ZT： from Pro
Cool Off Period
Stocks have been scorching hot since the beginning of June gaining nearly 15% in that stretch. And that move came as most investors were sure stocks could only go down. So as many got sucked into the rally last week, Mr. Market laughs and says time to take a rest.
That does not mean that the three and a half year bull rally is over. It's just a good time to take a pause. Or see a modest correction in the 3-5% range as we await greater clarity on the obstacles facing the market:
• European recession
• Chinese growth
• Fiscal Cliff
It is not a stretch to say that stocks could trade at 1500-1600 based on the current earnings picture. So we will climb those heights as we clear these three hurdles. Yet if those hurdles prove too high, and the earnings picture deteriorates, then lower we will go.
Right now I put greater odds on the optimistic case playing out with stocks moving higher by years end and into 2013 |
发表于 2012-9-18 10:57
| 
