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沁颍

赌ER的同学，请进一步确认ER时间。。。

8/20/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading relatively flat as investors go on Fed watch. The only significant economic report scheduled to be released today is the minutes from last month’s FOMC meeting which will be released at 1 pm CT. The market has risen during four out of the past five sessions but may be facing a bit of a headwind today as the ceasefire between Gaza and Israel appears to have broken down. The trading action may be lackluster despite the FOMC minutes as investors await this weekend’s meeting in Jackson Hole, which begins on Friday. Option volatility fell again yesterday as stocks bounced higher. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is now back to its support level near $12 and may consolidate here or bounce higher once again.



Treasuries are little changed, as are equities, as the traders await the FOMC Minutes this afternoon (2 pm CT). They are expected to be a mixed bag of dovish and hawkish commentary but nothing market-moving is expected. Overseas markets were mixed and provided no strong leads for the U.S. The USD (/DX) continues to rally against other major currencies. Today's data calendar is very light with just the MBA report where mortgage applications rebounded 1.4% in the week ended August 15.



Stock Stories:

Lowes (LOW) – digging lower – The home improvement retailer posted better than expected quarterly results this morning as EPS and top-line revenue were above estimates. The company unfortunately guiding slightly lower for the fiscal year. This has put pressure on the shares as they are down over 2.5% ahead of the opening bell.



Target (TGT) – missed bullseye – The retailer posted quarterly results this morning that slightly beat expectations. The Company lowered guidance significantly and cut its FY14 as sales remain under pressure. The shares are down over 1% ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

6:00 am CT – MBA Mortgage Applications

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

1:00 pm CT – FOMC Meeting Minutes



Notable Earnings:   

Wednesday – 8/20:

Before Market:  AEO, EV, HAIN, LOW, MSG, PETM, PLKI, SJM, SPLS, TGT

After Market:  CACI, HPQ, LB



Thursday – 8/21:

Before Market:  BKE, DLTR, HRL, PLCE

After Market:  ARO, BRCD, CRM, GME, GPS, INTU, MRVL, NWY, PERY, ROST, SMRT

沁颍

11/7/2014

The S&P 500 benchmark Index (SPX) settled at another all-time high yesterday and momentum continues to be up. This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading flat ahead of the October jobs data. Although the unemployment rate continues to drop, wage growth is lagging. If we see a surprise on wage growth, inflation could pick-up and possibly spook markets. Option volatility was relatively flat on Thursday but fear to the downside is waning just a couple of weeks after hitting yearly lows.  The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is below $14 level and should remain weak unless we see a negative catalyst.



Treasuries are lower again this morning after giving up more gain yesterday. The 10-year yield is slowly creeping higher as stocks rise and bond prices fall. Speculation from the ECB’s Drahgi yesterday pointed to an increase in stimulus soon. Aside from the jobs data today, the FOMC’s Yellen gives a speech on monetary policy in Paris at 9:15 am CT.  Earnings season is winding down but there remains a few big names into next week. So far, over 70% of S&P 500 companies have beaten expectations into their quarterly results.



Stock Stories:

Disney (DIS) –Frozen – The entertainment giant posted in-line quarterly results. The company said growth remains strong but its cable operations were weaker than expected. The stock is down about 2% ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

7:15 am CT – Fed’s Dudley Speaks

7:30 am CT – October Jobs Data

9:15 am CT – Fed’s Yellen Speaks

1:30 pm CT – Fed’s Taullo Speaks

2:00 pm CT – Consumer Credit



Notable Earnings:   

Friday – 11/7:

Before Market:  BAM, CTB, HUM, ICPT, STAY

After Market:  N/A



Monday – 11/10:

Before Market:  COCO, DDD, DF, DNDN, GOGO, BID

After Market:  AMBC, APP, RAX, RICK, ZN

沁颍

11/6/2014

The S&P 500 benchmark Index (SPX) settled at another all-time high yesterday but we are seeing some early pressure today. U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading slightly lower the day after mid-term elections sent stocks higher. Despite the overall gains in stocks, the tech sector (QQQ) hit some bumps yesterday as some big names sold off. As stocks hit new highs, we could see some profit-taking in names that have out-performed. Option volatility fell again Wednesday on the modest rise in stocks. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is near the $14 level but is trending lower towrds its multi-year support price of $12.



