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标题: [转贴] 图和分析 [打印本页]

作者: 棋王 时间: 2011-2-13 12:22 标题: 图和分析

DISSECTING THE REVERSALS IN 2000 AND 2007... Stocks remain in bull mode with fresh 52-week highs in the major indices. There is little doubt that the big trend is up. Many pundits, myself included, consider the stock market overbought and ripe for a correction or a pullback. However, buying pressure simply shows no signs of letting up and selling pressure has been almost none existent the last few weeks. Continuations of an existing trend are more likely than reversals. In other words, reversals are the exception, not the norm. As far as the big uptrend is concerned, we have yet to see a large topping pattern that would suggest a major reversal. Let’s look at the last two major reversals for an idea of how tops form. The last major bearish reversal occurred at the end of 2007. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 advancing from 800 to 1550 over a five year period. There were pullbacks along the way, but the index continued to forge higher highs and higher lows until the second half of 2007. After edging above 1550 in July 2007, the index declined sharply with a quick 100+ point drop. $SPX bounced to establish support just below 1450, but failed to take out the prior high in convincing fashions. With the second move below 1450, a double top took shape and support was clearly marked. The index broke support with in decisive fashion with a sharp decline that extended into 2008. Note that the 52-week Slope turned negative at the beginning of 2008 to confirm this reversal.

The second example comes from 2000, which was the scene of the dot-com bubble. After trading relatively flat in 1993 and 1994, chart 2 shows the S&P 500 with a five year advance from late 1994 until early 2000. This time, the index more than tripled with a move from 450 to 1550. There was a peak just above 1500 in March 2000 and then at least two more failed attempts to hold above 1500 later than summer. Overall, the index basically consolidated for the first 9 months of 2000. This consolidation turned out to mark a distribution as the index clearly broke support with a move below support in late 2000. Weakness continued into 2001 as the index broke its 2000 lows. The 52-week Slope turned negative along with the first support break in late 2000.

S&P 500 SHOWS NO SIGNS OF A MAJOR TOP... While no two tops will be exactly the same, most involve some sort of failure near a prior high or a lower high, a distribution pattern or sideways consolidation and a clear support break. Tops often take time to evolve because buying pressure does not dissipate overnight. Tops form during this transition period as the bulls to bears slug it out for control. Chart 3 shows the S&P 500 with a breakout and 52-week high. A reaction high has yet to even form. We have yet to see a major topping pattern such as a double top, triple top or head-and-shoulders. We have yet to even see a consolidation. The current bull run is around 2 years old. The last two bull runs lasted 5 years and the average bull market lasts 3.6 years. Some are shorter. Some are longer. No two are the same. Should a correction materialize, I would mark first support with broken resistance.

Charting Notes: Another 104 weeks were added to the time scale. You can do this with the parameters in the extra bars. A blank window can be added above with the OBV indicator set to 0.0 Opacity (Hat Tip G.G.). You can also click on this chart to see the settings and save it to your favorites.

MOVING AVERAGE DIRECTION IS IMPORTANT TO TREND ... Even though the S&P 500 remains well below its 2007 high, the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index ($SPXEW) is poised to challenge this high. Chart 4 shows a 10 year chart with monthly candlesticks for the S&P 500. The 2007 high is at 1576 and the current price is around 1320. It would take a 20% rally from current levels for the S&P 500 to exceed this high. Before moving to the next chart, notice that the 12-month moving average is rising and the 12-month Slope is positive. Upturns in the 12-month moving average coincided with the 12-month Slope moving into positive territory. The reverse is true for downturns. Chartists mostly use moving averages in relationship to the price of the underlying security. However, the actual direction of the moving average is also important. A rising moving average is identified with an uptrend, while a falling moving average is identified with a downtrend. Even though $SPX closed below the 12-month SMA in June and August, the moving average remained in an uptrend and never turned down.

S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT INDEX NEARS 2007 HIGHS... Chart 5 shows the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index trading around 4% below its 2007 highs. This index is performing more like the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500. This makes sense because large-caps dominate the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index has the same constituents, but it is an equal opportunity index. The smallest stock counts as much as the largest stock. Underperformance from the S&P 500 can be attributed to the finance sector and a few large banks.

图片附件: spx11.png (2011-2-13 12:22, 45.11 KB) / 下载次数 19
http://169.62.244.154/forum/attachment.php?aid=264900&k=86f7ad546956f0284606db4739b34abd&t=1740460116&sid=zNaOWC

图片附件: spx22.png (2011-2-13 12:22, 42.18 KB) / 下载次数 17
http://169.62.244.154/forum/attachment.php?aid=264901&k=4dd0ea5561ebb1fb239fc98de10260ff&t=1740460116&sid=zNaOWC

图片附件: spx33.png (2011-2-13 12:22, 41.37 KB) / 下载次数 14
http://169.62.244.154/forum/attachment.php?aid=264902&k=dc3810906920b68eb5b5ce69c554b677&t=1740460116&sid=zNaOWC

图片附件: spx44.png (2011-2-13 12:22, 35.92 KB) / 下载次数 19
http://169.62.244.154/forum/attachment.php?aid=264903&k=1306afcb2e22b1b7b4f458b85603a17b&t=1740460116&sid=zNaOWC

图片附件: spx55.png (2011-2-13 12:22, 30.12 KB) / 下载次数 16
http://169.62.244.154/forum/attachment.php?aid=264904&k=cf85315c2f9b0340deea96e3351fc691&t=1740460116&sid=zNaOWC

作者: seafood 时间: 2011-2-13 12:31

谢谢棋棋

作者: 西门吹雪 时间: 2011-2-13 13:06

作者: icc 时间: 2011-2-13 13:21

Thanks for the quality analysis! what do you think about small cap index fund like Russell 2000. Do you have chart for that? Thanks!

作者: 何鸿燊 时间: 2011-2-13 22:59

看来还要涨4%以上？

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