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[转贴] 奥巴马可能提出的促就业方案及利弊分析

新浪财经讯 北京时间9月5日晚间消息,据美国全国广播电台(NPR)报道,当奥巴马总统9月8日向国会公布其就业方案时,他将不得不在经济刺激项目支出与控制预算间做出平衡。NPR现对奥巴马或将提出的6项建议的赞成、反对观点及政治因素逐一进行了分析。

  延长薪资税减免

  赞成观点:薪资税(社保基金来源)减免将于12月31日到期。支持者称其有两项好处:增加雇员的现金流,进而他们的消费也会增长,因此会促进经济发展;还会降低雇主的运营成本。支持者还称该政策将给急需额外现金的人群以帮助,这些人更易于从储蓄中取钱消费,因为薪资税负担不成比例的主要由中低收入者承担。

  反对观点:薪资税减免未能显著促成支出增长或雇佣增加。反对者认为该措施仅帮助有工作的人,而不是那些迫切需要帮助的失业者。

  政治因素:白宫希望将薪资税减免延期一年作为主要经济政策。奥巴马总统称这将给每个美国人带来1000美元的额外收入。但国会共和党人对此表示反对,他们称该政策将加大政府预算赤字,并认为重审税收政策是一个更好的选择。

  延长失业补助受益期

  支持观点:将钱给予那些最需要的人,他们最有可能马上将钱花出去。这将有利于私人部门,增加销售收入进而有利于增加雇佣。

  反对观点:这将增加政府支出。同时,一些经济学家称失业补助会延长失业者的失业期(批评称这会减弱失业者寻找工作的动力)。由于失业补助由雇主来承担,所以延期会不利于雇佣。

  政治因素:总统已提出过延期的要求,预期将在就业方案中重提此方案。目前的失业补助延期政策将在明年1月到期。自2009年起国会已5次批准延期,大多数美国人对此项政策持支持态度。但通过该方案也会不利于即将开展工作的超级委员会提出预算削减计划。

  为雇主减税

  支持观点:给予增加雇员、工时或涨工资的雇主税收减免激励。大部分经济学家支持这一方案,认为这是直接促进就业增长的很好方案。一些经济学家认为,一项制定良好的减税政策可在未来两年增加就业人员200万左右。

  反对观点:对必然增加雇员的雇主给予税收减免,潜在减弱了对最受困行业的影响。

  政治因素:一些自由派议员反对给予特定雇主减税优惠,尤其是那些将工作外包或拒绝将海外利润汇回美国(可以避税)的公司。但奥巴马总统和一些共和党议员支持该方案。

  减少监管及签署贸易协议

  支持观点:包括美国商会(the U.S. Chamber of Commerce)的支持者认为,废除不必要的监管规定,将为企业界减轻巨额负担,这将利于其新增雇员或投资。美国商会同样认为,未决贸易协议的签署,可避免38万工作岗位遭裁减,并可创造上万个就业岗位。

  反对观点:很多经济学家认为,监管改革会有所帮助,但其有限的影响不会显著促进经济增长。考虑到贸易,经济学家警告称,对贸易协议的评估应建立在出口增长上而不是仅仅使进口增长。

  政治因素:很多民主党人认为,减少监管将造成不良后果,他们指出金融业的监管减少引发了房屋抵押市场的崩溃和经济危机的爆发。

  基础建设支出

  支持观点:维修道路、桥梁、铁路和扩大公共交通的基础建设方案是健康经济体所必需的,大部分政界人士和经济学家同意此观点。奥巴马总统已经要求国会再次通过《水陆运输法案》(the Surface Transportation Act)。一些经济学家称,在该项目上每支出10亿美元可创造1.4万个就业岗位。

  反对观点:共和党议员反对支出增长。总统的预算方案为未来6年支出5560亿美元,意味着未来十年在公共运输领域的支出将增长一倍多。

  政治因素:即使是反对奥巴马大多数经济政策的美国商会也支持该政策,认为将“重建我们的经济平台”。这些项目还将获得华盛顿以外地区的支持,因为这有利于在州和地方一级政府增加公共和私人部门就业。经济政策研究所(The Economic Policy Institute)预期该政策在未来数年就会增加35万个就业岗位。

  抵押贷款再融资

  支持观点:让受困的购房者更易于再融资,将减少丧失抵押品赎回权发生,降低房贷付款额,让人们有更多的钱用于消费。一些经济学家称可增加数万个就业岗位。

  反对观点:很多购房者的未偿还房贷金额已超过房屋价格,因此不能享受再融资的低利率。降低标准允许购房者进行再融资或不会受到银行业和次级贷款保险商的欢迎,它们不愿为更易于违约的高风险借贷者提供再融资服务。

