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标题: [讨论] 2012-8-24 每日灌水 [打印本页]

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 00:16 标题: 2012-8-24 每日灌水

俺抓耳挠腮、硬着头皮看了一圈图表，磕了一颗药，战战兢兢地探出头来，小心翼翼地问：

要是俺说明天可能会继续跌、不会大涨，不知道会有多少童鞋要砸俺砖头？

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 00:19

明天可能有反弹，但是没跌完。下跌目标还没到。

作者: dsp 时间: 2012-8-24 00:45

confused. Tomorrow will be green?

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 00:48

confused. Tomorrow will be green?
dsp 发表于 2012-8-24 00:45

俺也想知道。

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 00:58

DIA appears to be in a long-term uptrend

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 00:59

SPY appears to be in a long-term uptrend

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 00:59

IWM appears to be in a long-term uptrend

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 00:59

QQQ is in a strong bullish trend

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 00:59

XLF appears to be in a Medium-term rally

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 01:00

GLD shares appear to be in a near-term uptrend

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 01:00

SLV shares appear to be in a strong near-term rally within a longer-term bearish trend.

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 01:00

The Stochastic Oscillator shows that UUP shares are oversold.

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 01:00

Although TLT/'s 200-day moving average is trending higher, there is significant evidence that the bullish trend is near an end.

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 01:01

AAPL is in a strong bullish trend

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 01:01

GOOG is in a strong bullish trend

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 01:01

AMZN is in a strong bullish trend

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 01:03

DIA今天有强烈买信号！五天内有效。

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 01:03

SPY今天有强烈买信号！五天内有效。

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 01:03

DIA今天有强烈买信号！五天内有效。

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 01:04

IWM今天有强烈买信号！五天内有效。

作者: catbear 时间: 2012-8-24 01:04

你是在说反话吧？

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 01:04

IVV今天有强烈买信号！五天内有效。

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 01:04

RSP今天有强烈买信号！五天内有效。

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 01:05

今天资金流入SPY。

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 01:05

今天资金流入IWM。

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 01:06

今天资金流入AAPL。

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 01:06

看起来明天上涨的可能性很大。

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 01:08

加上明天又是周五。在最近以来的N个星期里，每逢周五就牛！

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 01:10

好了，报告完了。俺要下线了。明天早上再见。

作者: 喜欢热闹 时间: 2012-8-24 01:10

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作者: FluffyClouds 时间: 2012-8-24 01:11

拜见版主！

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 01:12

OOPS，明天早上俺可能要睡个懒觉，管它爱涨就涨，爱跌就跌呗。

反正俺现在已经把明天的帐篷架好了，你们大家就尽情地玩吧，烤牛排也行，炖熊掌也行。

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 01:14

拜见版主！
FluffyClouds 发表于 2012-8-24 01:11

不敢当。

欢迎新童鞋！

作者: FluffyClouds 时间: 2012-8-24 01:22

谢谢！版主辛苦了。
明天看涨？

作者: silicon_beaver 时间: 2012-8-24 02:10

砖头!

He-He, Bullish Friday.

作者: 無心風月 时间: 2012-8-24 02:44

作者: NYQ 时间: 2012-8-24 06:53

俺抓耳挠腮、硬着头皮看了一圈图表，磕了一颗药，战战兢兢地探出头来，小心翼翼地问：

要是俺说明天可能 ...
Diver 发表于 2012-8-24 00:16

砸俺砖头？-------鸡蛋行不？可是比花贵多了，舍不得。

作者: blessed 时间: 2012-8-24 08:01

好了，报告完了。俺要下线了。明天早上再见。
Diver 发表于 2012-8-24 01:10

俺以为误入了4F的地盘

作者: cellphone 时间: 2012-8-24 09:11

估计今天是开在1400一下一点点，破掉整数关口。心理上对牛牛有打击。后市下探1370的可能性越来越大。除非，今天来个低开高走（俺预期的）。但也要看这个高走有多强，从而决定后市。

