[转贴] GNW 保险的简单FA分析 - turn around

st168

By eiknarf of Hutong9

GNW　保险的简单FA分析 - turn around
GNW　保险业的TURN　AROUND
3-5个月TAKRGET　20+

The company operates in three segments: Retirement and Protection, International, and U.S. Mortgage Insurance。

现在BOOK　VALUE是30+。

其国际BUSINESS，加拿大和澳大利亚的部分就能VALUE　12-15/每股，而加拿大澳大利亚作为原材料和农业的大出口国，现在STILL　BOOMING，所以GNW在加澳的生意非常赚钱。

GNW在U.S. Mortgage Insurance还在亏钱，MARKET　PRICE这部分BUSINESS为0。
而实际上，美国delinquencies过去几个Q一直在减少，随着QE2，新的TAXCUT的9000亿刺激，　美国经济明年GDP上调为3。5%，预计这块生意能基本很块小亏不亏钱。

FHA今年10月调高Mortgage Insurance的价格，这个对GNW是个BOOST，GNW开始重新写新的MI生意。


最近美国国债大跌GNW的BOND大涨，BOOK　VALUE大涨, BOOK　VALUE>30

其他有利因素-在股东HF压力下，有可能STOCK　BUYBACK或发红利。

st168

1# st168

   " . does it still have the risk related to the AIG such? or this guy is different? why it was sub $1 not long ago? "      Poo 发表于 2010-12-13 22:29

   一般保险公司是收PREMIUM，HOLD　BOND赚利息。
2009年初，所有的公司都摇摇欲坠，很多公司的BOND都跌的很厉害，从一块跌到50C，30C，10C的都有，而这些保险公司HOLD的BOND一般有个几倍的LEVERGE，所以跟着大盘跌到好象要破产一样。现在没有这样的RISK了。

GNW比AIG安全多了，GNW在加拿大澳大利亚的BUSINESS基本没有任何风险，杠杆也小多了。GNW就是在美国的生意也值10-15$的，现在开始价值回归，如果接下来美国经济有RECOVERY的话，美国经济不需要美国强GROWTH，只要GDP2011　增长》2.5%就行，而现在经济学家，GS等预测美国经济增长2011 3.5%左右。所以GNW可以BUY　DIP，并且在金融保险里面比较安全，不一定是涨的最多的，但是很安全, risk/reward好.

st168

2# st168

谢谢littletiger的数据比较。

GNW国际的BUSINESS如果以PEER的PRICE/BOOK=1，GNW国际的BUSINESS就VALUE现在的股价。

而因为世面上到处是美国房价还要跌20%-30%，所以GNW美国国内的MORTGAGE生意就估价为零？如果同类对比RDN/MTG的MORTGAGE生意，GNW美国国内的MORTGAGE生意值10$/SH。

那么GNW应该VALUE在20-25，PRICE/BOOK=0.9，接近PEER的估值。
而实际上如果经济好转，那么PB是应该>>1的，从littletiger的数据可知，所以UPSIDE会更大

考虑到明年的GDP增长和2011年通货膨胀会从中国传导到美国，我个人认为房地产在BOTTOMING的过程，小跌会有，20-30%的下跌的FEAR不太可能。

大家可以看看著名的Bill Ackman's Awesome Presentation。他认为房地产到底了，一家之言，不过可以参考。

Check Out Bill Ackman's Awesome Presentation On Why The Time Is Now To Invest In Housing

---eiknarf

st168

2# st168

回复 11# eiknarf

some other insurance companies

Symbol         Price        P/B        5 Yr Avg P/B
ALL        28.98        0.9        1.5
CB        53.76        1.1        1.4
MET        41.42        0.9        1.2
PRU        59.08        1        1.4
TRV        50.27        0.9        1.2


note:

GAAP book value is an unstable metric, particularly for financial companies that use aggressive investment strategies. Various nonGAAP book values are more stable and better reflected true values during the meltdown. In times of financial stress investors may be able to secure excellent returns by developing and applying an understanding of the asset valuation issues highlighted by these differences.

There is a potentially messy complication. Companies that are forced sellers either due to liquidity or de-risking concerns, such as pressure from rating agencies, can suffer rapid and permanent loss of value. At the bottom, there is always the fear that things could get worse, creating pressure to realize losses rather than hold through to recovery.

Book value cannot be used in isolation as an investment criterion. Investors should consider the risks and growth potential associated with the company's operations, as well as the quality of assets, the accuracy of estimated liabilities, and the investment philosophy employed. Under stable economic conditions and average levels of investor confidence insurance companies trade at a premium to tangible book value.