the Producer Price Index (PPI) due to sway markets. Most focus will be on the Fed and their announcement tomorrow afternoon.



Stock Stories:

Tesla Motors (TSLA) – Out of Juice? – The electric car maker’s stock fell 9% yesterday after an analyst agreed with the founder that the shares are over-priced. This and a possible rotation out of recent high-flyers ahead of the Alibaba (BABA) IPO put downward pressure on multiple names. The stock isup slightly ahead of the opening bell as traders try to support the shares.



Major Economic Reports:

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales

7:30 am CT – Producer Price Index (PPI)

8:00 am CT – Treasury International Capital

FOMC Meeting Begins



Notable Earnings:   

Tuesday – 9/16

Before Market:  FDS

After Market:  ADBE, APOG



Wednesday – 9/17:

Before Market:  CBRL, FDX, GIS, LEN

After Market:  PIR, UNFI

沁颍

9/17/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading relatively flat to slightly lower following yesterday’s big advance. Stocks fell early in yesterday’s session and then snapped into positive territory mid-morning on no news. Yesterday’s move was attributed to rumors that the Fed would maintain its accommodative stance in its statement expected to be released later today. The two day FOMC meeting will conclude this afternoon, and the committee's statement will be released at 1:00 pm CT.  Option volatility was initially moving higher yesterday but dropped like a stone on the rally. The CBOE volatility Index (VIX) dropped 10% on Tuesday and is reflecting little concern on today’s announcement from the Fed.



Treasuries are a little higher, in tandem with gains in global bonds, as the markets benefit from talk yesterday the FOMC might retain its "considerable time" phrase. There are also rumors floating of a liquidity injection by the People’s Bank of China to the 5 major Chinese banks. The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen to 2.56% but still has support above 2.5%. European shares are higher following an upward revision to August HICP inflation and despite a cautious tone on growth from the BoE Minutes. It's all about the nuances in the FOMC statement today. Data will be of interest, especially as the calendar includes August CPI stats, which is an important indicator for the Fed. The September NAHB homebuilder survey is also due along with weekly oil inventories. The MBA reported mortgage implications rebounded 7.9% for the week ended September 12.



Stock Stories:

FedEx (FDX) – Delivered – The delivery company reported better than expected quarterly results this morning. The company is off to an outstanding start in fiscal 2015, thanks to very strong performance at FedEx Ground, solid volume and revenue increases at FedEx Freight. The stock isup 1.5% ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications – Up 7.9%

7:30 am CT – Consumer Price Index (CPI)

9:00 am CT – Housing Market Index

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

1:00 pm CT – FOMC Meeting Announcement & Forecast

1:30 pm CT – Fed Chair Yellen’s Press Conference



Notable Earnings:   

Wednesday – 9/17

Before Market:  CBRL, FDX, GIS, LEN

After Market:  PIR, UNFI



Thursday – 9/18:

Before Market:  CAG, IHS, RAD, SCHL

After Market:  ORCL, RHT, TIBX

沁颍

9/18/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading higher as investors digest the news from the FOMC. Stocks are also getting a boost from news on more easing out of China. China’s Central Bank announced an injection of cash into the Country’s five biggest banks and they cut short-term borrowing costs. The FOMC stuck to its mantra of low interest rates and propping up stocks.  Option volatility once again showed weakness but equities did bounce around quite a bit after the Fed announcement. The CBOE volatility Index (VIX) should continue to fall if stocks remain in positive territory. Tomorrow is September options expiration and we can’t remember the last monthly cycle where stocks declined.



Treasuries are a little lower, as the downward trend continues.The 10-year yield is hovering around 2.60% this morning. Core bonds overseas are weaker in spillover from decline in Treasuries yesterday. Stocks are trading well, however, underpinned by the FOMC's low rate for a "considerable time" promise. Now the focus is on the Scottish referendum, where the British Pound is holding firm amid expectations the "No's" will prevail, though it's a close vote. On the economic front, it's a busy calendar. Initial jobless claims for the week ended September 13 (coincides with the BLS survey week), August housing starts, and September Philly Fed data are due. Additionally, the BLS will release its preliminary benchmark employment revisions, which may prove important.



