Diver

This morning’s trade saw mixed action in Asian markets following the weekend’s heavy dose of China data that saw September exports up nearly 10% YoY and inflation tamer than month earlier results, off August’s 2% pace at a 1.9% rate, but September’s loan activity less than expected. China’s Shanghai Composite slipped 0.3%, but Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 0.1%. Bargain hunters drove Japan’s Nikkei 0.5% higher, as traders were also encouraged by remarks from the Bank of Japan that suggested yen intervention possible. South Korea’s Kospi slipped 0.4%; Australia’s S&P/ASX 500 edged 0.1% lower.

Diver

European bourses were on firmer footings ahead of the week’s European Union summit, although concerns still permeated markets on the potential of a Spanish bailout request and resolution of Greece’s appeal for its next tranche of aid. On Friday worries mounted on reports that finance ministers at Tokyo’s IMF/World Bank meetings focused on the ESM’s ability to meet a funding request from Spain, should a full bailout be requested. However, sentiment improved after various officials claimed other means available to increase the European Stability Mechanism’s (ESM) capital holdings.

Diver

European traders found the weekend China data more encouraging than their Asian peers, also hopeful that last week’s soft US equity showing might prove a breather in the recent rallying action. Among the major indices, the French CAC is 1.2% higher with the German DAX up 0.8% and UK FTSE 100 up 0.5%. The broad gains are extending into non-core nations’ exchanges with Spain’s IBEX 35 0.8% higher and Italy’s FTSE MIB up 1.2%.

Diver

So too US futures point to higher Monday beginnings, with the DJIA futures trading 0.4% higher, the S&P500’s up 0.5%, and NASDAQ’s up 0.6%. The week’s calendar of macroeconomic data will cover a wide range of items including manufacturing, housing, consumer prices and consumer spending.

Diver

Today’s calendar includes September retail sales (estimated up 0.7% versus 0.9% prior) and sales ex-auto (estimated up 0.6% versus 0.8% previous). The October report on New York manufacturing is forecast to remain negative, although less so, with the Empire Manufacturing post forecast at -2.8 versus -10.4 prior. On Friday the Philly Fed is set to report its latest manufacturing data, expected improved at a still-minus 0.1, but improved from September’s -1.9 print. A post on business inventories may show August stockpiles 0.5% higher, slowing from July’s 0.8% rise.

Diver

Diver，不小心将你的开帖删了。本来准备删俺的
cellphone 发表于 2012-10-15 09:28

    never mind.

Diver

Investors: What Are You Most Afraid Of?

After sprinting to new highs the stock market has stalled out. In fact, it has recently been retreating in the face of improving economic numbers.

Why is that?

Which answer you believe to be the cause for the recent market pullback?

1) European Debt & Recession

2) Slowing of Chinese Growth

3) Fiscal Cliff

4) None of the Above: This is just a consolidation period before moving to new highs.

Diver

回复 11# Diver


    ZT from pro:

I think the answer is 4. Meaning this is just a consolidation period before the next move higher. That move may have to wait til after the election. And really it doesnt matter who is elected for it to keep going higher.

I know that answer is not well liked in some circles. But this is not a politically motivated statement. It is just a statement of fact which is more important than who I may want to get into office.

Remember the stock market has gone up nearly 100% under President Obama. And historically there is a slight edge for the stock market during Democrat Presidencies (but not a large enough spread to brag about). So there is no reason to believe it will collapse just because he is elected again.

And no problems from a Romney administration either in terms of what that would mean to the economy or market in the months/years ahead.

Its just the uncertainty of who will win that may put the market on pause. Then I think we start heading higher. Especially if there is some traction on the Fiscal Cliff. If that becomes a political mess, then markets will probably push back a bit more. Hopefully our elected officials have better sense than that (a 50/50 coin toss on that one).

Diver

Investors: What Are You Most Afraid Of?

After sprinting to new highs the stock market has stalled ...
Diver 发表于 2012-10-15 10:02

zt:

#3 Fiscal Cliff is the most common response. And none of the above- just a consolidation before next move higher is in 2nd place.

And yes, investors may be reticent to bid up stocks more if the Fiscal Cliff is left untamed and it sends us into a recession.

I think we are in good shape here...at least on the tax side.

If Obama gets re-elected he has already pledged to leave the tax breaks in place for 98% of taxpayers.

If Romney is elected he says he will keep the Bush tax breaks and then trim another 20% from the rates for all taxpayers.

The above already takes a lot of potential sting out of the Fiscal Cliff. To be honest, I dont want them to undo the spending cuts. Our government does not have a revenue problem...its spending. At most I want them to re-consider where cuts take place. But the size of the cuts should stay in tact.

You see we need to trim down our debts now with rates super low. Because when they go higher and our debt is as bloated, then we become a PIIG like those other European nations.