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[闲谈] AAPL危急,TECH 危急,牛牛危急!

CRAMER已经不再那么BULLISH了。

Cramer's View of the Market Is Now 'Grim'
Published: Monday, 11 Apr 2011 | 7:07 PM ET Text Size By: Drew Sandholm
Web Producer


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Two headwinds ended Cramer's 18 months of "bullishness" and left with with a more "grim" view of the market, he said Monday.




An investor's worldview decides how much he or she is willing to pay for earnings, the "Mad Money" host explained. One with a negative worldview, for example, will be less willing to pay up for a company's projected earnings, he said. Those who think the economy is deteriorating will pay less for stocks.

"After 18 months of incredible bullishness, my worldview has just become a lot more grim," Cramer said, adding that he thinks individual stocks can still go higher, though.There have been numerous takeover bids in the past few days, which has helped nullify some of his negative worldview. Stocks can also get a boost when analysts issue an upgrade, although Cramer doesn't think they're worth banking on. Companies can help their stocks to go higher by boosting dividends, as McCormick [MRK  33.59    -0.08  (-0.24%)   ] and Freeport-McMoRan [FCX  55.44    -1.79  (-3.13%)   ] have recently. Other companies can help their stocks by spinning off lagging businesses. In some cases, a company's stock can be helped by purchasing a lagging business, as Diamond Foods [DMND  60.09    -1.52  (-2.47%)   ] had with its purchase of Procter & Gamble's [PG  62.19    0.29  (+0.47%)   ] Pringles.

The market could either be exuberant or muted to good news, Cramer said. It all depends upon the "big picture," which sets the overall tone for the market. For the last 18 months, Cramer thought the big picture was "terrific." During that time, the market was being helped by the monetary policies of Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke, he said. The market has now run into two significant headwinds, though: higher oil prices and the debt ceiling.

"Higher oil means higher costs for businesses in so many ways. It means a slowdown in new autos, as people associate not buying a new car, or switching to mass transit, with saving money and offsetting the increased cost of gasoline," Cramer said. "It means higher gas, which means a tax on the consumer, making it too difficult for people to afford Lobsterfest at Darden's [DRI  46.69    -0.20  (-0.43%)   ] Red Lobster."

A decline in oil prices on Monday helped consumers avoid seeing the price for a gallon of gas skyrocket to $4. It is critical for the health of the economy that gas not go that high, Cramer said. He wants to see oil prices fall below $100 a barrel.
Meanwhile, Cramer is concerned about the debt ceiling, too. The U.S. government borrows trillions of dollars to finance spending on things like Social Security and the military, Cramer explained. If other countries try the U.S. to keep its fiscal house in order, though, they could demand the U.S. raise interest rates. Businesses borrow money every day and at a higher rate than the government. A rate hike would not only affect businesses, but it would make selling the old housing inventory more difficult. Homebuilding would be further delayed and companies would be less likely to start aggressively hiring again.

To Cramer, if oil continues to climb and the debt ceiling isn't raised, it won't matter what action Bernanke takes. These two outside forces will make investors pay less for stocks, or sell them en masse. For that reason, Cramer suggests investors sell into strength.
CRAMER was probably scared by the high-flying oil and commodity prices,,,, yes, these things have to go down in order for the bulls not to derail.
苹果大哥帅先止跌企稳,标志着短期TECH卖压消化殆尽。

草了QLD at $86.00, 本来想搞TQQQ的。
苹果已经无孔不入了。


iPads take a place next to crayons in kindergartenA, B, C, i? As kindergarten classes add iPads, critics fear they're wasted on the young


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Kindergartener Lucius Rice, 6, center, demonstrates to Kindergarten teachers Sue larue, left to right, Kelly McCarthy and Amy Himerl, how to uses an iPad as literacy teacher Maurie Dufour, right, looks on, Tuesday, April 12, 2011 in Auburn, Maine. The teachers were given iPads to try out in preparation for next year when nearly 300 kindergartners will be given their own iPad2s. (AP Photo/Joel Page)
Clarke Canfield, Associated Press, On Tuesday April 12, 2011, 6:35 pm
PORTLAND, Maine (AP) -- Kindergarten classes are supplementing crayons, finger paints and flashcards with iPads, a development that excites supporters but that detractors worry is wasted on pupils too young to appreciate the expense.