Stock Stories:

Apple (AAPL) – Reviewed – The company is piling up positive reviews for its long-awaited new iPhone. One review claimed it was sexy – which is ridiculous but sells magazines or papers. The shares of AAPL have stalled out on its recent rally but may pick up as sales numbers are reported. The stock is up 1% ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT – Housing Starts

9:00 am CT – Philly Fed Survey

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories



Notable Earnings:   

Thursday – 9/18

Before Market:  CAG, IHS, RAD, SCHL

After Market:  ORCL, RHT, TIBX



Friday – 9/19:

Before Market:  N/A

After Market:  N/A

沁颍

9/19/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading higher as investors are taking the Scottish vote to remain in the U.K as a sign of bullishness. The largest IPO in history (Alibaba-BABA) also has traders optimistic this morning. Yesterday saw equities rise yet again as improving Jobless Claims numbers put a bid in the market. The FOMC stuck to its plan of low interest rates and many analysts are raising their estimates for stocks this year.  Option volatility fell again yesterday as stocks were in positive territory all day. The CBOE volatility Index (VIX) is near recent support levels around $12 so we could see some stabilization here.



Treasuries are higher which is a reversal from recent weakness.The 10-year yield rose above  2.60% yesterday and is at multi-month highs. European and Asian stocks were both higher on the news out of Scotland and continued easing by Central Banks. On the economic front, it's a light calendar with just leading economic indicators due. Today is quadruple witching for stocks and options and may provide some additional volatility in the markets.



Stock Stories:

Alibaba (BABA) – IPOing – The online mass market site out of China makes its debut today.  The shares are supposedly opening near $68 a share but demand should be strong. Based on valuation to comparable growth companies, the stock will be undervalued below $100.



Major Economic Reports:

9:00 am CT – Leading Economic Indicators



Notable Earnings:   



Friday – 9/19

Before Market:  N/A

After Market:  N/A



Monday – 9/22:

Before Market:  AZO

After Market:  N/A

沁颍

Weekend Update

Equities were mixed this past week as specific sectors out-performed others. The Fed policy decision came in much as expected and gave the stock Bulls what they wanted. At mid-week, stocks advanced with investors reassured after the Federal Reserve maintained the words "considerable time" in its policy statement regarding keeping rates low after the end of taper. Also, equity traders saw as favorable the Fed's comments that the economy is expanding at a moderate pace and inflation is below its goal. Thursday, both the Dow Jones industrials and S&P closed at new record highs due to continued momentum from the Fed decision and a sharp decline in initial jobless claims. Friday, stocks ended mixed after initially showing notable gains after the "no" vote on Scottish independence. Helping support stocks was a very favorable IPO by Alibaba (BABA) while downdraft came from the energy sector. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) finished the week up 1.3% and the Blue Chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average’s ($DJI) led the gains jumping 1.7%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) lagged the safety of large caps as they finished the week up a modest 0.3%.  The small caps (RUT, IWM) fell a sharp 1.2% as the historical market-leading indicator may be forecasting a pause in the rally.



Option volatility fell this week as equities remained bid up for the most part. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell 9% and is once again at multiyear support at low levels. We have typically seen the ‘Fear Gauge’ bounce off the $12 level repeatedly and hopefully we will see this happen again. Oil futures (/CL) were relatively flat for the week after hitting multi-month lows last week. OPEC stated they may cut output if energy prices continue to slide.



Bonds prices were flat for the week until Friday’s spike higher. Conversely, Treasury rates fell from two month highs. The 10-year yield broke through the 2.6% level but settled Friday at 2.58%. The FOMC left policy rates are unchanged. Also, taper remains on schedule to end with the October FOMC meeting. From this meeting, bond purchases were reduced by another $10 billion, starting in October, leaving just $15 billion per month. Guidance retained "considerable time" language for when the first rate increase follows the end of taper.



