[讨论] Prediction vs Trading Strategy

snowrider

The market's surge these days brings up a discussion topic ... which one is more important: prediction or trading strategy?  Please share your thought!

not4weak

Both are important, just like we do prediction before we do ANYTHING. Prediction determines action.

A good trading strategy can make sure you won't lose much if you had a bad prediction.

棋王

有人说操作比预测重要，俺不认同。
因为预测会影响你的操作，一个人首先会有一个对市场整体的判断。
那无疑他以后的操作会或多或少的受这个思路的影响。
因此俺觉得操作和预测同样重要！

snowrider

說的好!

But the more I trade, the more I feel that trading strategy is more important than prediction.

Most people on this forum know that I am a bear a extreme bear.
But you might notice that I have holding long position especially index futures since I liquidated all my short position.  I've mentioned that many times, and I am still holding that position.

Why???  Because I never override my predition with my trading strategy.  If the prediction match my strategy, the bet will be heavy.  That explains that my bet on this bull ralley is a light position.