[转贴] Weekend Market Update April 13, 2014

沁颍

Equities fell very sharply this past week. Technology shares sold off as being seen as overpriced “momentum” stocks and investors moved into defensive positions—either in equities or fixed income. Internet stocks were also seen as in the momentum category and declined. Most equities partially rebounded Tuesday and Wednesday on bottom fishing for techs and others. The Wednesday rally took place due to the Fed minutes revealing a more dovish stance than anticipated. The rise was modest as Thursday and Friday quickly wiped out gains. Tech continued to lead losses despite better than expected jobless claims and consumer sentiment data. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) fell 2.6% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) was the winner for the week as it fell only 2.4%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) fell 3.1% and the market-leading small caps (RUT) led the downside finishing the week off 3.6%.  The historical market-leading small caps may be signaling more pain for equities in the near-term. Despite the steep decline in stocks, the S&P 500 (SPX) is still only 4% below its all-time high reached just over a week ago.



Option Volatility was violent this week as the Bears finally took control of stocks. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose 22% for the week as volumes of options picked up steam. Market watchers have picked up negative sentiment this week as many are calling for a major correction.  Most of the pain has been in the tech, bio-tech and momentum names but these were also the stocks that rose on optimism and not fundamentals.  If the Blue chips join the downturn, the ‘Fear Gauge’ could continue higher near the psychological $20 level where it has repeatedly failed over the last year.



Treasury yields moved downward all week. Flight to safety and the ‘Risk-off’ sentiment was the driver. Also, less worry about early Fed tightening also came into play. Favorable Fed comments continued to weigh on yields and the seizing of government headquarters in Eastern Ukraine by antigovernment protesters wanting closer ties to Russia added to flight to safety. Oil futures (/CL) jumped this past week. At the start of the week, tensions in eastern Ukraine sent the price up and supply concerns also helped push crude higher.



Even though there is a moderate schedule of economic events, the news may be quite significant after last week’s sell-off in equities. We get more data to see if the spring rebound is underway after a horrible winter. The market will look to see if consumers went shopping during the March’s warmer weather. Inflation was unexpectedly strong for the March PPI and a big question is whether it will show up in March consumer price inflation on Tuesday. Housing data is also due and could show whether home-buyers are returning during the typical robust spring season. Earning season also kicks into high gear this week led by Citigroup (C), Intel (INTC), Coca-Cola (KO) and Google (GOOG) among others. Markets are closed on Friday ahead of the Easter holiday weekend.


Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:

Monday:  C, PJC, UBNK, WWW



Tuesday: CMA, CSX, INTC, IBKR, JNJ, KO, PBY, SCHW, YHOO



Wednesday: ABT, AXP, BAC, COF, GOOG, IBM, NE, PJC, SLM, SNDK, STJ, USB



Thursday:  ADS, AN, ATHN, BHI, BAX, BLK, CMG, DHR, DD, FITB, GE, GS, HON, MAT, MS, PEP, PM, SLB, SHW, UNP, UNH



Friday: None – Markets Closed



Economic Releases (4/14-4/18):

Monday:

7:30 am CT – Retail Sales

9:00 am CT – Business Inventories

                                                                                                                                                                                

Tuesday:

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales

7:30 am CT – Consumer Price Index (CPI)

7:30 am CT – Empire State Mfg. Survey

8:00 am CT – Treasury Intl. Capital

9:00 am CT – Housing Market Index

                                                                                                                                                                                                              

Wednesday:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

7:30 am CT – Housing Starts

8:15 am CT – Industrial Production

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

1:00 pm CT – Beige Book

                    

Thursday:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

9:00 am CT– Philly Fed Survey

                                                                                                                                                                                                        

Friday:

9:00 am CT – Leading Economic indicators

Markets Closed

Elephant

谢谢