[闲谈] Employers in 2010 Announced Fewest U.S. Job Cuts in 13 Years zt

何鸿燊

By Courtney Schlisserman - Jan 5, 2011 Employers in 2010 announced the fewest job cuts since 1997 as the U.S. economy recovered from the worst recession since the 1930s, a private survey showed.

There were 529,973 planned firings last year, down 59 percent from 2009 when job cuts reached a seven-year high, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. The Chicago-based outplacement firm said December firings dropped 29 percent from the same month a year earlier.

Employers announced 32,004 job cuts last month, the fewest since June 2000. While firings are slowing, job growth has been restrained, highlighting why Federal Reserve officials said they’ll move forward with a plan to purchase $600 billion in bonds to bolster the economy.

It was “still a lackluster year for the overall job market,” John A. Challenger, chief executive officer of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, said in a statement. “Hiring in the private sector is expected to once again be slow and steady” in 2011, he said.

Compared with November, job cut announcements declined by 34 percent.

Employers announced plans to hire 10,575 workers in December, down from 26,012 in November and 35,592 a year earlier. Companies last year announced plans to hire 403,038 workers, according to today’s report. Automotive and retail companies led the December job addition announcements, with 4,475 and 2,000, respectively.

December Employment

A Jan. 7 report from the Labor Department may show companies added 150,000 jobs in December, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of economists. Including government agencies, employment rose 140,000 last month, according to the survey.

Challenger’s data do not always correlate with figures on payrolls or first-time jobless claims as reported by the government. Many job cuts are carried out through attrition or early retirement. Some employees whose job are eliminated find work elsewhere in their companies and many announced staff reductions never take place because business improves. The totals also include foreign affiliates.

The economy added 39,000 jobs in November and the unemployment rate rose to 9.8 percent, according to Labor Department data. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News last month forecast the rate will remain above 9 percent for a third straight year in 2011, averaging 9.4 percent.

何鸿燊

Two back to back off the wall figures in ADP.  Usually the government's monthly report comes in about 70-80K higher than ADP but November's 92K in the ADP report was strangely much higher than the government report 2 days later, which came in below 40K.

This time we have an off the charts figure of just under 300,000 in ADP.   Obviously we have a lot of seasonal hiring in December but one would think this is adjusted away somehow.  Almost all gains were in the service providing sector: +270K which would make sense in terms of a big jump in seasonal retail.  

whatever the case the expectation for Friday's reports should go up but right now the relatiinship between ADP and government data seems more out of sync than normal.

January should likewise be interesting as we see how many of these gains potentially fade away as some seasonal workers are let go.  I thought the numbers this Friday would be positive to make up for a very strange November report, but no one is looking for 300Kish.

not4weak

But why the market dropped?