Full Stochastics上周已現明顯跌勢。三條平均線，目前只剩下20周線(551美元)未跌破。這兩周是跌市，但成交增加。總括來說，谷歌短線有機會反彈，但600至605之間阻力重重，恐會行人止步，中線則看周線圖的MACD會否跌破，月線圖(這裡沒有顯示)則已跌破一條長期上升軌，小心為上，短線投資最重要轉身快和定下止蝕盤。」
[attach]102224[/attach]
高盛上周跌勢轉急，短期一兩日可能反彈，但幅度不大，要轉身快。高盛現正考驗50周線148美元，但筆者並不認為它能守穩，要跌到130-135美元才會有支持。作者: 何鸿燊 时间: 2010-2-4 00:12 标题: Goldman May Lose Record Profit to Bid-Ask Spread
本帖最后由 何鸿燊 于 2010-2-3 23:15 编辑
Chart of Day
Feb. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. will find it tough to reproduce last year’s record trading revenue as the difference between bid and offer prices in credit markets narrows to the tightest in almost 18 months.
The CHART OF THE DAY shows how the gap between prices at which traders offer to buy and sell credit-default swaps on North American companies has shrunk to 6.1 basis points, from as high as 20.4 in October 2008 and 16.3 in March. Historically wide spreads on everything from derivatives to bonds, representing fees earned per trade, helped fuel the recovery in bank earnings.
“It’s much tougher to earn those” profits now, said Adolfo Laurenti, deputy chief economist at Mesirow Financial Inc. in Chicago. “The more efficient the market is, the narrower the spread is supposed to be.”
Goldman Sachs’s revenue from fixed-income, currencies and commodities trading surged to $23.3 billion in 2009, while JPMorgan posted fixed-income markets revenue of $17.6 billion. The return to pre-crisis spreads may reduce the industry’s profitability at the same time regulators are threatening to curb risk taking.
Justin Perras, a spokesman for JPMorgan, and Goldman Sachs spokesman Michael DuVally, both in New York, declined to comment.
Bid-ask spreads on the 125 companies that are part of the Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index Series 13, a benchmark for the credit-default swaps market, averaged 6.3 basis points this year, compared with 10.4 in all of 2009 and 9.7 in 2008, CMA data show. The spread averaged 4.2 basis points in 2007. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.
Credit-default swaps are derivatives, contracts with values derived from assets or events, including stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, interest rates or the weather. Banks, hedge funds and insurance companies use the swaps to insure bonds and loans against default or to speculate on the creditworthiness of countries and companies.
收到一位讀友Z電郵，他認為圖表不可盡信，他特別指出不同意 Research in Motion(RIMM)這一浪會見77美元。如果看慣本欄文章的讀友，應當了解筆者對圖表的看法一向比較靈活。筆者上周回答葉姓讀友的問題時，已表示圖表理論未達完善，有時的確是盡信書不如無書。對於RIMM，上周走勢比大市疲弱，一度下跌到200日線左右水平，但筆者並看不到圖表上出現關鍵性的破壞，至今仍維持原來看法。
啊～操作失誤扣了兩次錢，下了一張看不懂的圖，我暈倒