Treasuries were subdued into this morning’s Bank of England (BoE) and European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decisions. They both made no changes to their rate policy, but the upcoming press conference (7:30 am CT) may provide further clarity this morning. The market may be looking for future clues on easing down the road but communication has been light from the ECB. Despite higher equities, Bond prices are still elevated as appetite for some protection is still present. Japan fell slightly today after rising 10% over the last five trading sessions on the back of increased quantitative easing.  The action by Japan has put additional pressure on the ECB to expand their monetary stimulus for an ailing economic environment. In the U.S., tomorrow’s jobs data should show continued steady growth in hiring as the unemployment rate hovers below 6%.  



Stock Stories:

Tesla (TSLA) –motoring – The electric auto-maker reported earnings after the close yesterday and the company beat on EPS and Revenue. Will lower gas prices hurt future sales as oil prices continue to drop? The company lowered guidance on the number of future sales but the stock is still up 5% ahead of the opening bell.



Qualcomm (QCOM) – Chipped off – The chip-maker posted a miserable earnings report as sales and earnings were weak. The company also lowered guidance for FY15 as several items are hanging over the tech firm. The stock is reflecting the bad news and is down 5.5% in the pre-market.



Major Economic Reports:

BoE & ECB interest rate decisions - No change

Chain Store Sales

7:30 am CT–  Weekly Jobless Claims

8:30 am CT – Productivity and Costs

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Storage

11:45 am CT – Fed’s Powell Speaks

6:05 pm CT – Fed’s Mester Speaks



Notable Earnings:   

Thursday – 11/6:

Before Market:  APA, AOL, CECO, CDW, CNK, DIS, DTV, HAIN, KATE, LCUT, TAP, OWW, TDC, WEN

After Market:  ELON, ED, FSLR, JDSA, KOG, MNST, NVDA, ZNGA



Friday – 11/7:

Before Market: BAM, CTB, HUM, ICPT, STAY

After Market:  N/A

钢铁牛

谢谢！
很不错的一天中的关键总汇！

沁颍

11/5/2014

Republicans have retaken control of the Senate after yesterday’s midterm elections. U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading sharply higher as investors cheer the political swing. The win may not mean much as far as changes are concerned but the shift in power is being viewed as an end of President Obama's policies. We’ve seen many historical studies that point to higher equities after elections so optimism is high for U.S. markets. Investors will now be turning their attention to Friday’s jobs report. Today they will examine the ADP employment change report in an effort to estimate the number of jobs created in October. Analysts are predicting that 220K net new jobs were added last month. Volatility rose yesterday as stocks took a break from their rally. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is close to $15 but will fall today if stocks remain in positive territory.



Risk appetite is picking up on the back of a sweeping Republican victory in the mid-term elections. And the election outcome overshadowed weaker European data and sent their markets higher. Historic studies show that fourth quarters of midterm election years have produced an average Wall Street gain of 8% in the last 65 years. Although past performance has no bearing on future moves, the Bulls will point to this for gains into the end of the year. Traders will look to today's data on the October ADP private employment result, the PMI and the October ISM Non-Manufacturing index while awaiting the October employment report on Friday. Oil prices (/CL) are relatively flat and will also be monitored closely by markets.



Stock Stories:

Tesla (TSLA) –motoring – The electric auto-maker reports earnings after the close today. The option market is anticipating a move of 8% into the quarterly report and the stock float is small, which could potentially move the stock violently. The shares are up slightly ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

6:00 am CT – Mortgage Applications

7:15 am CT – ADP Employment Report

8:15 am CT – Fed’s Kocherlakota Speaks

8:30 am CT – Fed’s Lacker Speaks

8:45 am CT – PMI Services index

9:00 am CT – Non-Manufacturing PMI

9:00 am CT –Fed’s Rosengren Speaks

9:30 pm CT – Crude Oil Inventories



Notable Earnings:   

Wednesday – 11/5:

Before Market:  CTSH, EE, DAVE, LVLT, MDLZ, NUS

After Market:  CBS, CF, MDR, MCP, MUSA, NDLS, PRU, QCOM, SKUL, SUN, TSRO, TSLA, TXTR, WFR, Z



Thursday – 11/6:

Before Market: APA, AOL, CECO, CDW, CNK, DIS, DTV, HAIN, KATE, LCUT, TAP, OWW, TDC, WEN,

After Market:  ELON, ED, FSLR, JDSA, KOG, MNST, NVDA, ZNGA

沁颍

11/4/2014

The Massive rally showed some cracks yesterday as stocks finished the session mixed. U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading slightly lower this morning after the S&P 500 Index (SPX, SPY) and Dow Industrials (DIA, $DJI) hit new all-time highs yesterday morning. Focus will be on the mid-term elections today. Republicans hope to win back the Senate which has been controlled by the Democrats under President Obama, resulting in a stalemate on many issues in Washington. Volatility rose in stocks yesterday despite the recent move higher. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose 5% despite the bullish tone by many money managers, analysts and investment firms into the holiday season. Historically we see stocks rise in the all-important fourth quarter and this shopping season is supposed to out-perform the last five years.



