本帖最后由 何鸿燊 于 2011-12-12 19:35 编辑
The Next Hurdle for Stocks:
The New Year could bring out the best in equities. For months, U.S. stocks have marched to the beat of the financial media, rising and falling lockstep with the developing eurozone crisis. But if stocks can break free from the international headlines, we could see the birth of a significant rally in 2012.
Here’s what will need to happen in order to spark a stock market [2] rally:
The S&P has to overcome its choppy second-half performance — Buy-and-hold [3] investors and traders alike have been burned by volatility ever since the August crash. With wild price swings that have ultimately led to sideways action, it has been nearly impossible for market participants to capitalize [4] on shorter-term trends or pinpoint entries for long-term plays.
Now, there’s a light at the end of the tunnel. The S&P 500 is quickly approaching its 200-day moving average [5]. Rising above this long-term moving average [6] is the first step toward a return to a positive trend:
S&P 500 Large Cap Index
The 200-day moving average is represented by the blue line in the above chart, and I’ve circled the recent indecision stocks have displayed near this important resistance area. We’ll need to see stronger buying to top 1265 and begin a move toward the late October highs. Obviously, stocks are retreating today — and we could see a pullback toward 1220 before another legitimate push toward resistance.
Investors will need to view the U.S. as the best place for their money — We’re already seeing international investors beginning to turn to U.S. equities. In a recent Bloomberg poll, 41 percent of international investors believe the U.S. will have one of the best performing markets in 2012. That’s the highest rating from international investors in more than two years.
This increasingly bullish [8] attitude makes sense. Investors are avoiding Europe for obvious reasons, and concerns over the sustainability of current growth rates continue to dog Chinese stocks. Money will have to flow somewhere — and that somewhere could be U.S. equities. Compared to other options, stocks could very well be the investment vehicle of choice next year. According to the Bloomberg poll, 43 percent of international investors said they plan to increase their exposure to U.S. stocks in the next six months. A significant increase in demand could propel stocks beyond 2011 highs.
The pros need to improve performance to restore investor confidence — Fewer than 24% of funds tracked by Morningstar have topped their benchmarks so far this year, according to Bloomberg. That’s positively dismal. In fact, it’s the worst performance professional investors have assembled since 1999.
When financial industry performance is down, individual investors are typically scared out of stocks. After all, how could an uninformed retail investor [9] make money in the market if the majority of professionals are losing money? That’s the mindset we’re currently dealing with. Many investors — professionals and the armchair variety — are sitting on their hands in the hopes that the market decides on a direction. With a virtual clean slate in January, it’s up to money managers to show their worth during the first quarter. If the pros prove that they’ve figured it out, we could see investors move from cash to stocks. |
发表于 2011-12-12 20:33
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