Next fall, nearly 300 kindergartners in the central Maine city of Auburn will become the latest batch of youngsters around the country to get iPad2 touchpad tablets to learn the basics about ABCs, 1-2-3s, drawing and even music.

"It's definitely an adventure, and it'll be a journey of learning for teachers and students," said Auburn kindergarten teacher Amy Heimerl, who received an iPad on Tuesday ahead of the full deployment in the fall. "I'm looking forward to seeing where this can take us and our students."

But the $200,000 that Superintendent Tom Morrill is proposing to spend on iPads -- which retail for around $500 -- might be better spent on some other school program, said Sue Millard of Auburn, who has children in the fourth grade and high school. She also questions whether kindergartners are old enough to appreciate the effort.

"I understand you have to keep up with technology, but I think a 5-year old is a little too young to understand," she said.

Maine was the first state to equip students statewide with computers when it distributed Apple laptops to all seventh- and eighth-graders in 2002 and 2003. The program has since expanded, with laptops parceled out to about 50 percent of high school students.

The state Department of Education says it believes Auburn is the first school district in Maine that will give iPads to kindergartners. The school board last week unanimously approved the plan to give all kindergartners iPads next fall.

The iPad is a powerful education tool with hundreds of teaching applications, Morrill said. With its touchpad screen, it's simple to use and can bring learning to life with imagery and sounds, he said.

"It's a revolution in education," Morrill said.

Apple spokeswoman Trudy Muller declined to comment on how iPads are being used in schools, but dozens of school districts around the country have been giving iPads to students. Schools in Omaha, Neb.; Columbiana, Ohio; Huntington, W. Va.; Paducah, Ky.; Charleston, S.C.; and Scottsdale, Ariz., are among the places where kindergarten pupils are using them.

Angus King, the former Maine governor who launched the state's laptop program, said the idea of iPads in kindergarten wows him. Anything that holds the attention of pupils will help in the learning process, he said.

"If your students are engaged, you can teach them anything," King said. "If they're bored and looking out the window, you can be Socrates and you're not going to teach them anything. These devices are engaging."

Morrill is convinced that in the end, using iPads to teach kindergarten will lead to improved student proficiency scores.

Heimerl, one of five kindergarten teachers in the district who got iPads on Tuesday, was impressed as she checked out apps for phonics, building words, letter recognition and letter formation.

"The more education teachers have using these tools the better we can enhance children's learning and take them to that next level," said Heimerl, a teacher at Park Avenue Elementary School.

Not everyone is sold. Larry Cuban, professor emeritus of education at Stanford University and the author of "Oversold and Underused: Computers in Schools," said there's no proof that computers bring learning benefits to pupils that young.

"There's no evidence in research literature that giving iPads to 5-year-olds will improve their reading scores," he said.

Peter Pizzolongo of the National Association for the Education of Young Children, based in Washington, said iPads can be an effective supplement to three-dimensional objects, whether they be books or building blocks.

"We can't say whether what the school district in Maine or anywhere else is doing is good or not good, but what we can say is when the iPad or any other technological tool is used appropriately, then it's a good thing for children's learning," he said.

The best use of iPads is probably in elementary and special education classes because the devices are so easy to use, said Nick Sauers of Iowa State University's Center for the Advanced Study of Technology Leadership in Education. There are hundreds of education apps to choose from with a touch to the screen.

Sauers expects a boom soon, with most current iPad initiatives being billed as pilot or experimental programs.

"I think next year is when we'll see our first big bubble," Sauers said. "There will be districts next year that implement it school-wide, whether it be at the high school level or elementary level."

Morrill said most of the criticism has been about the costs during tough economic times -- not about whether tablet computers are age-appropriate.

He said he plans to raise the money needed for about 325 iPads and teacher training from foundations, the federal government, the local school department and other sources.

As bullish as he is on the kindergarten iPad, he cautions that it needs to be properly supervised and isn't a panacea.

"I'm not saying they should be on this 24-7," he said. "The students still need to move, get up, dance, socialize."
苹果大哥王者归来,柰子拉开了新一轮上涨的序幕。
苹果大哥王者归来,柰子拉开了新一轮上涨的序幕。
大傻 发表于 2011-4-13 07:54

大傻昨天买了不少,一定很紧张吧
江南有丹桔,经冬犹绿林。 岂伊地气暖,自有岁寒心。 可以荐佳客,奈何阻重深。 运命唯所遇,循环不可寻。 徒言树桃李,此木岂无阴。
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