  政治因素:白宫或不会提出有益高风险负债人的一项彻底方案。负责监管房利美(Fannie Mae)和房地美(Freddie Mac)的美国住房金融局(the Federal Housing Finance Agency)并未表态支持该方案。相反,白宫或将扩大一项现存再融资项目,该项目的审查更为严格,只为认为合适的购房者提供再融资。该项目已为83.8万人提供了再融资服务,但被批评缺乏广泛影响,部分原因是,多达400万的购房者看上去符合相关要求却没有得到帮助。(
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English version:

When President Obama unveils his jobs plan to Congress next week, he'll have to balance his desire for spending on programs that might stimulate the economy against the nation's current appetite for cost cutting. We examine the pros, cons and politics of six proposals that might make Obama's list:

Extension of the payroll tax "holiday"

Pros: The cut in payroll tax, which funds Social Security, is scheduled to expire on Dec. 31. Proponents say the reduction delivers two benefits: increasing employees' cash flow and, in turn, their spending — which stimulates the economy; and making it cheaper for employers to hire. They also say it helps those who most need the extra cash — and those most likely to spend the savings — because payroll tax burden is disproportionately borne by lower- and middle-income earners.

Cons: The tax cut has yet to measurably stimulate spending or hiring. They also argue that the cut only helps those with jobs rather than the unemployed, who most need the break.

Politics: The White House wants to extend the tax cut for another year as a centerpiece of its economic policy. President Obama has said it puts an extra $1,000, on average, in the pockets of Americans. But Congressional Republicans may object. They complain that the cut adds to the budget deficit and advocate an overhaul of tax policy as a better alterative.


Extension of unemployment insurance benefits

Pros: Puts money in the hands of those who most need it and are most likely to spend it immediately — which helps the private sector, generating increased sales revenue that encourages businesses to hire.

Cons: Increases government spending. Also, some economists say unemployment benefits tend to extend the length of an individual's joblessness (removing their incentive to find work, some critics say). And because employers pay for unemployment benefits, an extension of the payments can discourage hiring.

Politics: The president has asked Congress for another extension and is expected to reiterate the call in his jobs plan. The current extension is set to expire in January. Congress has approved five extensions since 2009, and the move is a popular one among most Americans. But doing so again cuts against the congressional supercommittee that soon will start its work finding spending cuts.

Tax cuts for employers

Pros: Tax credits for employers who hire, increase work hours or raise wages. Most economists support the plan as a smart approach that directly spurs job creation. Some economists add that a soundly crafted policy could create a couple million jobs over the next two years.

Cons: Gives tax breaks to employers who would hire anyway, potentially minimizing the impact on the most struggling industries.

Politics: Some liberal lawmakers balk at issuing tax breaks to some employers, particularly in industries that outsource or refuse to bring their overseas profits back to the U.S. (to avoid taxation). But Obama has embraced the approach, as have Republicans.

Reduce regulations and sign trade agreements

Pros: Proponents, such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, say businesses will save on the huge costs of complying with unnecessary regulations, freeing them to hire more and reinvest in operations.

Also, passing pending trade agreements, the Chamber says, would save about 380,000 jobs and create thousands more in the U.S.

Cons: And many economists say regulatory reform would help but not on a scale great enough to significantly jolt the economy. Regarding trade, economists caution that trade deals that must be evaluated by whether they would increase U.S. exports rather than simply boost U.S. imports — an easier bar to clear.

Politics: Many Democrats say deregulation is a slippery slope and point to the deregulation of the financial industry as a cause of the mortgage meltdown and financial crisis.

Infrastructure spending

Pros: Construction projects that improve roads, bridges, rail and expand mass transit are the lifeblood of any healthy economy, most politicians and economists agree. To that end, the president has asked that Congress reauthorize the Surface Transportation Act, which some economists say would create about 14,000 jobs for every billion dollars spent on such projects.

Cons: Republican lawmakers chafe at the increased spending. The president's budget proposes $556 billion over six years, more than doubling transportation spending over the next decade.

Politics: Even the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which has attacked most of Obama's economic policies, supports such plans for "rebuilding our economic platform." These projects are politically popular outside Washington because they create jobs at the state and local levels, in both the public and private sectors. The Economic Policy Institute estimates the president's proposal would add 350,000 jobs from over the next years alone.

Mortgage refinancing

Pros: Making it easier for struggling homeowners to refinance would reduce foreclosures and lower mortgage payments, putting more money back in people's pockets for spending. Some economists say doing so also would create tens of thousands of jobs.

Cons: Many homeowners owe more than their properties are currently worth and don't qualify to receive the low rates available through refinancing. Relaxing the standards to allow them to refinance anyway might not be popular with banks and underwriters of second mortgages, who are reluctant to refinance riskier borrowers who are more likely to default.

Politics: The White House isn't likely to enact a sweeping program that might benefit riskier borrowers. And the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which regulates Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, hasn't embraced many such programs. Instead, the White House may expand an existing refinance program that more carefully targets suitable homeowners. The program has helped some 838,000 people refinance, but has been roundly criticized as lacking broad impact — in part because as many as 4 million homeowners appear to have met eligibility requirements but received no assistance.
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