另外，今天是周五，收盘位置将决定本周K线形态和位置。也是观察重点。

作者: cellphone 时间: 2012-8-24 09:20

一种情况是，许多基金将止损设在前低以下一点。如果开盘破掉1400以下5，6点，止损不会触发。若来不及调整，当低开高走时会触发止损单造成卖压，所以盘面上会看到 gap 被填。如果没有后续买盘进场，将寻找新低。

作者: cellphone 时间: 2012-8-24 09:24

所以，为了健康的下跌，期待小幅反弹并维持2-3小时的反弹格局形成一个熊旗。

如果大幅反弹，熊熊考虑关掉仓位。

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 09:25

老大，大半夜的吓虎了妞妞吓熊熊。。。到底明天是啥呀？
喜欢热闹发表于 2012-8-24 01:10

不敢。俺的瞎蒙结论在第一楼。后面其它楼是俺报告所看到的情况。俺看到一派牛气、歌舞升平的景象，而俺的看跌判断是离经叛道、不符合主旋律，所以，俺才战战兢兢地说俺的看法，生怕被砖头砸扁啦。

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 09:26

你是在说反话吧？
catbear 发表于 2012-8-24 01:04

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 09:30

砖头!

He-He, Bullish Friday.
silicon_beaver 发表于 2012-8-24 02:10

老大你给俺的是金砖！

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 09:32

砸俺砖头？-------鸡蛋行不？可是比花贵多了，舍不得。
NYQ 发表于 2012-8-24 06:53

也行，俺可以当鸡蛋超人。

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 09:33

俺以为误入了4F的地盘
blessed 发表于 2012-8-24 08:01

哦

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 09:36

今天最重大的宏观经济数据：

Durable Goods Orders
Released On 8/24/2012 8:30:00 AM For Jul, 2012
Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual
New Orders - M/M change 1.6 % 1.6 % 1.9 % -1.0 % to 7.0 % 4.2 %
Ex-transportation - M/M -1.1 % -2.2 % 0.4 % -0.8 % to 1.0 % -0.4 %

Highlights
A second month of large aircraft orders fed a second month of large gains for total durable goods orders which jumped 4.2 percent in July on top of a 1.6 percent jump in June. But when looking at orders excluding transportation equipment the story is one of softness with the reading at minus 0.4 percent following a downwardly revised minus 2.2 percent result in June.

Civilian aircraft orders surged 78 percent in July following a 63 percent surge in June. But also part of the July gain for transportation equipment are motor vehicle orders which jumped nearly 13 percent following a slight decrease in June. Motor vehicles are a much larger component than civilian aircraft and gains for vehicles point to rising activity for related suppliers as well as gains for related employment.

Motor vehicles are a very important business for primary metal manufacturers whose orders rose solidly in July. But there is weakness in other components including electrical equipment, communications equipment, machinery, and fabricated metals.

Aircraft is skewing the reading for nondefense capital goods orders which surged 6.8 percent overall but fell 3.4 percent excluding aircraft. The decline in the ex-aircraft reading for capital goods will have economists trimming their outlook for third-quarter GDP.

Other readings include a big 2.6 percent rise for total shipments, a solid 0.8 percent rise for unfilled orders, and a moderate rise of 0.7 percent for inventories in a build that does not point to imbalances.

Manufacturing is getting a needed lift right now from aircraft, though there are questions on the outlook for the sector when aircraft orders swing back down. Stock futures are moving lower following today's report.

作者: NYQ 时间: 2012-8-24 09:37

本帖最后由 NYQ 于 2012-8-24 09:38 编辑

所以，为了健康的下跌，期待小幅反弹并维持2-3小时的反弹格局形成一个熊旗。

如果大幅反弹，熊熊考虑关掉 ...
cellphone 发表于 2012-8-24 09:24

Yes, Sir. 一个小spy put关掉了。观战。准备下周转牛。

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 09:39

估计今天是开在1400一下一点点，破掉整数关口。心理上对牛牛有打击。后市下探1370的可能性越来越大。除非， ...
cellphone 发表于 2012-8-24 09:11

老大早。

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 09:40

Big Yawn on Stock Sell Off

Given the low volatility of late the -0.8% decline of the S&P on Thursday seemed meaningful... but it's not.

