[基础分析] Federated's Orlando Sees S&P 500 Rising to 1,200

何鸿燊

http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp ... D=741112213&A=h

何鸿燊

By Jeff Kearns

Oct. 16 (Bloomberg) -- The benchmark index for U.S. stock options fell for a 10th day, the longest streak since May 2005, as better-than-estimated earnings reports pushed the Dow Jones Industrial Average above 10,000 for the first time in a year.

The VIX, as the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index is known, decreased 7.3 percent this week to 21.43 today, the lowest since September 2008. The index measures the cost of using options as insurance against declines in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, which rose 1.5 percent after JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Intel Corp. results beat analysts’ projections.

“When you have the market moving up at a gradual pace that’s the perfect recipe for a falling VIX,” said Jeremy Wien, a VIX options trader at Societe Generale SA in New York. “People are definitely a lot less fearful than they were a few weeks ago and the fear that we’ll tank or that the rally is a complete illusion is subsiding after most of the earnings results were positive.”

The VIX has dropped 74 percent since closing at a record 80.86 in November. It remains above its average of about 20 over its 19-year history. VIX futures expiring in November gained 1.6 percent to 25.30 today while December contracts advanced 1.2 percent to 26.05.

The Dow average rose 1.3 percent to 9,995.91 during the week and closed as high as 10,062.94 on Oct. 15, surpassing the five-digit milestone that it first exceeded in 1999. JPMorgan increased 0.5 percent during the week after reporting its highest profit since 2007. Intel advanced after its sales forecast surpassed estimates.

The VIX never exceeded 50 before Lehman’s collapse in September. It topped 40 after WorldCom Inc.’s 2002 bankruptcy, the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, Long-Term Capital Management’s collapse in 1998 and the Asian financial crisis in 1997.

In Europe, the benchmark gauge of stock-market volatility fell 4.1 percent this week to 25.20 and its Oct. 15 close of 24.78 was the lowest since September 2008. The VStoxx Index measures the cost of protecting against a decline in shares on the Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 Index, which rose 0.4 percent for the week.

何鸿燊

By Cotten Timberlake

Oct. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Spending in the U.S. on luxury goods and services spurted 29 percent in the third quarter from the previous three months, as consumers with the highest incomes unleashed pent-up demand, according to Unity Marketing.

Spending among 1,067 consumers with average annual income of $228,800 rose to $18,826 each in the three months ended in September from $14,554 a quarter earlier, the Stevens, Pennsylvania-based luxury-market research firm said today. Shoppers cut spending by 3.2 percent in the second quarter and spent $13,429 in the third quarter of 2008.

The increase was driven by consumers with the highest income levels, starting at $250,000 a year, said Pam Danziger, Unity’s Marketing’s president. Spending was strongest in the home, travel and dining segments, she said. The wealthy curbed purchasing earlier this year because of Wall Street job cuts, lower home values and volatile financial markets.

“No question that this quarter’s spending increase is good news for luxury marketers,” Danziger said in a telephone interview today. “Many affluent consumers returned after sitting on the sidelines for a year. However, the richest are few in number, 2.5 million households, so competition will be fierce to win their attention.”

MasterCard Report

U.S. luxury sales rose 3.4 percent to $891 million in September from a year earlier, the first such gain since August 2008, according to figures provided today by credit-card company MasterCard in its SpendingPulse report. Last month, those sales fell 13 percent from the previous year.

The luxury category covers apparel, leather goods and department-store sales at the highest 10 percent of prices. SpendingPulse measures retail sales across all payment forms, including cash and checks.

United Marketing said purchases increased in all but three of the 22 product and service categories it tracks.

The highest-income group spent an average of $43,111 in the latest quarter and the lowest-income group tracked, with earnings of $100,000 to $149,999, spent $10,423. The three categories that didn’t gain were fashion accessories, fashion apparel and art, Danziger said.

Gains in confidence among luxury consumers, meanwhile, slowed, Unity Marketing said.

The researcher’s luxury confidence index rose 1.6 points to 75.9, after jumping 18.6 points to 74.3 in the previous quarter. That index peaked at 113.2 at the end of March 2006. Its low was 40.3 in September 2008. It started at 100 in January 2004.

The findings were based on a survey conducted among adults aged 24 to 70 with income of at least $100,000 from Oct. 2 to Oct. 7. Unity Marketing does not calculate a margin of error. It plans to publish the survey results Oct. 19.

To contact the reporter on this story: Cotten Timberlake in Washington at ctimberlake@bloomberg.net