Treasuries are sharply higher as risk appetite is waning this morning. The 10-year yield has dipped to 2.3% and downward pressure may be back as stocks failed at another all-time high. Japanese markets were sharply higher overnight but European markets are taking their cue from U.S. stocks and are modestly lower. Oil futures (/CL) are at multi-year lows as news hit that Saudi Arabia is cutting its prices to keep its market share. Although this is a built in tax break for consumers as energy prices fall, it could have negative effects for our economy as U.S. production is expansive. Today's U.S. numbers include September trade and factory orders. Other key data this week ahead of Friday's October employment report include the October ADP private employment survey (Wed), the October ISM Non-Manufacturing index and Q3 productivity.



Stock Stories:

Alibaba (BABA) –Massive Scale – The Chinese online retailer posted in-line EPS this morning and a slight beat on Revenue. The report showed that active buyers rose over 50% and mobile growth was above expectations. The option market was anticipating a move of 6% and the shares are up about 3% ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales

7:30 am CT – International Trade

9:00 am CT – Factory Orders

11:40 am CT – Fed’s Fisher Speaks



Notable Earnings:   

Tuesday – 11/4:

Before Market:  AKS, BABA, BKW, CVS, DISH, EL, IP, KORS, MWW, ODP, PCLN, RRGB, RGS, VLO, VSI, ZBRA

After Market:  CNQR, DVN, FANG, FEYE, AWAY, JMBA, MYGN, PZZA, PBPB, PRI, SCTY, TRP, ZU



Wednesday – 11/5:

Before Market: CTSH, EE, DAVE, LVLT, MDLZ, NUS

After Market:  CBS, CF, MDR, MCP, MUSA, NDLS, PRU, QCOM, SKUL, SUN, TSRO, TSLA, TXTR, WFR, Z

沁颍

11/3/2014

The benchmark S&P 500 Index (SPX) rose 2.7% last week and momentum has been strong over the last two weeks. Despite the optimism, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading slightly lower this morning after the market's huge rally last week. Corporate results during the current earnings season have been better than expected, albeit on another round of lowered expectations, and recently released economic data has helped solidify the market’s move. Mid-term elections could throw a potential wrench into the rally as outcomes may change the majority weight of Congress. Volatility fell only modestly on Friday but the trend is still lower as stocks rally back near all-time highs. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is at the $14 level and support continues to be near $12.



Treasuries are mostly higher as the ‘Risk-on’ trade may take a bit of a breather today. The 10-year yield has dipped to 2.31% but the trend is still higher. Asian bonds also rallied, while action in the Euro-zone has been less bullish. Global equities are lower after disappointing PMI data (excluding the U.K. and Switzerland) and some corporate earnings misses. The U.S. dollar has continued to rise and the Yen is taking another hit. U.S. markets should settle down a bit now as they face a big week of data, culminating with Friday's employment report. Today's slate includes the Markit PMI for October, the October ISM, September construction spending, and October vehicle sales. President Obama is also slated to meet with Fed Chair Yellen.



Stock Stories:

Hebalife (HLF) –Placebo? – The alleged Pyramid-Scheme Company is set to report earnings today after the close. The option market is pricing in a 14% one standard deviation move into the event as lawsuits and activist investor’s battle continues. The shares are up slightly ahead of the bell and last quarter the company stock was hit pretty hard on slowing growth.



Major Economic Reports:

October Vehicle Sales

8:30 am CT – Fed’s Evan’s Speaks

8:45 am CT – PMI Mfg. Index

9:00 am CT – ISM Manufacturing Report

9:00 am CT – Construction Spending

11:40 am CT – Fed’s Fisher Speaks



Notable Earnings:   

Monday – 11/3:

Before Market:  ARNA, CNA, HNT, L, SOHU, VMC

After Market:  CKP, HLF, MRO, NTRI, THC, VNO



Tuesday – 11/4:

