[转贴] April 27, 2014 Weekend Update

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This past week started off strongly again as stocks were up for six days straight. Economic data was mostly positive and earnings continued to push equities into mid-week.  Starting Wednesday, stocks were mostly lower on disappointing Chinese and U.S. economic data. Earnings also weighed on stocks. New home sales for March surprised and declined 14.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 384,000, the lowest level in eight months. April manufacturing PMI data was weak but Durable Goods orders were better than expected.  Earnings were also mixed and companies and the government continue to use the weather as a crutch for slowing growth. On Friday, stocks dropped sharply on worries about violence in Ukraine and intervention by Russia. Also, tech stocks tugged down on equities as Amazon (AMZN) reported rising costs and slimmer margins. For the week, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) fell minimally by 0.1% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) slumped 0.3%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) fell 0.5% and the small caps (RUT) led losses by falling 1.3%. The Nasdaq should have been down more but its main component, Apple (AAPL), cut the losses due to the balance sheet changes they made by announcing a stock split.



Option Volatility rose slightly due to the sell-off into the end of the week. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose 5% for the week as the Bears took over after the recent rally.  Traders continue to buy into any dips as catalysts for the anticipated correction are not taking hold. If the tensions in Ukraine escalate we could see a nice rise in the ‘Fear Gauge’ as traders take on more option protection.  The U.S. and Europe are supposed to announce additional sanctions against Russia which could also pressure equity markets in the near-term.



Treasury yields were mostly down this past week on moderate flight into the safety of bonds. Rates were down Monday and mixed Tuesday on belief that the Fed will raise policy rates before the mid-range notes mature.The biggest move, although still modest, was Thursday as rates dipped on a rise in initial jobless claims, a strong seven-year T-note auction, and some rattling by Russian President Putin of potential Russian intervention in Ukraine. Oil futures (/CL) fell this past week on expectations that stockpiles would be reported as rising. The government report out on Wednesday affirmed this and showed U.S. supplies hit the highest level in 83 years. This did nothing to offset gas prices as they continued to rise into the summer driving season.



Earnings should continue to be a major driver of stocks this week.  The big news this coming week will come from the FOMC and from the Labor Department with Friday's employment situation for April. While positive, the March private payroll number slowed a bit. The question for April is whether there will be a weather rebound. The Fed appears to have taper on a tentative schedule of a $10 billion reduction each FOMC meeting. Will it continue? Also, we get the advance estimate for first quarter GDP and March personal income this week.


Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:

Monday:  BWLD, CLGX, GGP, GLW, HIG, HLF, JEC, L, NOV, SOHU, SU



Tuesday: ADM, AFL, BSX, CHKP, CMI, DDD, EBAY, ESRX, ETN, FISV, FRX, GT, MLM, MRK, NOK, PCAR, PES, PNRA, S, STX, TWTR, VLO, WWW, X



Wednesday: ABX, ADT, ATML, D, EXC, GRMN, H, HES, HSP, JDSU, MET, NI, PSX, SAM, SO, TSO, TWX, WMB, WLP, YELP



Thursday:  AKAM, AMT, ANR, AVP, BEAM, BZH, CI, CLX, DPZ, EXPE, FLR, GG, K, LINE, MWW, MYL, TEVA, VRTX, WYNN, XOM



Friday: CVX, CTB, CVS, NWL



Economic Releases (4/28-5/2):

Monday:

9:00 am CT – Pending Home Sales

9:30 am CT – Dallas Fed Mfg. Survey

                                                                                                                                                                                

Tuesday:

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales

8:00 am CT – S&P Case-Shiller HPI

9:00 am CT – Consumer Confidence

                                                                                                                                                                                                              

Wednesday:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

7:15 am CT – ADP Employment Report

7:30 am CT – Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

7:30 am CT – Employment Cost Index

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

1:00 pm CT – FOMC Meeting Announcement

                    

Thursday:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT –Personal Income and Outlays

7:30 am CT – Fed’s Yellen Speaks

9:00 am CT– PMI Mfg. Index

9:00 am CT– ISM Mfg. Index

9:00 am CT– Construction Spending

9:30 am CT– Natural Gas Inventories

                                                                                                                                                                                                        

Friday:

7:30 am CT – U.S. Jobs Report

9:00 am CT – Factory Orders

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