This week's focus is on housing and manufacturing. Last week's housing starts report notably disappointed and existing and new home sales will garner attention. Also, home price appreciation has softened and the FHFA home price report will add detail on strength in housing demand. Recent manufacturing data have been mixed with August industrial production soft but Empire State and Philly Fed for September somewhat positive. This week's durables report may add clarity regarding momentum at the national level and the GDP is due also.


Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:

Monday:

A.M. – AZO

P.M. – ASNA



Tuesday:

A.M. – CCL, KMX, USAT

P.M.– BBBY, SCS



Wednesday:

A.M. – CAN, KBH, PAYX, MTN

P.M. – FUL, JBL



Thursday:

A.M. – OMN, SCHL

P.M. – DMND, MU, NKE



Friday:

A.M. – BBRY, FINL



Economic Releases (9/22 – 9/26):

Monday:

7:30 am CT– Chicago Fed National Activity Index

9:00 am CT –Existing Home Sales

9:05 am CT - Fed’s Dudley Speaks

6:30 pm CT – Fed’s Kocherlakota Speaks

                                                                                                                                                                                

Tuesday:

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales

7:20 am CT - Fed’s Powell Speaks

7:30 am CT - Fed’s George Speaks

8:00 am CT – FHFA House Price Index

9:00 am CT – Richmond Fed Mfg. Index

12:00 pm CT – 2-year Note Auction Results

8:15 pm CT - Fed’s George Speaks

                                                                                                                                                                                                              

Wednesday:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

9:00 am CT – New Home Sales

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

11:05 am CT - Fed’s Mester Speaks

12:00 pm CT - Fed’s Evans Speaks

12:00 pm CT – 5-year Note Auction Results



Thursday:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT – Durable Goods Orders

8:45 am CT – PMI Services Flash

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories

10:00 am CT – Kansas City Fed Mfg. Index

12:00 pm CT – 7-year Note Auction Results

12:20 pm CT - Fed’s Lockhart Speaks

                                                                                                                                                                                                      

Friday:

7:30 am CT - GDP

8:55 am CT – Consumer Sentiment

沁颍

9/22/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are pointing toward a lower open to start the new week after the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended last week at a record high. Although small caps and the tech sector hit a bump last week, Blue Chips and large caps were in demand from buyers. Growth concerns in China have surfaced again, which is negatively affecting global markets this morning. China’s Finance Minister stated they will not make policy changes based on a few indicators as downward pressures in the country remain. We should see a nice bounce in option volatility this morning if stocks remain in the red after the open today.


Risk off trades have boosted bonds, though yields have edged off of overnight lows. The 10-year rate tested 2.55% before moving up to 2.57% and the German Bund is at 1.04% after slipping earlier. Equities were under pressure as they opened Monday trading after China doused hopes for more stimulus, while the G20 warned of financial market risks. Also, profit taking on U.K. stocks after the largest 2-day rally in over a month added to the more bearish tone. The luster is also off the enthusiasm after the Alibaba (BABA) IPO on Friday. Before the open, the Chicago Fed national activity index for August is due at 7:30 and a report on existing home sales in August is due at 9 am. As the week progresses investors will also receive reports on new home sales in August, U.S. manufacturing and services activity in September, and another estimate of GDP growth in the second quarter. There is also plenty of Fed-Speak this week, which will hopefully put some clarity behind the FOMC statement from last week.



Stock Stories:

Alibaba (BABA) – IPO’ed – The e-commerce site out of China makes debuted as the largest IPO in U.S. history on Friday.  The shares rallied over 38% above its opening price as demand was strong. Options on BABA begin trading early next week.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT– Chicago Fed National Activity Index

9:00 am CT –Existing Home Sales

9:05 am CT - Fed’s Dudley Speaks

6:30 pm CT – Fed’s Kocherlakota Speaks



Notable Earnings:   

Monday – 9/22

Before Market:  AZO

After Market:  ASNA



Tuesday – 9/23:

Before Market:  CCL, KMX, USAT

After Market:  BBBY, SCS

沁颍

9/23/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) may continue yesterday’s slide as they are pointing toward a lower open. Monday’s sell-off was broad-based but once again was led by the small cap (IEM, RUT) and tech (QQQ) sectors. Global growth concerns, falling commodity prices and interest rate direction put the Bears in control in these sectors.  Overnight, U.S. stocks started off strong but reversed quickly after the negative data out of the Euro-Zone surfaced. Option volatility spiked higher off of support levels once again on the downturn yesterday. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose 13% and the ‘Fear Gauge’ should gain more momentum today if equities remain in the red.