Before Market: AKS, BABA, BKW, CVS, DISH, EL, IP, KORS, MWW, ODP, PCLN, RRGB, RGS, VLO, VSI, ZBRA

After Market:  CNQR, DVN, FANG, FEYE, AWAY, JMBA, MYGN, PZZA, PBPB, PRI, SCTY, TRP, ZU

沁颍

Weekend Update

November 2, 2014

Equities exceeded expectations this past week with both the S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJX) recording new highs to close out a volatile month. Stocks gained momentum all week long with many of the downside catalysts from earlier in October essentially becoming obsolete.  Stronger than expected earnings continue to drive confidence with over 75% of S&P 500 companies handily beating estimates of those already released.  Approximately 150/500 companies in the index remain as one of the strongest earning seasons in recent history begins to wind down.   Overly hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve Statement announcing the conclusion of QE did little to rattle investors after Thursday’s concrete 3.5% quarterly GDP figure corroborated the authenticity of the economic recovery.



Option volatility continued to implode to new October lows just above $14 after the spike earlier in the month was quickly reduced in half. The U.S. Dollar (/DX, UUP) also shot to a new yearly high Friday after the Bank of Japan’s surprise announcement to rapidly accelerate their current stimulus jolted equity markets  across the globe.  Crude Oil (/CL) may likely be the asset class most affected by the surging dollar after an astonishing 9% loss materialized over just the last four weeks.  Gold (/GC) has also largely been abandoned by investors with the renewed risk appetite prompting accelerated liquidation to close the precious metal at the lowest level since July of 2010.



10 Year Treasury Bond rates closed the week at 2.34% as traders focused on re-allocating assets into more risk. Yields may be poised to rise over the foreseeable future as the Federal Reserve hints at the desire to return to more normalized rates to curb against inflationary concerns with the renewed assurance of a strengthening economy taking shape.   



The upcoming week will offer valuable insight into the expanding labor markets with multiple employment figures slated for release.   Friday’s monthly unemployment component will be the most highly anticipated with a consensus forecast of 5.9%.  Earnings will also continue to grab headlines as several noteworthy companies have yet to report and will likely dictate sentiment over the near-term based on results.  The biggest question remaining is if investors will continue the euphoric buying frenzy into the final quarter of the year which over the last few weeks quickly erased losses approaching dreaded correction territory.


Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:



Monday:

A.M. – ARNA, CNA, CYOU, HNT, L, SOHU, VMC

P.M. – DRYS, CKP, HLF, KND, MRO, NTRI, S, THC, TXRH, VNO



Tuesday:

A.M. – AKS, BABA, BKW, CVS, DISH, EL, IP, KORS, MWW, ODP, PCLN, RRGB, RGS, VLO, VSI, ZBRA

P.M.–CNQR, DVN, FANG, FEYE, AWAY, JMBA, MYGN, PZZA, PBPB, PRI, SCTY, TRP, ZU



Wednesday:

A.M. – CTSH, EE, DAVE, LVLT, MDLZ, NUS

P.M. – CBS, CF, MDR, MCP, MUSA, NDLS, PRU, QCOM, SKUL, SUN, TSRO, TSLA, TXTR, WFR, Z



Thursday:

A.M. – APA, AOL, CECO, CDW, CNK, DIS, DTV, HAIN, KATE, LCUT, TAP, OWW, TDC, WEN,

P.M. – ELON, ED, FSLR, JDSA, KOG, MNST, NVDA, ZNGA



Friday:

A.M. – BAM, CTB, HUM, ICPT, STAY

P.M. –N/A



Economic Releases (11/3 – 11/7):



Monday:

October Vehicle Sales

9:00 am CT – ISM Manufacturing Report

9:00 am CT – Construction Spending



Tuesday:

7:30 am CT – Trade Balance

9:00 am CT – Factory Orders



Wednesday:

7:15 am CT – ADP Employment Report

8:15 am CT – FOMC Member Kocherlakota Speaks

9:00 am CT – Non-Manufacturing PMI

9:30 pm CT – Crude Oil Inventories



Thursday:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

8:30 am CT – Unit Labor Costs

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Storage

6:00 pm CT – FOMC Member Mester Speaks



Friday:

7:30 am CT – Unemployment Numbers

1:00 pm CT – Consumer Credit

沁颍

10/31/2014

I hope you slept well and didn’t worry about the global markets falling. U.S. equity futures (/ES) are soaring higher in the wake of stimulus measures implemented by the bank of Japan (BoJ). The move was highly unexpected and once again showed that Japan is taking a big move to pump up its dismal economy. I’m sure that the investing community will now turn its focus to the European Central Bank (ECB) for a potential similar plan as their economies weaken. The U.S. Dollar is rising again which has commodities such as Gold (/GC) and Oil (/CL) falling. Volatility fell modestly yesterday as stocks rose again on the heels of an improving GDP number. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is at $14.52 and the ‘Fear Gauge’ should fall sharply today as equities advance.  Although the action by the BoJ is deemed as a positive, it shows that all the Central Bank policies across the globe do not necessarily help the economies…only asset prices such as stocks.



