[原创] JCG是绝版吗？

黄老泻

炒股炒股，炒多少年都不如一下子就撞大运逮着个JCG/POT/BUCY/BJ等等这样的被收购股，股价一夜之间暴涨20%～60%，要是买的靠则一夜之间20X甚至5/600X！

JCG这样的收购股是绝版吗？著名砖家克雷默儿给出了一些他想象中的候选人：

原文转载如下：

Cramer's Top Buyout Candidates
Published: Tuesday, 23 Nov 2010 | 3:35 PM ET Text Size By: Drew Sandholm
Web Producer



After J Crew said on Tuesday it agreed to be taken private for roughly $2.86 billion, many investors wonder which retailer could be taken out next. Of the many retail names being mentioned, Cramer thinks two are "kind of interesting."

Cramer likes the idea of Urban Outfitters [URBN  38.32    0.58  (+1.54%)   ] as a buyout candidate. A $12 billion company, he said its management wants to be innovative, but gets resistance from Wall Street. It also has an "aggressive buyback" plan.




Limited Brands [LTD  33.63    0.64  (+1.94%)   ] could also be taken out, Cramer said. The Columbus, Ohio-based company has great fundamentals, as it operates the Victoria's Secret, Bath & Body Works and The White Barn Candle Company brands, among others. But Cramer thinks it could do better as a private company and then split up into individual companies if it were to become public again.

Five other names are being mentioned as possible takeout candidates, but Cramer isn't buying it. Those names include:

Abercrombie & Fitch [ANF  48.79    0.35  (+0.72%)   ]: This would be "dangerous" because it's a teen retailer, Cramer said.

Gap [GPS  20.66    0.07  (+0.34%)   ]: The San Francisco-based operator of Old Navy, Banana Republic and other brands has lots of cash, but he thinks private equity isn't interested. He also doesn't think the stock has much upside in a public or private market.

J.C. Penney [JCP  32.79    0.41  (+1.27%)   ]: The Plano, Texas-based company doesn't have the balance sheet to attract a buyout, he argued.

Macy's [M  25.90    0.45  (+1.77%)   ]: The "Mad Money" host thinks a takeover is "highly unlikely."

RadioShack [RSH  18.96    -0.06  (-0.32%)   ]: If it hasn't happened by now, he doesn't think it's happening.

tfmegatron

JCG肯定不是绝版，但是这种事是可遇不可求的，缘分，唯有缘分，和MM的缘分，哈哈

黄老泻

JCG MC：2.8B

URBN MC：6.2B
LTD MC：10.7B
ANF MC：4.3B
GPS MC：12.7B
JCP MC：7.7B
M MC：10.8B
RSH MC：2.2B

我首先把超过10B的排除，按照溢价30%收购的话，似乎13～15B收购代价太高，剩下：
URBN MC：6.2B

ANF MC：4.3B

JCP MC：7.7B

RSH MC：2.2B

黄老泻

JCG P/E:18

URBN P/E：24

ANF P/E：37

JCP P/E：25

RSH P/E：11

ANF P/E太高，淘汰。

剩下：


URBN P/E：24



JCP P/E：25

RSH P/E：11

何鸿燊

多谢老泻！

黄老泻

URBN SHORT INT：16%
机构持股比例：86%
TOP5机构：
FMR LLC         12,875,879
VANGUARD GROUP ...         6,502,861
WELLS FARGO & C...         5,573,614
CAPITAL GUARDIA...         5,231,998
WINSLOW CAPITAL...         5,161,137

JCP SHORT INT：12%
机构持股比例：缺
TOP5机构：
EVERCORE TRUST ...         25,626,725
STATE STREET CO...         25,533,892
SG AMERICAS SEC...         19,527,538
PERSHING SQUARE...         15,711,994
PZENA INVESTMEN...         15,079,154

RSH SI：8%
机构持股比例：99%
TOP5机构：
IVORY INVESTMEN...         8,405,358
VANGUARD GROUP ...         7,005,140
FMR LLC         6,457,787
LSV ASSET MANAG...         4,889,207
STATE STREET CO...         4,191,587
这一轮该淘汰谁呢？

tfmegatron

这个就跟买彩票，根据数字算下一期彩票开什么数字一样，厚厚！

黄老泻

最省钱的应该是RSH，但是一般大家参与过项目投标的都知道一句话：“不以最低价为中标依据。”
只能看看图了：

黄老泻

黄老泻

黄老泻

黄老泻

这里列出JCG的前五名持股机构：
FMR LLC         9,430,805
BAMCO INC /NY/         5,768,080
LORD ABBETT & C...         3,854,567
VANGUARD GROUP ...         2,744,908
COLUMBIA WANGER...         2,353,350

黄老泻

BUCY的前五名持股机构：
FMR LLC         5,204,661
PRICE T ROWE AS...         3,008,768
VANGUARD GROUP ...         2,846,183
EARNEST PARTNER...         2,598,186
RAINIER INVESTM...         2,522,515

黄老泻

BJ的前五名持股机构：
FMR LLC         5,115,475
CREDIT SUISSE A...         3,127,255
LSV ASSET MANAG...         2,573,660
VANGUARD GROUP ...         2,315,926
HUSSMAN ECONOME...         2,220,000

黄老泻

MEE的前五名持股机构：
FMR LLC         13,372,175
BLACKROCK ADVIS...         9,122,304
STATE STREET CO...         5,612,732
VANGUARD GROUP ...         4,934,385
VAN ECK ASSOCIA...         3,800,322