[讨论] Shall bears surrender now?

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股神II 股神III 股神 I 活力新人

2^#

发表于 2014-5-3 20:46 | 显示全部帖子

to answer this question, more questions be thrown out first.

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3^#

发表于 2014-5-3 20:50 | 显示全部帖子

本帖最后由 oldhorse 于 2014-5-3 21:09 编辑

does Nasdaq really lag sp500?
from one year chart,no;
6 months, yes.

is nasdaq truly indicative of the market?
se chart yourself, the answer is no.

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发表于 2014-5-3 20:51 | 显示全部帖子

本帖最后由 oldhorse 于 2014-5-3 21:05 编辑

what about RUT?
does it tell us anything we don't know?

although rut is lagging now, it did catch-up a few times before, it may very well do it all over again.

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发表于 2014-5-3 21:04 | 显示全部帖子

本帖最后由 oldhorse 于 2014-5-3 21:19 编辑

and any technical indicators showiing where the market is marching?
MACD is still in a bullish trend;
RSI appears a bit higher than neutral.
however, BB is narrowing which tells widening is gonna happen sooner or later, we just don't know which direction yet while the middle line is saying up.

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6^#

发表于 2014-5-3 21:07 | 显示全部帖子

Has money flown into safe heaven stock?
yes

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发表于 2014-5-3 21:11 | 显示全部帖子

本帖最后由 oldhorse 于 2014-5-3 21:25 编辑

has the market abandoned growths stocks?
yes.

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8^#

发表于 2014-5-3 21:13 | 显示全部帖子

is vix close to 52 weeks low?
yes., soon we will get that point.

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9^#

发表于 2014-5-3 21:23 | 显示全部帖子

本帖最后由 oldhorse 于 2014-5-3 21:26 编辑

how about the problem child, ukrine?

very short term, it will drive vix up, but that's as much as it can do.
having a war is good news for stock market.
the more problems in the world, the better usa.

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股神II 股神III 股神 I 活力新人

10^#

发表于 2014-5-4 14:48 | 显示全部帖子

TLT shows divergence indeed.

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股神II 股神III 股神 I 活力新人

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发表于 2014-5-4 14:55 | 显示全部帖子

1)now， I think the market is going sideways with ultimately bullish trend, i.e. would be higher until we have recession, which was said by the guy on MW.
10% correction is mission impossible in near future.

2)hold my short position and get out of it whenever having a chance.

3)play long or short on individual stocks and forget about the market trend.

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股神II 股神III 股神 I 活力新人

12^#

发表于 2014-5-4 15:12 | 显示全部帖子

回复 oldhorse

The ultimate goal is SPX 2000?
黄金奇异果发表于 2014-5-4 15:02

the guy on MW said spx is going to 2300 before going down, I think it is possible.
if we were not to hit recession, I think even 3000 is nothing.
this mad cow is just unstoppable.

I wish I would be wrong as I have short position, hehe.

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股神II 股神III 股神 I 活力新人

13^#

发表于 2014-5-4 15:14 | 显示全部帖子

回复 oldhorse

I got excited this weekend that my bond holding generated a relatively biggest YT ...
读书2014 发表于 2014-5-4 15:05

topping pattern has occurred many times now and then, but it doesn't matter.
mad cows could run as long as they want.

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股神II 股神III 股神 I 活力新人

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发表于 2014-5-4 15:21 | 显示全部帖子

we have to look at things objectively;
trading is gambling, remember?

trading has nothing to do with investing which is logical, while trading has absolutely no logic inherently.

trading is driven by emotion and demand;
the emotion in mad cows is pretty crazy and the demand for US safe heaven gambling is high too.

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15^#

发表于 2014-5-4 15:31 | 显示全部帖子

本帖最后由 oldhorse 于 2014-5-4 15:32 编辑

I think it is better to re-enter the market than be a bystander.
it is premature to crash the market.1800 has to be broken first which is a long way to go.

we have quite a lot time before 1800, i.e. we have our chance to exit on the way down to 1800 if that were to happen.

being in the market, you have the chance.