Treasuries are down this morning as investors will most likely pour into riskier assets such as stocks. The 10-year Treasury yield finished over 2.30% yesterday and will rise today as Bonds fall. Japan finished up 5% on the stimulus announcement and Europe is up about 2%.  Most of Japan's heavy data slate revealed weaker growth and inflation, while German retail sales dove 3.2% lower. There's a lot on the U.S. calendar today, including September personal income and spending, Consumer Sentiment and the Chicago PMI. Energy stocks will report earnings today also as results are due from Exxon (XOM) and Chevron (CVX).



Stock Stories:

Starbucks (SBUX) –Needs Caffeine!– The coffee giant posted in line EPS after the close yesterday but Revenue and global sales were lighter than expected. The shares are down 3.5% ahead of the bell which is what option markets had priced in yesterday.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – Personal Income & Outlays

7:30 am CT –Employment Cost Index

8:45 am CT – Chicago PMI

8:55 am CT – Consumer Sentiment



Notable Earnings:   

Friday – 10/31:

Before Market:  AON, BUD, CBOE, CVX, CLX, D, SNE, WY, XOM

After Market:  N/A



Monday – 11/3:

Before Market: ARNA, CNA, HNT, L, SOHU, VMC

After Market:  CKP, HLF, MRO, NTRI, THC, VNO

沁颍

10/29/2014

It will be all about the Fed today as the FOMC releases its statement on interest rates and Quantitative Easing at 1 pm CT.  U.S. equity futures (/ES) are lower this morning as corporate earnings took a hit on the back of disappointing Facebook (FB) and Twitter (TWTR) guidance. Yesterday saw another massive rally led by optimism about dovish Fed policy and improving earnings. The market-leading small cap sector (IWM, RUT) out-performed and rose almost 3%, which pushed equities above a few important technical resistance levels. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) finished the session down another 10% and is moving as if stocks will continue to rise with little downside risk. Complacency is back and traders are potentially predicting more accommodation from the Fed and Central Banks across the globe.



Treasuries are little changed amid mixed markets overseas with Asian sovereigns mostly lower and European bonds mostly in the green. The 10-year Treasury yield is hovering just under 2.30% and ‘Risk-on’ trading was the theme yesterday. Overnight data showed a drop in German exports to Russia. U.K. lending data came in below forecast, though Japanese industrial production rebounded 2.7% last month. The markets now await the FOMC announcement this afternoon, though it might not be that much of a price mover. Data is light today but this morning’s MBA reported mortgage applications fell 6.6% in the week ended October 24. Earnings reports today come from Visa (V), Kraft Foods (KRFT), Sodastream (SODA), Metlife (MET), Ralph Lauren (RL), Hyatt Hotels (H) and Baidu (BIDU).



Stock Stories:

Sodastream (SODA) –Fad Is Fading – The at-home beverage maker posted an EPS beat this morning on earnings but missed badly on revenue expectations. The company’s best days may be behind it as growth has slowed and sales are slipping.  The shares are relatively flat ahead of the opening bell but are down 55% for the year.



Facebook (FB) – Short Term/Long Term – The social media company reported a beat on EPS and revenue on its quarterly call last night. Despite the growth, the company announced a ramp up in expenses and investment for monetization. The stock initially rose in after-hours trading but fell after the conference call. The shares are down 8% ahead of the bell which is more than the expected move.



Major Economic Reports:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications – Down 6.6%

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 5-year Note Auction Results

1:00 pm CT – FOMC Meeting Announcement



Notable Earnings:   

Wednesday – 10/29:

Before Market:  ETN, EXC, GRMN, HSY, HES, H, RL, SODA, SO, WM, WLP

After Market:  AKAM, ALL, ATML, BIDU, KRFT, MET, SPWR, TRLA, V, WMB



Thursday – 10/30:

Before Market: CAH, CI, CME, GG, K, MGM, MO, MOS, S, TWC, WWE

After Market:  EXPE, FSLR, FLR, GPRO, GRPN, LNKD, MYL, NEM, SBUX, TSO

沁颍

10/28/2014

Stocks historically are influenced by the massive Treasury market but now they are also influenced by Oil (/CL) prices.  U.S. equity futures (/ES) are higher this morning as the market looks ready to extend its most recent winning streak and crude prices have firmed up. The week started off choppy as stocks finished Monday down slightly. Investors are most likely optimistic ahead of the FOMC meeting and potentially more dovish statements. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) finished the session basically flat and should fall today if equities remain in positive territory. Corporate results continue to out-perform for the most part but many blame financial engineering, which will not last if growth does not begin to expand.