Bonds extended gains modestly as stocks continued to erode. The 10-year Treasury yield tested 2.53% earlier on the back of the drop in the German Bund yield under 1.0%, though both have edged up from those levels. Interestingly, a better than expected flash PMI print from China at 50.5 was mostly shrugged off. European national PMIs were mixed. Meanwhile, U.K. mortgage approvals and government borrowing data worsened. In the U.S. the bond market must absorb $29 B in 2-year notes which kicks off $93 B in coupon offerings this week. As for data in the U.S., there is the PMI for September along with the July FHFA home price index, and the September Richmond Fed manufacturing index. Fed-speak from doves and hawks will be of interest, but may result in more confusion rather than clarity on the anticipated rate lift-off.



Stock Stories:

Herbalife (HLF) – Pyramid – The multi-level marketing company dumped 10% yesterday on rumors that investor Carl Icahn was selling his stake.  Although the company is widely considered a Pyramid scheme, Icahn reported did not sell any of his stake. The shares are up slightly ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales

7:20 am CT - Fed’s Powell Speaks

7:30 am CT - Fed’s George Speaks

8:00 am CT – FHFA House Price Index

9:00 am CT – Richmond Fed Mfg. Index

12:00 pm CT – 2-year Note Auction Results

8:15 pm CT - Fed’s George Speaks



Notable Earnings:   

Tuesday– 9/23

Before Market:  CCL, KMX, USAT

After Market:  BBBY, SCS



Wednesday – 9/24:

Before Market:  CAN, KBH, PAYX, MTN

After Market:  FUL, JBL

沁颍

9/24/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are up slightly ahead of the opening bell. We had a massive sell-off at the end of the session yesterday as stocks posted a third straight day of losses. Equities fell Tuesday as the threat of war escalated in the Middle East and investors took off risk. Option volatility spiked higher again as investors continue to buy protection. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose another 13% and settled at its highest level in over a month. The ‘Fear Gauge’ may fall today but sentiment in stocks has reversed and selling rallies may be in play here.



Treasuries are a little weaker, in contrast to gains in European and most Asian bond markets after some weaker than expected data overseas. The 10-year Treasury yield ticked up to 2.54% but has trended lower over the last few sessions. The second leg of Note auctions is today and the 5-year is a key one given its historical reactions to Fed policy. News overnight, including slump in the German confidence index, including a worrying drop in the expectations component, and a dip in Japan's PMI. There's not a lot on today's calendar. Along with the Note auction, there is data on August new home sales. The MBA just reported mortgage applications dropped 4.1% in the week ended September 20. There is also more Fed-speak today from Mester and Evans.



Stock Stories:

Amazon (AMZN) – Selling – The online retailer continues to ignore unions in Germany despite the recent outbreak of strikes. The company also just reported a global outage late Tuesday as customers had difficulty placing orders. The shares are relatively flat ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications – Down 4.1%

9:00 am CT – New Home Sales

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

11:05 am CT - Fed’s Mester Speaks

12:00 pm CT - Fed’s Evans Speaks

12:00 pm CT – 5-year Note Auction Results



Notable Earnings:   

Wednesday – 9/24

Before Market:  CAN, KBH, PAYX, MTN

After Market:  FUL, JBL



Thursday – 9/25:

Before Market:  OMN, SCHL

After Market:  DMND, MU, NKE

aimei

THANKS
I SAW FEIFEI IS SHORTING MU

沁颍

MU挺牛的啊。。。
回复 39# aimei

沁颍

9/25/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are down slightly this morning in the pre-market. Stocks rallied over 1% yesterday as markets reversed recent weakness. Dovish comments from the usual Fed suspects including Charles Evans had investors feeling optimistic and hungry for riskier assets. The U.S. Dollar (/DX, UUP) continues to rally and is at one year highs. The Euro has fallen to its lowest levels in almost two years against the greenback as the economies diverge in growth.  Option volatility fell sharply on Wednesday’s rally in equities. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell 11% but its recent rising trend above $12 has not been completely broken.



