The technical reasons were spending 3 days above the 200 day moving average. The fundamental reasons were several pieces of proof that US economy is expanding. Heck, even the jobs picture is finally on the mend.
Tuesday’s strong advance on no news is further proof that the bias is to the upside. But now we are coming face to face with another earnings season.
So far there have been a modest 22 reports this earnings season. Unfortunately their results are sub-par which has some concerned about what happens the rest of earnings season.
Here is my guess. We have enjoyed 11 straight impressive earnings seasons since we bottomed in March 2009. I think that the positive trend is still in place. Yet, this one will be a notch less impressive. Perhaps the word “mixed” is more accurate.
Meaning that those already fearful about demand from Europe, China or other developing nations will have enough weak reports to point to as proof of our coming demise. Yet, when we pull back to the big picture, most companies will have exceeded estimates and given solid guidance for the future, which will support higher stock prices.
These mixed results also point to there being BIG winners and BIG losers this earnings season. Even more so than usual. So those with an effective earnings whisper strategy have a BIG leg up on the rest of investors.
And I reviewed each of our picks today with these whispers in mind. Gladly all passed this test.
This DOES NOT guarantee that we won’t have some losers on our hands. Given history we will probably have 2 or 3 that will need to be kicked out of RTA this earnings season.
Rather this whisper check just decreases the likelihood of these negative events. And increases the likelihood of positive surprises with future share price advancement.
Bring on earnings season! |
发表于 2012-1-10 21:09
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