Treasuries are lower this morning and are trading inversely with equities. The 10-year Treasury yield picking up but should remain low based on recent Fed-Speak. European and Asian markets were sharply higher overnight on optimistic views on the global economy. The FOMC meeting begins today with the interest rate announcement tomorrow afternoon. Investors are expecting Quantitative Easing to end but expect a dovish-easy policy statement as inflation and growth are muted. There is plenty of economic data today led by Durable goods and Consumer confidence. Earnings season is also in full swing and traders will focus on Facebook (FB) results after the close.



Stock Stories:

Pfizer (PFE) –Medicinal – The pharmaceutical giant posted a beat on earnings this morning. The company is still dealing with negative impact from product losses of exclusivity but held firm on forward guidance.  The shares are slightly higher ahead of the opening bell.



Twitter (TWTR) – silenced – The social media company reported in-line EPS and beat slightly on revenue on its quarterly call last night. Guidance was modest and analysts apparently are souring on the shares with a few downgrades this morning. The anticipated move in the shares was about $6 and that’s how much the stock is down in the pre-market.



Major Economic Reports:

FOMC Meeting Begins

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales – up 0.3% for week

7:30 am CT – Durable Goods Orders

8:00 am CT – S&P Case Shiller HPI

9:00 am CT – Consumer Confidence

9:00 am CT – Richmond Fed Mfg. Index

12:00 pm CT – 2-year Note Auction Results



Notable Earnings:   

Tuesday – 10/28:

Before Market:  AMTD, AET, AGN, AN, BP, COH, CNX, DD, FCX, GLW, PFE, SHW, HOT, UBS, WHR, WYNN

After Market:  AFL, APC, CHRW, EA, ESRX, FB, GILD, MAR, PNRA, WDC, X



Wednesday – 10/29:

Before Market: ETN, EXC, GRMN, HSY, HES, H, RL, SODA, SO, WM, WLP

After Market:  AKAM, ALL, ATML, BIDU, KRFT, MET, SPWR, TRLA, V, WMB

沁颍

10/27/2014

October is typically the scariest month for stocks and this one is not disappointing.  U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading lowerand trading should remain nervous and volatile heading into month-end. Today, investors will mull the Euro-zone stress test results, FOMC uncertainties and growth concerns. We will also continue to watch the jittery climate due to Ebola and terror worries. This along with a FOMC meeting should provide the fuel for potentially choppy markets. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell over 25% last week as stocks finished strongly into the close on Friday.



‘Risk-On’ trading was in favor last week as equities reversed higher. Treasuries are modestly higher this morning and have reversed from overnight lows. The 10-year Treasury yield is fractionally lower at 2.25%. Markets took the European bank stress tests in stride, as much of the general information had been leaked late last week but disappointing German data helped boost Euro-zone bonds at the expense of stocks. Economic data is light today and the wait is on for Wednesday's FOMC announcement. As for today the data highlight is the flash services PMI report. September pending home sales and the October Dallas Fed manufacturing index are also due. The NY Fed conducts what is likely to be the last of the QE3 buybacks this week but clarity on that will come on Wednesday.



Stock Stories:

Merck (MRK) – Good Medicine – The pharmaceutical leader posted mixed earnings this morning as revenue came in a little light. Their sales were down from last year but guidance remains intact for FY14.  The shares are slightly higher ahead of the opening bell.



Twitter (TWTR) – Anticipation – The social media company reports earnings after the close today. The anticipated market-maker move is about 10% after the report and volatility is highly elevated into the event.