Simply the market is playing out the "making new highs dance" as performed many times before. Rarely do stocks break through on the first attempt. So now we see a modest pullback to 1400, which provided solid support.

Likely that is as far down as we need to go. Or to make it interesting, bears may have enough vigor to produce a sell off to the 50 day moving average level of 1370.

From there we should make another attempt at the highs of 1422. And likely will get above if the economic data continues to come in at current levels or better (which spells positive GDP growth=earnings growth=higher share prices).

作者: not4weak 时间: 2012-8-24 09:47

买一笔吗？
抢一下反弹？

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 09:49

US equities had rallied to multi-year heights early this week on hopes for another round of Fed easing, resolution of Europe’s sovereign debt crisis and steadily improving US economic data that suggested the recovery was rebounding from a slump in the first half of the year. US corporations had just exited their corporate earnings season, and although analysts’ revisions had kept the bar low, the results indicated an earnings beat rate of 68%, better than the past four quarters’ 62% average, according to Reuters. However, hopes are sly things, based upon the wings of events not yet occurred, while counted in the hard currency of higher stock prices, subject to disappointment and reassessment, as was the case on Thursday.

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 09:50

Economic reports cast global prospects in doubt, from early reports showing China’s manufacturing output at a nine-month low to surveys in the eurozone detailing contraction for the area for the seventh straight month, which caused economists to determine Europe’s first half would surely slip into a “technical recession” of two straight quarters of negative growth.

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 09:50

The DJIA turned in its fourth straight decline Thursday, down 115 points, or 0.9% to a 13,057 close. The S&P500 dropped 0.8% and finished at 1402, holding above the key1400 level. The NASDAQ declined 0.7% and ended at 3053. Trading volume was more anemic that most days this past, dried-up August month, and decliners were ahead of advancing shares by a wide, seven-to-three margin.

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 09:51

Only Kraft (NYSE:KFT) and Pfizer (NYSE

FE) managed gains among the DJIA thirty, rising 0.7% and 0.2%, respectively. Hewlett-Packard (NYSE:HWP) led DJIA decliners, down 8.2% after last night’s Q3 revenues fell short of estimates and FY2012 guidance disappointed, as the company blamed weakness in PC sales. The interims weighed on other tech company shares, bringing Dell (NASDAQ

ELL) shares 3.8% lower, a day after its weak guidance had cost the firm a 5.4% drop. DJIA component Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) lost 2.7% in tech-sympathy; Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE:AMD) was also lower, off 2.7%. Boeing (NYSE:BA) lost 3.4% on news it had lost an order for 35 of the firm’s 787-9s from Qantas that attended the airline’s report of its first annual loss in seventeen years.

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 09:51

All ten S&

500 industry sectors went red yesterday, led by such economically-sensitive groups as basic materials (-1.6%), which was also impacted by evidence of weak China demand, and technology (-1.0%), whose shares have received double-whammies from lowered full year guidance from Dell (NASDAQ

ELL) due to weak PC sales, as well as confirmation in Hewlett-Packard’s (NYSE:HPQ) results that fed into stock performances in the rest of the group. Oil and gas shares lost 1% after weekly inventory statistics showed a greater-than-forecast, 5.4 million barrel drawdown, and as profit-taking in crude prices had set in after two rising sessions had lifted prices to three-month highs. Also lower: utilities (-1%), industrials (-0.8%), financials (-0.8%), consumer goods (-0.8%), consumer services (-0.7%), telecommunications (-0.4%), and health care (-0.1%).

