本帖最后由 何鸿燊 于 2011-2-12 16:34 编辑
Once again our efforts to pick out a reversal day were foiled.
Each and every time wethink "This Is It!!", the market sells off for one day, and immediately, the dip buying monkeys from the Wizard of Oz swoop in and start buying.
Meanwhile, macro traders with a bearish bias sit back, slackjawed in amazement, wonder how the S & P 500 can rally 100% in 2 years with no jobs, no recovery, rocketing commodity prices, and rising interest rates.
Let's review the checklist:
QQQQ and Russell 2000: New highs
Retail stocks: New highs
Mohammed "Sugar High" El-Erian looks like he was outgunned by the Red Bull and Monster Energy-chugging mo-mo traders now inhabiting all the "Institutional" trading desks at TIAA-CREF and CalPERs.
Bank stocks: Still going up, breaking out of a flat base
Meridith Whitney might have to cave in and follow Nouriel Roubini by buying a $5.5 million condominum in the East Village .
Cyclical stocks: New highs
I wonder if Frank "I totally missed this rally" Barbera is still hanging out in his bunker in Palos Verdes?
Now look at the transports. Tim "You Have Been Warned" Wood and Richard "Mother of All Topping Patterns" Russell must be looking at this chart in total shock:
Now let's look at some international indexes. Did FXI and IFN put in a bottom this week?
Peter Schiff and Puru Saxena could use some help here:
Must offer some condolences to the uber-bears on gold, like Dennis "I am not a gold bug" Gartman and poor Tom O'Brien over at TFNN.com. If the GDX gaps away over the 21-day and takes off, these guys are going to be left in the dust:
The clue on this one will be to see if gold can continue advancing in foreign currencies:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$GOLD:FXE,$GOLD:FXY,$GOLD:FXC,$GOLD:FXS,$GOLD:FXA,$GOLD:FXM,$GOLD:FXB,$GOLD:FXF|D
And note that the OIH, XLE, and XOP are barely off their highs, while crude is down 8 out fo the last 10 days, and natural gas has plunged to yet another new, world record low when adjusted for inflation. But no weakness in the oil stocks yet.
Oil not quite as strong as gold, but we should get a decision soon one way or another:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$WTIC:FXE,$WTIC:FXY,$WTIC:FXC,$WTIC:FXS,$WTIC:FXA,$WTIC:FXM,$WTIC:FXB,$WTIC:FXF|D
And speaking of foreign currency benchmarking, the S & P 500 is breaking out yet again overseas:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$spx:FXE,$spx:FXY,$spx:FXC,$spx:FXS,$spx:FXA,$spx:FXM,$spx:FXB,$spx:FXF|D
The only weakness I can see right now is that the Summation Index is crawling up, but it is far away from making new highs. The only way this can get corrected is if some of the lagging sectors (big cap pharma, shipping, solars) can start playing "catch up".
http://stockcharts.com/charts/indices/McSumNYSE.html
So all we can do now is to watch and wait. There are millions of eyeballs watching the exact same thing I'm watching. Thousands of hedge funds anxious to "make their year" by nailing the next top and riding the next bear cycle.
Meanwhile, Gary Kaltbaum continues to nail this market. He's been spooked a few times, but for the most part, he's been right on the money on riding the bull trend.
http://archives.warpradio.com/btr/InvestorsEdge/021118.mp3
Unfortunately, the "pro traders" over at TFNN.com have gotten it dreadfully wrong this year, fighting the tape the entire way up and losing money had over fist.
David White shorted WYNN, HBAN, and STI in the morning and got blasted....
http://www.tigeruniversity.com/mp3/PTH021111.mp3
Larry Pesavento had at least 5 key astro dates turn against him this year:
http://www.tigeruniversity.com/mp3/TWS020911.mp3
And poor Tom O'Brien started tweeting a couple of days ago, and the last one I saw was how the Russell 2000 had a "major failure" on Thursday. That call was good for less than 12 hours...
http://www.tigeruniversity.com/mp3/TOS021111.mp3
Phil Grande nailed almost every market top in 2007 - 2008, and heroically rode the market down on the bear side. This year, a dramatic reversal of fortune:
http://www.philsgang.com/media/R ... dioShow20110211.mp3
Now that Egypt is "free", stocks are trading at new highs, restaurant stocks are going parabolic, 1997-1999 hookers like ALU and JDSU are re-visting their glory, everyone has now turned their attention to Daytona Beach.
Who is going to Bike Week this year?
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发表于 2011-2-12 17:31
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