[闲谈] 20121012 YYB日间灌水

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up

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indicators appear to have found bases from which to rally from having been oversold; a bounce up today is expected to inaugurate the anticipated near-term trend rally.

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Producer Price Index

Released On 10/12/2012 8:30:00 AM For Sep, 2012 Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual PPI - M/M change 1.7 % 0.8 % 0.2 % to 1.5 % 1.1 % PPI less food & energy - M/M change 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.1 % to 0.3 % 0.0 %

Highlights Headline inflation remained unexpected strong at the producer level in September but weakened at the core level. Overall PPI inflation posted at 1.1 percent, following a 1.7 percent jump in August. Market expectations were for a 0.8 percent increase. The core rate, which excludes both food and energy, was unchanged after rising 0.2 percent the month before. Analysts projected a 0.2 percent rise for September. Food inflation eased to a 0.2 percent increase after a 0.9 percent boost in August. Energy remained robust with a monthly 4.7 percent jump, following a surge of 6.4 percent the prior month. Gasoline increased 9.8 percent, following a 13.6 percent spike in August. Within the core, higher prices for light motor trucks were offset by declining prices for communication and related equipment. For the overall PPI, the year-ago rate in September came in at 2.2 percent versus 2.0 percent in August (seasonally adjusted). The core rate in September stood at 2.3 percent, compared to a year-ago 2.6 percent the prior month. On a not seasonally adjusted basis for September, the year-ago headline PPI was up 2.1 percent, while the core was up 2.3 percent. The latest PPI report clearly was mixed with energy still strong but the core soft. Equity futures were little changed on the news.

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Stop Denying the Facts

The early exuberance over the Jobless Claims report on Thursday morning was well founded. That had stocks up nearly 1% before noon. Then all the air got let out of the balloon resulting in a breakeven finish.

With the weekly claims at the best post recovery level of 339,000, it helps confirm the positive trends that led to the recent drop of the unemployment rate to 7.8%. And it looks like this very positive trend is picking up speed.

This is something to be applauded. And reason for optimism. There is no trickery or sleight of hand as espoused by some with political axes to grind.

Diver

黑色星期五，黑色星期五，黑色星期五。
黄老泻 发表于 2012-10-12 09:20

    impossible for today.

The worst senario for today would be SPX and RUSSEL red but DJIA and NASDAQ green.

Diver

not likely ... I thought 1440 ... but now it is dragged down by financials
not4weak 发表于 2012-10-12 09:46

    financials seem selling on news after good ER's this morning.

Diver

the drag down also came from AAPL and GOOG.

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Beige, Black & Blue

The Fed's Beige Book echoed what we have seen in other recent economic reports. That being a modestly improving US economy. Unfortunately that peppier tone was not good enough to stop Wednesday from being the 4th straight day of losses for stocks.

Pulling back to the bigger picture, this just looks like another consolidation period for a market intent on hitting new highs. To make that a reality we need economic data to stay on its current healthier track. And we need this earnings season to surprise to the upside. Both are likely outcomes.

Unfortunately there is a 3rd factor which might mitigate the above factors. That is the tightening of the US presidential race. As pointed out numerous times in this column, investors disdain uncertainty. Therefore, the unclear final outcome of this election may put the market on hold til early November no matter the status of earnings or the economy.

Don't Quit on the Market Just Yet

Too often customers read about a trading range or consolidation period with the assumption it's time to head away from stocks. That would be foolish.

Gladly we are in the midst of earnings season which always offers a great opportunity to latch onto exceptional companies ready to soar.

Diver

Today’s early morning sentiment tone suggests traders inclined to end a weak week on a high note. US equity index futures on the DJIA and S&P500 are trading 0.2% higher, while NASDAQ futures are flat. Asian shares closed lower in front of upcoming data on China’s economy and concerns for the lack of follow-through in North American trade on Thursday. The major indices in Europe are also modestly weaker this morning despite industrial production numbers showing southern nations contributed to the unexpected, second straight monthly gain of eurozone factory activity, up 0.6% from July.

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US traders turn their attention to prospects for the financial group, with results due out this morning from Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) and JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM). Analysts expect positive impacts from a strengthening US housing market, as was revealed in JP Morgan’s surge in home lending profits, and management’s statement that “the housing market has turned the corner." Third quarter earnings surged 34% to $1.40 and revenues rose 6% to $25.15 billion. Forecasts called for earnings of $1.21 on revenues of $24.42. The banks’ forward-looking comments will be examined closely, as front line beneficiaries or victims of economic activity, and may prove especially encouraging after the recent poor guidance offerings from the likes of Alcoa (NYSE:AA), Cummins (NYSE:CUM), Chevron (NYSE:CVX), and earlier warnings from FedEx (NYSE:FDX), Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE:HPQ) and 3M (NYSE:MMM), who have laid their downside guidance on the feet of slowing global growth horizons. Consensus forecasts place financials at the top end of earnings expectations; according to FactSet the Street believes easy comparisons with year earlier results and cost-cutting measures will boost financial quarterly profits by 10%, while weakened demand in Asia, particularly China, is forecast to hurt profits among material, metals producing and mining firms.

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Last night’s weak guidance from Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE:AMD) provided the latest in the list of downside profit forecasts from management blaming larger forces at work for product demand falloff. According to the firm, “weaker-than-expected demand across all product lines caused by the challenging macroeconomic environment” caused the lowering of sales forecasts to a 10% quarterly decline from earlier estimates of a 1% drop, plus or minus 3%. This morning a 24% quarterly profit gain at India’s Infosys (NASDAQ:INFY) failed to offset margin concerns and disappointing guidance. The firm failed to raise revenue estimates for the March fiscal year, anticipating 5% gains ex-Lodestone AG; a twitchy investment community had expected a raise to 6% with the Lodestone purchase included.

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Yesterday’s equity markets failed to hold onto early session gains, which had been engendered by a Labor Department report on weekly jobless claims that showed an unexpected falloff to their lowest since mid-February, down 30K to 339K. Also adding to the positive sentiment were a Citigroup (NYSE:C) upgrade on US equities to “overweight,” a successful sale of E3.8 billion Italian 3-years, reports of a possible $12.8 billion deal for a Sprint (NYSE:S) stake by Softbank, and a successful debut of real estate service provider Reology, the third largest IPO of the year, which served as a bullish reminder of improving US housing markets.

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Great!

Consumer Sentiment

Released On 10/12/2012 9:55:00 AM For Oct, 2012 Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual Sentiment Index - Level 78.3 78.3 75.0  to 81.0 83.1

Market Consensus before announcement The Reuter's/University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for the final reading for September fell to 78.3 from 79.2 at mid-month. Still, the final September reading compared very well with 74.3 in August as well as July's 72.3. Softness of the last two weeks was centered entirely in the assessment of current conditions which fell 2.6 points from mid-month to a final September reading of 85.7. This was three points below the final August reading which does not generally bode well for monthly economic data in September. But expectations were a big positive, improving one tenth from mid-month to end at 73.5 which was up an extremely strong 8.4 points from August.

Definition The University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center questions 500 households each month on their financial conditions and attitudes about the economy. Consumer sentiment is directly related to the strength of consumer spending. Consumer confidence and consumer sentiment are two ways of talking about consumer attitudes. Among economic reports, consumer sentiment refers to the Michigan survey while consumer confidence refers to The Conference Board's survey.

Diver

突破！！！ 猫熊，俺不幸言中了：
cellphone 发表于 2012-10-12 10:00

    fake broke out. it will be erased today.

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bottomed: