Given my assumed current normalized earnings level of$85 and the actual dividend of $23, by changing the expected earnings growth rate, the returnrequired by the investor and the assumed P/E ratio that will apply in ten years I can calculatethat today's S&P 500 index should be anywhere from 870 (assumes that our starting normalized earnings level of $85 is accurate, that the market P/E falls to 13, earnings grow at only 4% annually and equity investors require an expectation of making 9%) to 1,235 (assumes our starting normalized earnings level of $85 is accurate, a terminal market P/E of17 will apply in ten years, earnings grow at 5% per year and investors only require an expectation of earning 7% on equities).
发表于 2011-3-24 11:52
| 
发表于 2011-3-24 12:02
| 
发表于 2011-3-24 11:58
|