[转贴] SIX MONTH CYCLE TURNED BULLISH IN NOVEMBER

棋王

PRESIDENTIAL CYCLE AND FOURTH YEAR CYCLE ARE ALSO BULLISH.

Statistics from the Stock Trader’s Almanac indicate that the market performs better the second half of a presidential term than the first half. Furthermore, Ned Davis Research notes performance in the fourth year of the presidential term is even better. According to Davis, the average gain for the Dow Industrials was 7.5% for this fourth year.

Over the last 50 years, the average gain for the Dow was less than 1% from May to October. In contrast, the average gain was more than 7% from November to April. Clearly, there is a bullish bias from November to April.

All told, there are at least two bullish cycles coming together. The last two years of the presidential term are bullish, the fourth year of the presidential term is even more bullish and the six month cycle is bullish. Perhaps this is what sparked the rally in October and again last week.