Bonds are mostly higher, albeit in relatively thin trading. Dovish comments from ECB's Draghi, who in an interview repeated that the use of additional non-standard measures is unanimously approved by the Council, helped lead sovereign debt markets higher. The action brought the German Bund yield back under 1.0% while the U.S. 10-year yield has fallen to 2.54% as the market recovers from yesterday's poorly subscribed 5-year auction. In the U.S. today the Treasury sells $29 B in 7-year notes to complete this week's auctions. The data calendar includes initial jobless claims, durable orders for August, and the flash services PMI for September. Durables remain volatile and skewed by massive aircraft orders. There is also more dovish Fed-speak from the Atlanta Fed's Lockhart this afternoon.



Stock Stories:

KB Homes (KBH) – Underwater – The home builder posted quarterly results that missed analyst expectations yesterday. Home deliveries in the quarter were tempered by delays in construction schedules and customer mortgage loan closings that resulted in some deliveries being deferred to the fourth quarter. The shares are down again this morning after a downgrade of the company..



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT – Durable Goods Orders

8:45 am CT – PMI Services Flash

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories

10:00 am CT – Kansas City Fed Mfg. Index

12:00 pm CT – 7-year Note Auction Results

12:20 pm CT - Fed’s Lockhart Speaks



Notable Earnings:   

Wednesday – 9/24

Before Market:  OMN, SCHL

After Market:  DMND, MU, NKE



Thursday – 9/25:

Before Market:  BBRY, FINL

After Market:  N/A

tianfangye

thanks.................................

沁颍

9/26/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) up slightly this morning ahead of the opening bell. Stocks fell sharply yesterday as interest rate concerns and geopolitical risks put the Bears in charge. Hawkish comments from the Fed’s Fisher also triggered some of the sell-off. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (QQQ) led stocks to the downside yesterday as the sector dropped 2% led by a 4% decline in Apple (AAPL) shares.  Option volatility rose sharply on the broad-based fall in equities. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose 18% as traders were solid buyers of options. Several support levels were broken in the benchmark S&P 500 Index (SPX) on Thursday. The next stop to the downside could be the $1950 and then the $1925 level, which is the 150-day moving average.



Treasuries have shed earlier gains but are still in positive territory. The 10-year yield sits near 2.50% after testing 2.48% overnight. European and Asian Bonds remain higher with the German Bund yield at 0.95% and now firmly under 1%.   Stocks in Asia ended in the red following Wall Street's plunge Thursday, as U.S. equity futures and European bourses rebound. The U.S. Dollar is higher and continues to trend higher against other currencies. Weaker than expected German confidence data helped propel bonds higher, while Japanese CPI came in below expectations. Data today includes the third revision to Q2 GDP, with growth expected to be boosted to 4.4% from 4.2% previously. The final reading on consumer sentiment for September is also due and is expected to edge up to 85.0 from the anticipated 84.6.



Stock Stories:

Nike Inc. (NKE) – Swooshed! – The athletic apparel-maker posted better than expected quarterly results after the close yesterday. Improving margins and sales boosted revenue and FY15 guidance was lifted. The shares are up 7.5% this morning ahead of the opening bell, which is more than double what the option market was predicting into the report.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT - GDP

8:55 am CT – Consumer Sentiment



Notable Earnings:   

Friday – 9/26

Before Market:  BBRY, FINL

After Market:  N/A



Monday – 9/29:

Before Market:  CALM

After Market:  CTAS

沁颍

September 28, 2014

U.S. equities were lower this past week as numerous issues weighed on the markets. Geopolitical concerns in the Middle East and interest rate concerns took center stage for the pull-back.  The week started poorly as equities dropped on concerns about economic growth in China and an unexpected decline in existing home sales. Tuesday also dropped on the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East pressured shares. Wednesday saw a rebound on rising new home Sales. Thursday dumped hard as it showed the largest daily declines in indexes, led down by the tech sector after Apple announced problems in its operating system. Geopolitical concerns also weighed on stocks but Friday saw these losses cut in half. An upward revision to GDP and positive corporate news led stocks back and cut weekly losses somewhat. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) finished the week down 1.4% and the Blue Chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average’s ($DJI) were the strongest finishing only off by 1%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) lagged as they finished the week down a sharp 1.5%.  The small caps (RUT, IWM) dropped 2.4% and led the entire market in the loss column. We will be curious to see if the forecast by the small caps leads to bigger losses for the overall market.



Option volatility rose sharply this week on the stock worries. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) jumped 22% and looks even stronger compared to only modest overall losses for equities. We need the ‘Fear Gauge’ to get closer to the $20 level before many show any real concern for further downside for stocks. Some key technical levels were breached by the benchmark S&P 500 Index (SPX) this past week but it did settle above its 50-day moving average on Friday.



Treasury yields trended down all week with Wednesday being the daily exception in the other direction. Weak auction on Notes this week did not hamper Bond buyers as demand for the safety of Treasuries rebounded. Fed-Speak was mixed which also affected the Fixed income markets as the Doves and Hawks gave different views on the Fed’s interest rate decisions. There was also news on the largest Bond Fund as Pimco’s Bill Gross left the firm ahead of his firing. Many suspect that Bonds will go lower as Pimco would begin selling their substantial holding from his tenure at the firm.



The two big reports this upcoming week are the employment situation and the personal income report. Last month's payroll gain was deeply disappointing and the economy needs to see improvement for September. Personal income growth for July also was sluggish as stronger gains are needed for the consumer to keep spending at a decent pace. Housing has been a big question mark with the latest housing sales numbers mixed. The FHFA home price growth slowed and Case-Shiller actually dipped in the latest report. We will also be watching the developments on the Geopolitical front. There are also rumors that the ECB may act this upcoming week or at least come out with more information on kick-starting the Euro-Zone economy.


Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:

Monday:

A.M. – CALM

P.M. – CTAS



Tuesday:

A.M. – COCO, WAG

P.M.– N/A



Wednesday:

A.M. – AYI

P.M. – GAME



Thursday:

A.M. – ATU, MKC, STZ

P.M. – RECN



Friday:

A.M. – N/A



Economic Releases (9/29 – 10/3):

Monday:

7:30 am CT– Personal Income & Outlays

8:00 am CT - Fed’s Dudley Speaks

9:00 am CT –Pending Home Sales

9:30 am CT – Dallas Fed Mfg. Survey

                                                                                                                                                                                

Tuesday:

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales

8:00 am CT – S&P Case-Shiller HPI

8:30 am CT - Fed’s Powell Speaks

8:45 am CT – Chicago PMI

9:00 am CT – Consumer Confidence

                                                                                                                                                                                                              

Wednesday:

Auto Sales – All Day

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

7:15 am CT – ADP Employment Report

8:45 am CT – PMI Mfg. Index

9:00 am CT – ISM Mfg. Index

9:00 am CT – Construction Spending

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories



Thursday:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

9:00 am CT – Factory Orders

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories

                                                                                                                                                                                                      

Friday:

7:30 am CT – September Jobs Data

7:30 am CT – International Trade

8:45 am CT – PMI Services Index

9:00 am CT – ISM Non-Mfg. Index

沁颍

Weekend Update

October 4, 2014



Numerous issues weighed on markets this early in the week. Geopolitical concerns, mixed economic data, health fears and quantitative easing decisions in Europe all fed into the big swings in equities. Equities were down sharply through Thursday but good numbers from the employment report on Friday cut losses notably. At the start of the week, stocks fell, after the worst week in almost two months for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index (SPX), as protests in Hong Kong were added to geopolitical concerns. Also, a rebound in consumer spending raised speculation that the Fed may raise interest rates sooner than earlier anticipated. Ebola fears along with downbeat economic and housing data continued to pressure stocks. Thursday, stocks ended nearly unchanged, while small-cap shares rebounded after huge morning losses. There was a notable amount of bottom fishing and initial jobless claims declined more than expected. At the end of the week, better-than-expected payroll gains were seen as good news for the economy and stocks recouped part of the losses seen earlier in the week. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) finished the week down 0.8% and the Blue Chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average’s ($DJI) finished off by 0.6%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) finished the week down 0.8%.  The small caps (RUT, IWM) dropped 1.3% and led the entire market in the loss column once again.



Option volatility actually fell according to the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) as it showed a 2% slide. The ‘Fear Gauge’ typically rises on equity losses but Friday’s rally caused it to fall sharply.  We have seen a steady rise in Volatility until this week but the momentum is still to the upside as long as interest rate concerns and geopolitical risks remain. Put volume was about twice the Call volume but many investors may be taking a bullish stance by selling Puts after the big slide in equities.



Treasury yields were down moderately this past week. Monday, yields dipped on flight to safety on news of protests in Hong Kong. After little change Tuesday, rates declined notably Wednesday as traders shifted funds to the U.S. as most Group of Seven nations had less attractive rates along with concern that global growth is slowing. At week's close, rates edged up on the jobs report. The U.S. dollar (/DX) rallied strongly this week and is at levels not seen since June 2010.



It’s a relatively light week of news with the only highlights are on the jobs market and the Fed debate. Last week, payroll jobs topped expectations and this week's JOLTS report and jobless claims may confirm further improvement in the labor market. The most recent Fed policy statement indicated that there is considerable internal debate on the timing of the next rate increase. This week's release of Fed FOMC minutes could add insight into the Fed debate. Economic expansion appears to continue at a very moderate pace; however it has been quite volatile in some sectors. The consumer is very uncertain about the economy but jobs are up along with spending, but confidence is down. Earnings season kicks off this week and should bring some clarity to corporate health into the fourth quarter.


Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:

Monday:

A.M. – N/A

P.M. – TCS



Tuesday:

A.M. – WWW

P.M.– NG, YUM



Wednesday:

A.M. – COST, MON, RPM

P.M. – AA



Thursday:

A.M. – LNN, PEP

P.M. – CUDA, FDO, SWY



Friday:

A.M. – FAST, INFY, PGR



Economic Releases (10/6 – 10/10):

Monday:

11:30 am CT –TD Ameritrade IMX

2:00 pm CT - Fed’s Lew Speaks

7:30 pm CT - Fed’s George Speaks

                                                                                                                                                                                

Tuesday:

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales

9:00 am CT – JOLTS

12:00 pm CT – 3-year Note Auction Results

1:30 pm CT - Fed’s Kocherlakota Speaks

2:00 pm CT - Fed’s Dudley Speaks

2:00 pm CT – Consumer Credit

                                                                                                                                                                                                              

Wednesday:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

7:30 am CT - Fed’s Evans Speaks

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 10-year Note Auction Results

1:00 pm CT – FOMC Minutes



Thursday:

Chain Store Sales

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

8:45 am CT - Fed’s Bullard Speaks

9:00 am CT – Wholesale Trade

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories

10:00 am CT – Mario Drahgi Speaks

12:00 pm CT – 30-year Bond Auction Results

12:10 pm CT - Fed’s Tarullo Speaks

12:15 pm CT - Fed’s Lacker Speaks

2:40 pm CT - Fed’s Williams Speaks

                                                                                                                                                                                                      

Friday:

7:30 am CT – Import and Export Prices

8:00 am CT - Fed’s Plosser Speaks

12:00 pm CT - Fed’s George Speaks

12:30 pm CT - Fed’s Fisher Speaks

1:00 pm CT – Treasury Budget

2:00 pm CT - Fed’s Lacker Speaks