作者: NYQ 时间: 2012-8-24 09:51

买一笔吗？
抢一下反弹？
not4weak 发表于 2012-8-24 09:47

让四哥（领导）先买。

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 09:51

US economic data came in mixed Thursday, casting Fed intentions further into the dark. The FOMC meeting minutes had shown members in a dovish light, save the uncertain upcoming input of recovery signals. St Louis Fed President Bullard reminded investors that recent data had come in relatively strong, and that the minutes were indeed “stale.”

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 09:52

The weekly jobless claims showed an unexpected, 4K increase to 372K from 368K (revised from 366K) and up from 365K anticipated. Four-week average claims were also up, posting at 368K from a revised 364.25K. Continuing claims of 3.317 million topped forecasts of 3.298 million. The numbers were not so bad as to promise Fed easing, nor good enough to claim employment trends much improved.

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 09:52

Housing once again provided recovery signals. July’s new home sales rose 3.6% to a 372K pace from 359K (revised from 350K) in June and up from forecasts of 362K.

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 09:52

The FHFA Housing Price Index showed houses not only selling in July, but prices higher. The index showed prices up 0.7% from June, besting estimates of 0.6%, and up 3.6% from a year ago.

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 09:53

Among companies whose shares fell the hardest in yesterday’s trade, Guess (NYSE:GES) shares tumbled 23% on disappointing current quarter guidance and inline Q2 results, as the firm blamed a downturn in European tourism for its weak outlook. European concerns have cast a pall over the recent corporate earnings season outlooks. Reuters reported three eurozone sources had averred Spain is currently negotiating with EU policymakers for a sovereign bond rescue that would put a lid on the nation’s funding costs. Other media asserted the European Commission denied any such claims.

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 09:53

This morning’s forex trade shows the euro trading 0.4% lower against the US dollar at 1.2518, as uncertainty that the month’s early, bullish “Draghi effect” will materialize into concrete resolutions for the peripheral nations. Yesterday the euro had climbed to a seven-month highs as hopes quickened for concerted ECB action to cap peripherals’ sovereign yields.

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 09:53

Among the European exchanges, sentiment has soured this morning, both as US markets yesterday turned cautious and as rumors surrounding any prevention of a Greek exit or a bailout of Spain grow increasingly worrisome. Greece wants more time, but less conditionality; Spain is not certain it needs to make a formal request for a full-scale rescue at all. Germany would like to avoid doling out money without control of fiscal behavior. The issues are straightforward, but political minefields are explosive for all parties involved, and most experts expect that while headline reports may continue to move markets, little can be expected until September, when the troika return to evaluate Greece’s finances, Germany’s Constitutional Court rules on the ESM, and the European Commission meets, despite Chancellor Merkel’s statement calling for swift action to ameliorate the crisis, and asserting all members on board do so too.

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 09:54

Among European bourses, the UK FTSE 100 is currently trading off 0.2%; Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC are down 0.3%. Among the periphery, Spain’s IBEX 35 is trading 0.4% lower, Italy’s FTSE MIB is down 0.5%; Greece’s AEX is 1.0% higher. Spain’s benchmark 10-years, a barometer of eurozone angst have added 2 basis points for a 6.37% yield with 2-years 2 bps higher at a 3.73% yield.

作者: NYQ 时间: 2012-8-24 09:55

潜大，从哪儿整来这么多宝贝？

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 09:57

买一笔吗？
抢一下反弹？
not4weak 发表于 2012-8-24 09:47

取决于老大你的TIMEFRAME，看你打算HOLD多久咯。反弹会有的。

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 10:00

星期五的底通常不会是底。

下周会有更低点。

可能下周二会有反弹。

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 10:02

让四哥（领导）先买。
NYQ 发表于 2012-8-24 09:51

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 10:07

你看我身上只有全身短，想买长HEDGE也没钱了。

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 10:14

我更新了几篇日志。

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 10:16

今天的跳空是要补的。

作者: aimei 时间: 2012-8-24 10:34

waw
来不及看呀
thanks all

作者: hq1888 时间: 2012-8-24 10:36

星期五的底通常不会是底。

下周会有更低点。

可能下周二会有反弹。
Diver 发表于 2012-8-24 10:00

典型的上升趋势中的20SMA反弹. 这是这么多天第一次碰,一定弹. 这次能弹多高不知道. 142左右总要去重测的.

