[转贴] ２０１１十个投资想法

peachdream

With that in mind, here are my ten thoughts for investing in 2011 and beyond:

• The eurozone is a scary place to be.  The basic problem is that there  are huge economic distortions that have resulted from the introduction of the euro as the sole currency.  What  needs to happen is "price convergence"; nominal prices are too high relative to intrinsic values in the PIIGS  and too low in the "Northern Block" of Germany, Netherlands, Finland,  and Austria relative.  Unless eurozone officials begin to recognize that the  issue has absolutely nothing to do with sovereign debt (which is merely a  symptom of the "price convergence" issue), then it's almost inevitable  that there will eventually be a national bankruptcy.  As "cheap" as  things look in the eurozone, I'm still hesitant to invest there, until I see some indication that eurozone policymakers "get it."
• China could very well see its bubble burst sometime in the next few years.  Official have no control over the "shadow banking" system,  which will continue to pump money into the economy, in spite of  economic signals that suggest there needs to be less money there.  All  of this goes back to the dollar peg, which has eroded purchasing power  and has squeezed consumers, which is driving inflation.  It's also  driving the asset bubbles there; it makes sense from a logical  perspective if you are a consumer to buy hard assets so that your money  does not erode in value, as your currency continues to be artifically weakened. Yet, the Chinese economy does not need more real  estate or gold. Nor does it need more manufacturing capacity.  There is  massive oversupply to external economies and undersupply to the consumer  space. I don't know how long it will take, but eventually, the house of  cards will crumble and the carnage might be ugly.
• The United States is  slowly recovering. It is held back by the currency distortions in Asia  and the eurozone crisis; however, things in the domestic sphere are  starting to look better.  Only problem is that aggregate demand is  lagging behind everything else.  Businesses are now sitting on massive cash hordes, but won't invest that money, because they see nowhere to  invest it. Until aggregate demand rises, this pattern could continue.  My guess is that we continue to see recovery at slow pace, but the  economy will recover all the same.  The US will be one of the better places to invest this decade if you are looking at the long-haul.
• Latin  America and South America are the two best "emerging market" areas to  invest.  Latin American economies have actually been held back by the  currency wars in East Asia.  The currency manipulations of the East  Asian nations are starting to backfire and this benefits Latin America  more in the future.
• US homebuilders are very  cheap right now.  Who knows how long before we see "normalized"  production again, but at the current prices, I see no reason not to buy in, sit  around, and wait on it.
• Small and regional  banks will eventually prove to be a great investment, but it may take  awhile, and one must be very careful about which banks they are buying.   But even if you want to play it safe, you can find well capitalized  banks that are selling at or below tangible common equity and will  probably benefit from higher interest rates in the future. I'm looking at you Hudson City (HCBK) --- but there are others out there, as well.
• Public REITs with lots of cash and liquid assets could potentially  benefit from some of the distressed debt coming due in the next few  years.  The private RE companies' suffering will be the public REITs'  gain.
• Pain in Asia has the potential to filter out quite a ways.  Think Australia. And maybe Canada.
• If China's economy dramatically slows, gold, silver, and copper could  all see negative price action.  China's gold buying in 2010 has  increased five-fold from gold buying in 2009.  If this demand collapses,  gold prices could drop considerably.  While this might only mean a 10% -  30%  drop in the price of gold, it could be much more harsh on  vulnerable gold miners, particularly the major gold miners who have been  purchasing new resources at inflated prices.  Silver miners are also a  very scary bet right now and extraction costs are nowhere near the spot  price. Of course, the bubble could continue to motor on for another 6-24  months; but I think the risks are definitely starting to get higher and  investors need to be more concerned about the downside.
• Investors might be forgetting the rule of "abnormal earnings" in regards to Netflix (NFLX).  "Abnormal earnings" is an  economic term that implies that a "normal profit" exists and that if a  firm is earning above that, it achieves an "abnormal" profit.  Abnormal profits entice new competitors to enter into an industry.  Unless there  are significant barriers to entry, a firm will have difficulty  maintaining those abnormal earnings for an extended period of time.

Poo