[放炮] Is the Breakout Official?

farshine

Stocks broke above their 200 day moving average with conviction on Tuesday.

On Wednesday they gave back a little early in the session before rallying into a breakeven close...and the 2nd close above the 200 day.

Thursday is a near repeat of Wednesday’s action with heavy selling early on followed by a massive rally into slightly positive territory. That makes 3 in breakout territory.

That's the technical picture. On the fundamental front take your pick of:

    ISM Manufacturing showing expansion
    ISM Services showing expansion
    ADP showing a WHOPPING 325K jobs added in December
    Jobless claims under 400K again and again.
    Q4 GDP estimates of 3.5 to 4% are quite common
    Less negative headlines out of Europe (or at least we are becoming immune to them)
    Improvement in Chinese economic #s (they ain't dead yet)
    All of the above

So is the breakout official? My answer is YES!

The speed and final destination of the breakout are the mysteries. But I think clearly the direction is up.

Could it breakdown and fail? Most certainly. Anything is possible especially given the difficulties in Europe. But the longer they don’t implode, then the less likely that is to happen. And so US investors are getting tired of the “Continent that Cried Wolf” and realize that stocks are still the best game in town (versus all other reasonable investment options…or at least for those who would like a rate of return above 2%).

西门吹雪

aimei

谢谢
:jj2

not4weak

等于两面都说了。

farshine

等于两面都说了。
not4weak 发表于 2012-1-5 21:19

观点十分清楚， 你为什么说两面都说了？