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Weekend Update
November 16, 2014
Equities posted moderate gains except for the Nasdaq (QQQ) which rose notably for the week on the back of Apple shares (AAPL) rising sharply. The consumer is in focus and retailers have out-performed so far on the earnings front. Volumes were light to start the week due to Veteran’s Day and many market Bears are pointing to this weak conviction on the rise to all-time highs. Data was light last week and Fed-Speak gave no clue to further monetary decisions anytime soon. The consumer is feeling more confidence and is willing to spend with gasoline prices down and this is being reflected in equities. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) was up a modest 0.4% and the Blue Chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average’s ($DJI) rose only 0.3%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) led stocks and finished up 1.2% for the week. The small caps (RUT, IWM) finished the week basically flat and we saw some late week divergence as they were under pressure more than other sectors.
Option volatility traded relatively flat for the week as markets got choppy into Thursday and Friday. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose a slight 1.4% but is approaching solid support near the $12 level to the downside. With many analysts predicting a further rise in stocks into the holiday season, we could see less and less demand for option buying if markets rise.
In a quiet week, Treasury yields ended the week little changed. The Treasury market was closed Tuesday for Veterans Day even though stocks and futures were open. 10-year yields finished the week at 2.32% and look to have found a tight range recently between 2.2 and 2.4%. We have the Fed minutes released on Wednesday afternoon, which could induce some moves in Bonds if anything unexpected is released. Oil futures (/CL) fell another 3% despite the rally during Friday’s session. The stock Bulls have already begun chirping about the positive affect on the economy due to low fuel prices and this exercise should continue into the holidays.
This coming week has a variety of indicators to be released. The biggest market mover may be Fed minutes on Wednesday which might provide more detail on when the Fed starts to raise policy rates next year and its plans for lowering its balance sheet. Quantitative easing is over and rate change and unwinding are the next key Fed issues. Both housing and manufacturing have been oscillating in recent months. Important updates are posted for housing starts, existing home sales, and industrial production. The fourth quarter is starting to look moderately healthy based on the consumer sector. This is likely to spread to manufacturing sector and there is some key data to be released.
Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:
Monday:
A.M. – TSN
P.M. – A, JEC, URBN
Tuesday:
A.M. – DKS, HD, MANU, MDT, TJX, TSL
P.M.– JACK, LZB, PETM
Wednesday:
A.M. – LOW, SJM, SPLS, TGT
P.M. – CRM, GMCR, LB, WSM
Thursday:
A.M. – BBY, DLTR, GME, SHLD, SPB, BKE
P.M. – ADSK, TFM, GPS, INTU, MRVL, ROST, SPLK
Friday:
A.M. –ANN, FL
Economic Releases (11/17 – 11/21):
Monday:
7:30 am CT – Empire State Mfg. Survey
8:15 am CT – Industrial Production
Tuesday:
6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales
7:30 am CT – Producer Price Index (PPI)
9:00 am CT – Housing Market Index
12:30 pm CT – Fed’s Kocherlakota Speaks
3:00 pm CT – Treasury Intl. Capital
Wednesday:
6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications
7:30 am CT – Housing Starts
9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories
1:00 pm CT – FOMC Minutes
Thursday:
6:45 am CT – Fed’s Tarullo Speaks
7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims
7:30 am CT – Consumer Price Index (CPI)
8:45 am CT – PMI Mfg. Index
9:00 am CT – Philly Fed Survey
9:00 am CT – Existing Home Sales
9:00 am CT – Leading Economic Indicators
9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories
12:30 pm CT – Fed’s Mester Speaks
Friday:
10:00 am CT – Kansas City Fed Mfg. Index |
发表于 2014-11-16 13:31
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发表于 2014-11-17 10:05
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