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 10:48

今天的跳空是要补的。
Diver 发表于 2012-8-24 10:16

今天的开盘跳空现在已经补上了。

目前好象是ALL UP。

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 10:51

更新一下信号情况：

除了DIA、SPY、IWM、IVV、RSP有强烈买入信号外，15分钟前MDY和XLF也出现强烈买入信号！

同时，GOOG的卖出信号消失。

看来是要涨了。

作者: 喜欢热闹 时间: 2012-8-24 11:00

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作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 11:00

今天现在童鞋们大家都还在睡觉？

作者: NYQ 时间: 2012-8-24 11:05

顶顶顶！老大给裁判一下，瞬间击穿1400，不算偶输吧？
喜欢热闹发表于 2012-8-24 11:00

这叫恰到好处。

哈哈，估计领导也无话可说。

作者: cellphone 时间: 2012-8-24 11:07

新动向，美元和美股变成正相关了

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 11:08

顶顶顶！老大给裁判一下，瞬间击穿1400，不算偶输吧？
喜欢热闹发表于 2012-8-24 11:00

不算不算，留待下周分解。

作者: cellphone 时间: 2012-8-24 11:11

目前按照俺的2）剧本走。。。

作者: tfmegatron 时间: 2012-8-24 11:12

顶顶顶！老大给裁判一下，瞬间击穿1400，不算偶输吧？
喜欢热闹发表于 2012-8-24 11:00

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 11:15

发生什么事了？美元突然下跌。

作者: 喜欢热闹 时间: 2012-8-24 11:16

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作者: catbear 时间: 2012-8-24 11:20

今天的反弹上看多少？

作者: NYQ 时间: 2012-8-24 11:25

本帖最后由 NYQ 于 2012-8-24 11:27 编辑

太猛了，哪像反弹？

作者: NYQ 时间: 2012-8-24 11:31

目前按照俺的2）剧本走。。。
cellphone 发表于 2012-8-24 11:11

Niu!!!

作者: tfmegatron 时间: 2012-8-24 11:31

嘿嘿嘿，，，，
喜欢热闹发表于 2012-8-24 11:16

I said first break of 1400 is a buy, but no gurantee for the future...

作者: aimei 时间: 2012-8-24 11:35

I said first break of 1400 is a buy, but no gurantee for the future...
tfmegatron 发表于 2012-8-24 11:31

主席猛

作者: 喜欢热闹 时间: 2012-8-24 11:40

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作者: cellphone 时间: 2012-8-24 11:47

小牛牛们手舞足蹈，不知道大鳄鱼就在后面

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 11:47

今天的反弹上看多少？
catbear 发表于 2012-8-24 11:20

应该就在这里了。1409附近。最多不超过1415。

作者: CoolMax 时间: 2012-8-24 11:48

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 11:48

1409是回测跌破的上升幅度通道下轨，1415是下降通道的上轨。

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 11:49

然后是再继续下一条腿下跌。

作者: tfmegatron 时间: 2012-8-24 11:50

是不是咱俩都没输没赢？，，，那个谁谁说的就算他赢了！！给他发鲜花吧？
喜欢热闹发表于 2012-8-24 11:40

要不，AA吧？啊哈哈。。。when i changed my target from 1415 to 1400, i knew the chance is little...

作者: cellphone 时间: 2012-8-24 11:51

还是那句话，看点在1410。能回到之上且站稳3小时，则属强势整理。否则，属于 kiss bye

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 11:51

分时图上既然已经跌破了头肩顶的颈线，目前还没到目标位，不可能现在就已经跌完了。

作者: Diver 时间: 2012-8-24 11:53

I said first break of 1400 is a buy, but no gurantee for the future...
tfmegatron 发表于 2012-8-24 11:31

牛！

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