本帖最后由 aimei 于 2013-6-9 14:05 编辑
List of Hindenburg Omen Signals since 1980 along with the Shiller PE Ratio and % above the 5 Year Low (Months when above criteria are met are highlighted in blue)
Signal Shiller PE % above
Dates Ratio 5 Year Low
Jul-86 13.6 148%
Sep-87 18.3 120%
Dec-99 43.2 222%
Oct-00 41.9 150%
Sep-05 26.1 62%
Apr-06 26.3 71%
Jul-07 27.4 102%
Oct-07 26.7 100%
Dec-10 21.7 89%
Jun-13 24.0 146%
A review all of the prior Hindenburg Omen (H)) Signals when the Shiller PE Ratio was above 18 and the S&P 500 was at least 100% above its 5 Year Low follows.
The last Hindenburg Omen (HO) event occurred in the Summer and Fall of 2007. The first HO Signal occurred in July of 2007 (point A) which was followed by an initial 12% correction. However in this case the S&P 500 was able to rebound and make a slightly higher high three months later in October (B) which coincided with another HO Signal. This was then followed by a sharp sell off in which the S&P 500 lost 58% of its value over the next 18 months.
The next HO event was in late 1999 and 2000. There first HO signal occurred in December of 1999 (point C) which was followed by an initial correction of 10%. However the S&P 500 was able to rebound and make a higher high by March of 2000 (point D). Meanwhile a 2nd HO Signal occurred in October of 2000 (point E) which was followed by a significant sell off. Overall the S&P 500 lost 50% of its value from March of 2000 through October of 2002.
Finally the last HO event occurred in September of 1987 (point F) which was followed by a sharp 36% drop over a period of two months in the S&P 500. In this case the S&P 500 peaked the month before.
Recently another HO Signal occurred on June 3 so we shall see how this latest signal plays out. As we saw with the HO Signals in the Summer of 2007 and back in late 1999 it's possible the S&P 500 could make a slightly higher high before a much larger correction develops in the longer term. |
发表于 2013-6-9 14:03
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发表于 2013-6-9 18:50
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