Major Economic Reports:

8:45 am CT – PMI Services Flash

9:00 am CT – Pending Home Sales

9:30 am CT – Dallas Fed Mfg. Survey



Notable Earnings:   

Monday – 10/27:

Before Market:  BKW, CAJ, MRK, STX, TEN

After Market:  AMGN, BWLD, CLF, CROX, GGP, HIG, MTW, TMUS, TWTR, VRTS



Tuesday – 10/28:

Before Market: AMTD, AET, AGN, AN, BP, COH, CNX, DD, FCX, GLW, PFE, SHW, HOT, UBS, WHR, WYNN

After Market:  AFL, APC, CHRW, EA, ESRX, FB, GILD, MAR, PNRA, WDC, X

沁颍

Weekend Update

October 26, 2014



Earnings were the story of the week as positive corporate results propelled equities higher. Economic data was mixed but remains on a slow upward grind as modest growth helps stocks. This was the first positive week for stocks in over a month and the momentum could carry into the end of the year. The week started off well despite lackluster earnings from the tech bellwether IBM. Strong gains on Tuesday were on the back of upbeat earnings from Apple and reports that the European Central Bank was considering buying corporate bonds. Equities fell sharply at mid-week after a shooting at the Canadian Parliament and falling oil prices. Markets shot higher into the end of the week as positive quarterly earnings from Blue Chip companies put more bids in stocks. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) was up 4.1% and the Blue Chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average’s ($DJI) finished the week up 2.6%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) led the benchmark indices finishing up 5.3%.  The small caps (RUT, IWM) rose 3.4% but started the reversal higher the prior week.  



Option volatility began to fall immediately last week as the stock rebound was strong. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell a whopping 26% last week as traders were in ‘Risk-On’ mode. The ‘Fear Gauge’ is back near $16 and momentum remains for little downside risk at this point. Ebola fears can quickly reverse the downward trend for volatility but concern remains low. We are also heading into the all-important holiday shopping season and expectations are for a solid consumer spending cycle, which has sellers scare.



Treasury yields rose this past week on reversal of flight to safety and healthy economic data. The reversal was quick and the 10-year yield is now back above 2.25%. Expectations are for the Fed to keep rates low for longer than anticipated and growth remains only modest for the U.S. economy.  Oil futures (/CL) remain at low levels and should eventually help spending by the consumer. The positive economic affect from lower crude prices has been slow but is showing signs of improvement.  



This coming week's highlight is the Fed's FOMC decision. The Fed is expected to end bond purchase programs but there may be some dissent based on recent Fed-Speak. Traders will be focusing on the state of the economy and guidance on the timing of the first rate increase likely next year. Manufacturing has shown signs of softening so the durables report will be important for forward momentum in this sector. With the economy based over 70% on consumer spending, economists and traders will also closely watch the retail sales data into the holiday shopping season.


Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:

Monday:

A.M. – BKW, CAJ, MRK, STX, TEN

P.M. – AMGN, BWLD, CLF, CROX, GGP, HIG, MTW, TMUS, TWTR, VRTS



Tuesday:

A.M. – AMTD, AET, AGN, AN, BP, COH, CNX, DD, FCX, GLW, PFE, SHW, HOT, UBS, WHR, WYNN

P.M.– AFL, APC, CHRW, EA, ESRX, FB, GILD, MAR, PNRA, WDC, X



Wednesday:

A.M. – ETN, EXC, GRMN, HSY, HES, H, RL, SODA, SO, WM, WLP

P.M. – AKAM, ALL, ATML, BIDU, KRFT, MET, SPWR, TRLA, V, WMB



Thursday:

A.M. – CAH, CI, CME, GG, K, MGM, MO, MOS, S, TWC, WWE

P.M. – EXPE, FSLR, FLR, GPRO, GRPN, LNKD, MYL, NEM, SBUX, TSO



Friday:

A.M. – AON, BUD, CBOE, CVX, CLX, D, SNE, WY, XOM



Economic Releases (10/27 – 10/31):

Monday:

8:45 am CT – PMI Services Flash

9:00 am CT – Pending Home Sales

9:30 am CT – Dallas Fed Mfg. Survey

                                                                                                                                                                              

Tuesday:

FOMC Meeting Begins

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales

7:30 am CT – Durable Goods Orders

8:00 am CT – S&P Case Shiller HPI

9:00 am CT – Consumer Confidence

9:00 am CT – Richmond Fed Mfg. Index

12:00 pm CT – 2-year Note Auction Results

                                                                                                                                                                                                            

Wednesday:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 5-year Note Auction Results

1:00 pm CT – FOMC Meeting Announcement



Thursday:

Chain Store Sales

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT – GDP

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 7-year Note Auction Results

                                                                                                                                                                                                      

Friday:

7:30 am CT – Personal Income & Outlays

7:30 am CT –Employment Cost Index

8:45 am CT – Chicago PMI

8:55 am CT – Consumer Sentiment

沁颍

10/24/2014

The Ebola scare in NYC put the brakes on the massive rally during Thursday’s session but they still managed a solid gain on the back of improving corporate results.  U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading lower as the situation may put pressure on markets over the next few days.  Stocks may also be cautious into the release of the Stress Tests from the European Union’s banks, which are due this weekend.  The Fed is also expected to end its asset purchases at next week’s FOMC meeting. Option volatility reversed higher in the afternoon yesterday but still finished the day down sharply on the equity rally. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell over 7% as the benchmark S&P 500 Index (SPX) was up over 1%. Into an uncertain weekend, we may see some risk-aversion and a rally in the ‘Fear Gauge.’



Treasuries are sharply higher as stocks slump in the U.S.  Global bond yields are lower also with the 10-year Treasury down to 2.20%. Stocks are on the decline amid after poor earnings news from Amazon (AMZN). Chinese property prices declined in 69 of 70 cities but German consumer confidence surprised on the high side. The calendar is light in the U.S. today with just September new home sales.



Stock Stories:

Ford (F) – Driving – The auto-maker posted a better than expected earnings report this morning albeit on lowered guidance. Production has slowed but the company still expects a profit of $6B this year – Pretax.  The shares are up modestly ahead of the opening bell.



Proctor & Gamble (PG) – In-Line – The consumer product-maker posted EPS that met analyst expectations but Revenue fell short. The company is blaming macroeconomic conditions and currency effects on the lower numbers. Traders are ignoring the downside as the shares are up slightly ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

9:00 am CT – New Home Sales



Notable Earnings:   

Friday – 10/24:

Before Market:  BMY, COG, CL, DLPH, F, MCO, PG, STT, UPS

After Market:  N/A





Monday – 10/27:

Before Market: BKW, CAJ, MRK, STX, TEN

After Market:  AMGN, BWLD, CLF, CROX, GGP, HIG, MTW, TMUS, TWTR, VRTS

沁颍

10/23/2014

Stocks broke their recent uptrend during Wednesday’s session but look to regain some upward momentum this morning. U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading higher on the heels of better than expected data out of the Euro-Zone. We saw some profit taking yesterday and a shooting at the Canadian Parliament also contributed to the weak finish. There are numerous earnings reports for investors to pore over today, along with some economic data which is scheduled to be released later this morning. Option volatility reversed higher on the downturn yesterday but may give some of the gains back today if we remain in positive territory. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose 11% as option buyers were aggressive but it looks as if we will most likely see a complete reversal of the gains today.



The ‘Risk-On’ trade may be in order today for investors. Treasuries are lower as stocks jump to the pre-market highs.  There was also modest declines in European bonds after some better than expected PMI readings. U.S. equity futures are rebounding after yesterday's declines on the improved manufacturing data and positive earnings. However, European bourses are flat to slightly lower after disappointing earnings news and misses in U.K. retail sales and mortgage lending data. Asian equities tracked Wednesday's weakness on Wall Street. Today's calendar is full and includes the PMI for October, initial jobless claims for the week ended October 18 and the August FHFA home price numbers. Earnings reports today include 3M (MMM), United Continental (UAL), Under Armor (UA) and Amazon (AMZN).



Stock Stories:

General Motors (GM) – Spin out – The auto-maker posted a better than expected EPS number but missed on Revenue once again. The stock price has fallen by 24% this year due to recalls and management flubs but the shares are up 3% ahead of the opening bell today.



Caterpillar (CAT) – Earth-Moving – The industrial-machine maker posted better than expected quarterly results this morning albeit on lowered expectations as the company previously lowered guidance. The Bulls are ignoring this to send the shares up 6% ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

8:00 am CT – FHFA House Price Index

8:45 am CT – PMI Mfg. Index – Flash

9:00 am CT – Leading Economic Indicators

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories

10:00 am CT – Kansas City Mfg. Index



Notable Earnings:   

Thursday – 10/23:

Before Market:  ALXN, AAL, BCC, CAT, CKP, CMCSA, CS, DO, DPS, DNKN, LLY, GM, JBLU, LO, MMM, NOK, NUE, OXY, POT, RTN, UAL, UA, UNP, USG

After Market:  ALTR, AMZN, DECK, KLAC, OLN, P, PFG, SWN



Friday – 10/24:

Before Market:  BMY, COG, CL, DLPH, F, MCO, PG, STT, UPS

After Market:  N/A