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标题: [转贴] The Most Important Trading Day of the Year [打印本页]

作者: 何鸿燊 时间: 2011-10-28 18:08 标题: The Most Important Trading Day of the Year

Submitted by Jeff Clark on Thu, 10/27/2011

Monday marks the last trading day [2] for October. How the market [3] closes on that day will tell us a lot about where we're headed for the next several months.

Longtime readers know I use the 20-month exponential moving average [4] (EMA [4]) to identify bull [5] and bear markets. If the S&P 500 is trading above its 20-month EMA, stocks are in a bull market [6]. If the index [7] is trading below it, the bear [8] is in control.

As you can tell from the following chart... last month, the S&P 500 closed below its 20-month EMA...

Even though, according to this chart, stocks entered a bear market [9] at the end of September, I was still willing to buy into the stock market in early October in anticipation of a year-end rally. You see, each of the previous times the S&P broke the line to the downside, stocks always rallied back up to "kiss" the line from below. I expected we'd get that "kiss" this time as well, and it could lead to powerful gains in just a few months.

It only took three weeks.

Now we're at a critical point again. The S&P 500 is currently trading about 20 points above its 20-month EMA. If it can hold this level until Monday and close above the line, all the stock market weakness of the past few months is likely to turn out to be just another "whipsaw [10]" moment – similar to what we saw last year – and we can look forward to higher stock prices over the next several months.

On the other hand, if the S&P 500 closes below its 20-month EMA on Monday, the chart is going to look horrifically similar to the action in 2001 and 2008. That action led to declines of 37% and 46% respectively for the S&P during those bear markets.

No matter whether you're leaning bullish [5] or bearish [8], Monday is likely to be the most important trading day of the year.

图片附件: sp500.gif (2011-10-28 18:08, 17.59 KB) / 下载次数 21
http://169.62.244.154/forum/attachment.php?aid=480874&k=312b679bfcb583d7409af066cb8b8e60&t=1732960323&sid=8Ov5LH

图片附件: Chart of SPY.png (2011-10-28 18:09, 48.76 KB) / 下载次数 21
http://169.62.244.154/forum/attachment.php?aid=480875&k=88a82fe15feeb070392bbdae13913b38&t=1732960323&sid=8Ov5LH

作者: tfmegatron 时间: 2011-10-28 18:10

close at 1300+ for Oct...

作者: 看彩云伴海鸥 时间: 2011-10-30 10:55

Submitted by Jeff Clark on Thu, 10/27/2011

Monday marks the last trading day [2] for October. Ho ...
何鸿燊发表于 2011-10-28 18:08

我看这第三浪有可能到1500去。

作者: 何鸿燊 时间: 2011-10-30 17:42

回复 3# 看彩云伴海鸥

图片附件: xeu.png (2011-10-30 17:42, 65.6 KB) / 下载次数 20
http://169.62.244.154/forum/attachment.php?aid=482510&k=def10cbbab9e5bfa2b5e47daf53fc889&t=1732960323&sid=8Ov5LH

图片附件: dow.png (2011-10-30 17:42, 47.95 KB) / 下载次数 22
http://169.62.244.154/forum/attachment.php?aid=482511&k=906a48f451b062a6d9af7c1069186de9&t=1732960323&sid=8Ov5LH

图片附件: nya.png (2011-10-30 17:42, 69.1 KB) / 下载次数 25
http://169.62.244.154/forum/attachment.php?aid=482512&k=1bf8a93b11984e081555850e6c12605b&t=1732960323&sid=8Ov5LH

图片附件: rut.png (2011-10-30 17:42, 80.85 KB) / 下载次数 20
http://169.62.244.154/forum/attachment.php?aid=482513&k=2adc4ce64f4ce87aa1d9c440b69be90b&t=1732960323&sid=8Ov5LH

图片附件: vix.png (2011-10-30 17:42, 47.39 KB) / 下载次数 28
http://169.62.244.154/forum/attachment.php?aid=482514&k=3bb6d8dcd6f5e02b3af127f07b1deb1c&t=1732960323&sid=8Ov5LH

作者: 看彩云伴海鸥 时间: 2011-10-30 19:55

牛眼看牛，熊眼看熊！
No matter whether you're leaning bullish [5] or bearish [8], Monday is likely to be the most important trading day of the year。

作者: dvork 时间: 2011-10-30 21:52

看看周一表现，该割就割吧

作者: not4weak 时间: 2011-10-30 21:56

看看周一表现，该割就割吧
dvork 发表于 2011-10-30 21:52

你说割？割什么？

作者: dvork 时间: 2011-10-30 22:01

回复 7# not4weak

割那些七月种的股票

作者: not4weak 时间: 2011-10-31 15:54

老何v5!!!!!!!!!

作者: seagal 时间: 2011-10-31 15:58

继续抄底。。。越来越便宜了。。。

作者: 何鸿燊 时间: 2011-10-31 16:28

回复 9# not4weak

这可不是偶干的。其实是海娃弟弟楼里的重型MM发威了！

http://www.chineseindc.com/forum/thread-171709-1-1.html

http://www.chineseindc.com/forum/thread-171709-1-1.html

作者: seagal 时间: 2011-10-31 16:46

别怕，王朔小痞子翻不了天，明天继续涨。。。这个year end rally是MM白送钱，我是大胆持有，吃的饱睡的香。。。

作者: not4weak 时间: 2011-11-1 22:16

别怕，王朔小痞子翻不了天，明天继续涨。。。这个year end rally是MM白送钱，我是大胆持有，吃的饱睡的香。 ...
seagal 发表于 2011-10-31 16:46

今天又买了么？

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