[技术分析] Perfect Wave - 2012-1/2 (II)

snowrider

(I) = http://www.yayabay.com/forum/thread-183033-1-1.html

snowrider

Quote from ScalperJoe:

Got it, thanks.  However, I'm curious as to how you get the 960 target, and what is the scenario for it to occur this year?

If it breaks 1,320 then perhaps it goes flatline to around 1,250-1,290 range during mid-summer (near mid-point of 5 wave pattern which began last October), before closing out in the black for 2012.

Without some climactic event (war, lack of additional QE, hyperinflation, Euro/dollar collapse, etc), I'm not sure the market is poised break the prior two years of intrayear lows and to fall to 960.  I'm not suggesting it won't retrace on the larger wave count eventually, just not by the end of this year.

Your thoughts, comments?

ScalperJoe - Thanks for nice commenting.  About the 960 area target, it is just at a 0.382 fib ratio from 2009-03 lo to the recent hi.  I would like to take back what I mentioned last time about the timing of the end of this year.  I mentioned that because I wanted to load something for next year by the end of this year.  The actual timing could be 2013-09 to see the big cycle low.  When the time is there, and when the price is at a fib ratio (say, 0.5 at 1045), that will be an excellent opportunity to load.

snowrider

Quote from toc:
Snowrider,

given that you have been doing the EW for sometime now, what percentage of your calls prove to be good.  have never been into EW although use Fib retracements etc. at times.

toc - The successful rate of my purple lines (preferred counts) is about 50% (half-half), so it is nothing special and nothing significant by simply following my purple lines.  However, the good thing and advantage of using EW for trading because it provides some strict rules so that we know where to go and where to stop once our preferred counts are wrong.

snowrider

把你也放了吧，以后我要问你炒股的事，可要好好告诉我呀。
1235678 发表于 2012-4-12 11:19

謝謝 38妹

snowrider

Quote from ScalperJoe:

snowrider,

Given the recent swings in SPX, is it safe to interpret the past five down bars as "A" and today's snap back rally as "B" of Wave 4, which may last a few more days, followed by a "C" wave back down?  The way I read the current pattern, the SPX falls below its current 50 day moving average of 1,370 again, thus completing the A-B-C pattern in Wave 4.

However, I find the difficulty in EW analysis is in attempting to pinpoint the accuracy of when Wave 4 ends and when Wave 5 begins, until of course after the fact!

ScalperJoe - Yes, that is a way of counting this if we predict that the downward movement is in ABC mode.  Another way of counting this is to treat the 5 down bars as wave 1 of the downward movement, so we just about finishing wave 2.  There are many other ways of counting this.  My trading philosophy is trying to lay out as many possible counts as I can, and then watch those critical area to see if there is any reversal sign (in order to confirm which count is more likely and to trade).

snowrider

偶實在不希望它今天來個黑色星期五 雖然要是真來了 偶EDZ及TLT將大賺 但是偶卻沒機會加碼期指了 ... 大家看看歷史上的黑色星期五及黑色星期一許多次了 1987 的那次是偶還懵懵懂懂的剛剛下海的時候就碰到了 ... 這市場有這個味道 ... 希望不要這麼快 ...

snowrider

04/14/2012

Comments are welcome!

snowrider

snowrider,
the count of the "thewavetrading" since the oct. 2011 low for the S&P is more logic for me than yours:


Sixer

Sixer - Thanks for sharing your thought!  Yes, yours is a valid and good count.  I have had similar count before changing to the current one.  If we count that way, the wave-IV (your (4) wave) could also be counted as a flat.  See the following old post:



And your count:

snowrider

前兩天也有人跟偶討論到這個 這個偶沒貼 現在貼

Quote from EliteThink:

[B]the odds of that occuring in an election year for the spx are low.  1325-1340 should be solid support. [/B]

EliteThink - Thanks for sharing your thought!

snowrider

are you bullish on SPY for mid-term since you are holding UPRO

問得好!  偶中期及長期都看空 ... 看大空頭!  但是偶不確定的是中期 目前偶波的算法是[A]-[B]-[C] (over) 然後向下數 ... 偶不知它是否會走成 [I]-[II]-[III]-[IV]-[V] where the [I] is the [A],  [II] is the [B], [III] is the [C] ... 所以偶持有UPRO以防萬一有個[V]上去.

snowrider

04/21/2012

Comments are welcome!

snowrider

EURUSD和SPX为啥背离那么厉害？
knock 发表于 2012-4-21 23:42

knock - 它們之間沒有任何關連性  

snowrider

Quote from Wide Tailz:

So we all anticipate the SP500 coming down from the bear flag.  This consensus makes me nervous... traders rarely agree!

Wide Tailz - Thanks for commenting.  I am nervous too because the market won't let people make money so easily.  See my purple line wave count has a wave-2 in a bull trap formation.  I would like to see a pop before the market starts moving down.

snowrider

请教一下：一般认为美元涨则美股大盘跌，欧元美元跌，所以看起来过去几个月有这样的共振。从这个角度看还是有关联的。能否明示一下？谢谢！
knock 发表于 2012-4-22 17:50

knock - Good point!  妳提出一個恢常好的觀察  是的  有時它們會有共振現象(正向或反向)  如果我們要以觀察一個東西的走勢來判斷另一個東西的可能走向  那將會是令人失望並且是一種十分危險的假設  因為兩者之間的互動實際上是因為第三者(第四者...第N者)的因素所造成  say,
X -> A
X -> B
We cannot conclude that A -> B 或是 B -> A

偶引述一段以前偶登過的:

大部分的人都會關心 市場之間的關聯性
偶到是一點都不 care
因為看過許多從正相關變成負相關或變成不相關
偶們大部分看到貨幣貶值股市漲  但也有過長期一塊漲或一塊跌的 (e.g., 最近美元與美股就是一塊漲跌的)
若追根究底  總是可以查出背後漲跌的原因  但對偶這個 TA purist 來說 ... I don't care
偶做哪個市場就看哪個圖  不管任何其它市場的任何圖
若是走FA路線的人 可能想要搞清楚 市場之間的關聯性
若是走TA路線的人 建議還是將它當成黑盒子 不要理它 輕鬆簡單又愉快

snowrider

谢谢雪骑老大！那么牛啊，啥时候到3600啊?另外，在那里可以看到老大如果更新A股的图呢？

maopao  -  偶一直就是只有看著上證指數圖  而沒有精確測量  所以 3600 是偶在圖上隨手一指的點位  既然妳問了  那偶就認真得看看  好了  偶要修正目標:

因為浪[A]走了9個月1813(3478-1665=1813)點  浪[C]在時間及幅度上一般不會小於浪[A]  所以保守估計為先看等幅等時距:
01/06/2012@ 2133 (起漲點) + 9個月1813點 (等幅等時距) = 9月底10月初@3946
剛好3895是6124下跌到1665的50%
所以偶會留意:  3895~3946 的這個區間

偶沒有在貼上證指數的圖  上次是剛好大牛他聊到  所以偶就提供些個人的猜測