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标题: [讨论] 简单计算表明SP可能跌到1066! [打印本页]

作者: not4weak 时间: 2011-3-23 20:44 标题: 简单计算表明SP可能跌到1066!

本帖最后由 not4weak 于 2011-3-23 22:30 编辑

This assumes that investors require a minimum 8% expected return, that the S&P earnings and dividend will grow at 5% (3% GDP growth plus 2.0% inflation) and that the long run S&P 500 P/E ratio is 15. Higher S&P 500 index values are implicitly assuming that the current normalized starting earnings level is higher than $85, that earnings growth will exceed 5% annually, that the justifiable long-run P/E exceeds 15, and/or that investors require less than an 8% (pre-tax) return.

作者: not4weak 时间: 2011-3-23 20:48

Our assumption is that the S&P earnings will grow with GDP at about 5% per year and yield a 1.73% dividend yield and sell at a long-term P/E of 15 in ten years.

作者: tfmegatron 时间: 2011-3-23 20:49

作者: farshine 时间: 2011-3-23 20:56

坏人!

作者: 棋王 时间: 2011-3-23 21:02

This assumes that investors require a minimum 8% expected return, that the S& earnings and dividend will grow at 5% (3% GDP growth plus 2.0% inflation) and that the long run S& 500 P/E ratio is 15. ...
not4weak 发表于 2011-3-23 20:44

坏人。

图片附件: MW-AE193_blankf_MD_20100407091924.jpg (2011-3-23 21:02, 13.34 KB) / 下载次数 13
http://169.62.244.154/forum/attachment.php?aid=283459&k=7bf4ba56fc3fdae1da77ba2b504d5756&t=1740403774&sid=WjGUWH

作者: not4weak 时间: 2011-3-23 22:44

你们看看, 这计算是对的, 以10年为限

作者: ctcld 时间: 2011-3-23 22:51

你们看看, 这计算是对的, 以10年为限
not4weak 发表于 2011-3-23 22:44

你说10年后SP回到1066？我倒。

除非加州大地震都到太平洋里去。

作者: not4weak 时间: 2011-3-23 23:16

7# ctcld
姑且不说你的理解错误吧.
你要清楚的是, 十年前SP在哪里? 怎么就不可能? CITI的例子不是说明问题吗? DIVIDENDS全发完了... 公司MATURED了. 十年股价不涨, 你能如何?

作者: 停车坐爱 时间: 2011-3-23 23:35

活在裆下。。。十年后，儿子都娶媳妇儿了。。。

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